Arizona Monsoons This Year?

[riverratmike]

Anyone know what the outlook for monsoons will be this year? I live in Lake Havasu City, AZ. Last year we had quite a few strong monsoon storms. Just curious with all the rain this year, what is the monsoon going to be like in my area? I'd appreciate any info. Thanks.

[Aslkahuna]

My monsoon outlook plus reasoning will be posted on my homepage on May 1st.

Steve

[riverratmike]

thanks guess I'll have to wait a while for a for sure answer

[Aslkahuna]

In the meantime you can read my review of the 2004 monsoon and my outlook verification on my homepage at http://ourworld.compuserve.com/homepages/aslkahuna just scroll down the main page to the contents and got to potpourri and when there go to special topics. There is also monsoon climatology for Tucson and my observing location in the Climatology section. BTW a hint of what my thinking will be is contained in my running outlook in my monthly summary in the climatology section though I will be much more detailed in my monsoon outlook in May.

Steve

[SEAZSky]

Take a look at this information on southern
Arizona monsoons, from the NWS-Tucson:

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/twc/monsoon/monsoon.php

Stan
Oro Valley, AZ (15 miles north of Tucson)

[riverratmike]

Take a look at this information on southern
Arizona monsoons, from the NWS-Tucson:

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/twc/monsoon/monsoon.php

Stan
Oro Valley, AZ (15 miles north of Tucson)

thanks for all the info. with all the rain we had here in AZ this year, I wonder what the monsoon season has in store for us this year? I sure hope it's a good one! 2004 had some really good strong lightning storm here in Lake Havasu City, AZ where I live.

[aveosmth]

Aslkahuna,

It seems as if every once in awhile the coastal sections of Southern California are affected by the monsoon. Our mountains and deserts get the great majority of the action. What does it take for the coastal sections to get more of the monsoonal moisture? I have some thoughts, but I know you definitely know the answer.

[Aslkahuna]

Need to get that Upper Ridge in a position to get the monsoon flow over you and shift the Thermal Trough offshore for SE flow surface and aloft. Also helps to have an EPAC hurricane (or its remnants) in the right location to bring the moisture over coastal sections. Sometimes these remnants will actually track over or just off the SoCA coast and when that happens you get those surprise Summer rains. Rarer, but possible is the situation when a GOM Tropical remnant that makes landfall in S. TX or NE MX moves across NM/AZ into SoCA. These can be severe weather producers in NM/AZ and SE CA.

Steve