TX Severe Threat...this evening through Friday Night

[jeff]

WW 179 in effect through midnight for a large part of N and C TX including the DFW area.

Dry line starting to erupt as CINH weakens from S OK into N TX W of Fort Worth to E of Abilene. Weak shear should preclude a widespread outbreak as is currently taking place over the C plains.

Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms can be expected along the dry line this evening. Main threats will be large hail with a few extreme reports possible. Convection will be tied closely to the dry line and will weaken by late evening as capping increases. Southward surging frontal boundary may keep storms alive over parts of N TX into Friday morning, although this is conditional on low level inflow and amount of capping.

Friday afternoon and evening:

Cold front will slow across C and E TX Friday. Strong surface heating will result in a very unstable atmosphere by late afternoon. Severe thunderstorms will likely erupt by late afternoon from S of Waco to C LA. Storms should gradually congeal into a broken line or MCS and push S to SSW through the evening hours. Highest severe threat appears in a corridor from Huntsville TX to Victoria TX along a moisture and instability axis. Pooling of PWS in this region (around 2.0 in) and favorbale CAPE may support a SSW moving MCS late into the evening. However, cap will once again be an issue over parts of SC and SE TX and will depend on degree of daytime heating.

[Yankeegirl]

Is Houston in that area? I really am in some need for some storms... ! I am confident that we will get something pretty good, cause one of the local mets isnt to sold on it... I go totally opposite...

[JenBayles]

However, cap will once again be an issue over parts of SC and SE TX and will depend on degree of daytime heating.

The freakin' cap. Always the cap! GRRRRRRRRR!!!!!!!

[vbhoutex]

If that cap breaks early enough I am going out to chase if anything significant builds. Any riders?

[Johnny]

Vis sat. imagery still shows a good amount of cloud cover over Southeast, Texas as of 10:37 am this morning. It does show signs of eroding. I think in the next hour their will be a fair amount of sunshine out and about. It's presently 73 degrees here on the North side of Houston. I've got my Kodak 6490 handy just in case.

[jeff]

Convection starting to develop over EC TX ahead of southward surging cold front. Front is moving faster than forecast and will likely arrive sooner than exected.

Air mass over SE TX and W LA is unstable with CAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg and LI's in the -6 to -8 range. Moisture is pooling from E of KCRP into Matagorda Bay and to near Sugarland and surging northward as noted by 1.8in PW. Animated KLCH sounding shows 2614 of CAPE and LI of -7.1 with rapidly weakening CINH.

Even with the thermodynamic profile favorable for convection a lack of low level inflow, moisture limited below the cap, and weak shear may limit the overall convective threat. No doubt some storms will form and go severe, but they may be fairly isolated and scattered. Should the clouds break more than expected and we reach the forecasted highs in the mid to upper 80's more widespread severe weather will be possible.

[Yankeegirl]

I would love to go chasing, VB, but I have a sick kid at home today! Ya think we are going to get some nasty weather today? Looks pretty unsettled out... I think I am going to run my errands now before it starts raining, I hate taking a full basket from WalMart to the car in the rain! I will bring my camera as well! Just in case!

[Yankeegirl]

Hazardous Weather Outlook

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
700 AM CDT FRI APR 22 2005

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-231200-
AUSTIN-BRAZORIA-BRAZOS-BURLESON-CHAMBERS-COLORADO-FORT BEND-GALVESTON-
GRIMES-HARRIS-HOUSTON-JACKSON-LIBERTY-MADISON-MATAGORDA-MONTGOMERY-
POLK-SAN JACINTO-TRINITY-WALKER-WALLER-WASHINGTON-WHARTON-
700 AM CDT FRI APR 22 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

...SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS THIS
AFTERNOON AND OFF THE COAST AROUND MIDNIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT.
AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 80S THIS AFTERNOON THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL BECOME VERY UNSTABLE. THE COMBINATION OF THIS INSTABILITY AND
FORCING ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CREATE THE POSSIBILITY OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREATS ARE LARGE HAIL
AND STRONG...DAMAGING WINDS. HOWEVER...AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS ALSO
POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT....
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

[Yankeegirl]

Looking at the lightning detection, there really isnt too much lightning ass of yet.. I hope that all changes soon!

Here is the link for the lightning detection.. http://www.katyweather.com/rtl/StormVue.html

[vbhoutex]

Not looking real promising at this time, but that could change rapidly later if we get a break in the clouds. We certainly aren't getting that here in SW Houston tough.

[gboudx]

Hope you guys down there are getting some rain. It's been pretty darn dry up here in DFW the past couple of months. We need to get some rain in May and June, because climatelogically, the skies shut off in July-Aug-Early Sept.

[vbhoutex]

It is dry here too. I think we had about .5" in the last month. If today doesn't bring some rain I will have to start watering.

[Johnny]

The cloud cover is fairly thick here on the North side of Houston. I believe activity will be very scattered with the frontal passage. We've been down this road before.

[gboudx]

It is dry here too. I think we had about .5" in the last month. If today doesn't bring some rain I will have to start watering.

For April, DFW is reporting 0.13" of rain and Love Field a Trace. I've already had to run my sprinklers several times. Now, I guess I'll just go ahead and set them to automatic.

[vbhoutex]

The cloud cover is fairly thick here on the North side of Houston. I believe activity will be very scattered with the frontal passage. We've been down this road before.

I agree. We just had a brief shower here in SW Houston, but it was more of a spit than anything. Radar shows some building but nothing significant yet.

[Johnny]

And the word is now out......


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
115 PM CDT FRI APR 22 2005

.DISCUSSION...
PREFRONTAL TROF MOVING THRU THE AREA MUCH FASTER THAN FCSTED. NOT
TOTALLY RULING OUT REDEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT ITSELF (NOW ALONG A
TPL-GGG LINE) SINCE DEWPOINTS ARE STILL IN THE 60S BEHIND THE TROF.
BUT WITH MOISTURE PROFILE BEING FAIRLY SHALLOW TO BEGIN WITH THIS
TROF DOES NOT HELP THINGS. IN ADDITION...ACARS SOUNDINGS STILL
REVEALS A WARM NOSE AROUND 8K FEET. TEMPS NEED TO WARM WELL INTO THE
UPPER 80S FOR THIS TO BE BROKEN AND OR CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT
NEEDS TO BE SUBSTANTIAL. SO...WILL BE SENDING OUT AN UPDATE REDUCING
POPS ESP NRN ZONES. WILL BE SHIFTING FOCUS TO SRN ZONES FOR THE
SLIGHTLY HIGHER PRECIP CHCS FOR THE REST OF THE AFTN...THOUGH IT
AIN'T LOOKING TOO GOOD RIGHT NOW...

[southerngale]

It's warm and sunny here.

[jeff]

I am very tempted to write this event off, however mostly sunny skies have developed behind the pre frontal trough now along a line from S of Columbus to KHOU to Baytown.

ACARS indicate upper 80's is needed to break the capping in the 850 to 750mb layer or a lot of lift along the front. We will not get good frontal lifting due to the prefrontal trough already through. However 200pm obs should widepsread mid to upper 80's over C TX including 88 at Austin. Over SE TX temps are in the upper 70's and low 80s with 82 at BUSH. It is not out of the question that we could get into the mid or even upper 80's with a few hours of good insolation. Given the clearing skies and some puffy Cu near the front itself storms may still be able to fire by late afternoon. With LI's near -8 and CAPE around 3000 J/kg whatever gets through the cap will go severe.

[Yankeegirl]

Been sunny here for quite some time ....

[Yankeegirl]

Looks like all of the storms now are way to the South of the Houston area... I guess there there is no cap over them...