Look out SE region!...Flooding rain potential Thurs/Friday

[Stormsfury]

The latest model runs tonight show a vigorous s/w and associated low developing along a cold front which should allow copious amounts of GOM moisture to get involved into the system ...

Anywhere from Central Florida northward into Georgia (particularly South and East Georgia) and the Carolinas to be on guard for potentially very heavy soaking rainfalls ... PWAT's (Precipitable Water) in areas will exceed 2" and with the rather slow movement of the system ... I would expect a generalized 1"-3" rainfalls with isolated areas receiving as much as 6" in the heavier storms which train. Flood watches may be required in some of these areas where recent rainfalls have saturated the ground to capacity.

The threat of severe weather is a bit limited due to cloud cover and a lack of instability but I won't completely rule out an isolated severe storm due to strong dynamics. Marginal hail and wet microbursts are possible, with an isolated tornado also possible (most likely in Florida, and Southern GA).

GFS and ETA 60hr QPF Totals

[weatherlover427]

Just what they don't need. :o

[Guest]

The other danger i see is with people that will be heading for the beach this weekend and will be wanting to get into the water even with air temps expected to be only in the 60s at most (Probably 50s from the NJ coast north) because of the nice waves that will be generated with the storm...............Rip currents will be alive and well and i wouldnt suggest going to far out in the water especially the novice and where the beaches arent guarded.............Othern then that like SF said above it looks to be a rainy weekend along the east coast with a flooding potential in the Carolinas, Ga, And VA.............I would agree as well that the severe threat should be mainly limitied to GA and FLA but cant be ruled out elsewhere.............Another thing to watch for is if the storm takes a inland track far enough inland then areas just to the east of the low would have a higher chance of seeing some severe weather........

[chadtm80]

Thanks for the update fury.. Keeps us informed PLEASE

[weatherlover427]

You could use the rain though, right Chad?

[chadtm80]

Oh ya... Grass on life support.. LOL

[Constructionwx]

Just caught Glenn Burns on the news. He's making a pretty good case for some uprooted trees to my S and SE as the L passes by.

[weatherlover427]

Well now that your summer t-storm season seems to be beginning, maybe it won't need CPR anytime soon.

[ColdFront77]

Too bad the precipitation departure from normal doesn't coincide with our need for rain here in central Florida.
Some people may not think having an average rainfall for the year and since March 1st (just below to just
above even) cause for concern, besides our yellow/brown lawns if they haven't been watered enough.

[chadtm80]

[chadtm80]

Possability of sever storms for me here in Volusia county

[Amanzi]

I am so glad it actually looks like we will get some rain here, but other areas in the south do not need the high amounts they are forecasted to get!

Chad and Tom you take care!
NWS MLB
THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A FEW STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...PRODUCING WIND GUSTS NEAR 60 MPH AND LARGE
HAIL. THE SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL WILL BE HIGHEST FROM AROUND THE
ORLANDO METRO AREA AND CAPE CANAVERAL NORTHWARD. THE POTENTIAL ALSO
EXISTS FOR A FEW TORNADOES THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY AS THE STORMS
APPROACH THE EAST COAST...WHERE SHEAR VALUES WILL BE GREATEST.

[therock1811]

Look out this weekend in the SE... Chad, King and SF said all that needs to be said this weekend.

[ColdFront77]

Thank you Bron, you take care too... as well as you, Chad.