STORM2K

Morning here in Oklahoma brought a thick fog, but we expect to have a perfect day here later on, and my family is going to use the opportunity to have a Bar-B-Q later on in the day. My niece is in visiting from Nevada, and having a member of the family return to the fold is a mighty fine excuse to eat huge amounts of charred meat.

Weather folks here have moved our chances of Thunderstorms up to tomorrow night, around 6, since that Low/Cold front is moving more swiftly than originally thought a couple days ago. Seems like those states North of us, Kansas, Nebraska, etc will also get a real taste of some storms, even though TWC seems to be downplaying this system and just giving us folks a chance of wind and rain. I have not seen just a wind and rain event in Oklahoma in May with a powerful cold front, so that would indeed be something.

What really caught my eye when I looked at the National advisory map this morning was the Fire and WIND advisory for Arizona. I would be most appreciative if some of you folk in Arizona would keep me and the rest here apprised of that situation. I had heard a cowboy poem a few years back about wild fires, a fine piece of writing that really captured the intense nature of such things, but alas I could not find it when I did a search online. Did find this picture tho:

Yes indeed, the wind is just now starting to kick up, I've got sustained winds of 19, gusting to over 29 already. The fire situation is DIRE once again, just in time for Memorial Day Weekend, GOD I hope they close the forest before these nimrods burn the rest of the moutain down!!!

Hey Nalora, check out these photos from last years Rodeo Chediski Fire, most of these photos were taken near my house, the WORST week of my life!

http://community.webshots.com/user/azsnowman

Dennis

O'TAY, here's the scoop!

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

AFDFLG

NORTHERN ARIZONA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
325 AM MST SUN MAY 18 2003

.SYNOPSIS...A UPPER LEVEL WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS
ARIZONA TODAY BRINGING WINDY CONDITION AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE UTAH BORDER. FOR THE WORK WEEK
...EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND ABOVE AVERAGE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
AND LIGHT WINDS.

.DISCUSSION...WINDS ALOFT AT AROUND 10K TO 12K FEET ARE IN THE 40 TO
45 KNOT RANGE FROM BRYCE TO BLUE RIDGE THIS MORNING. THE TROUGH
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE WINDS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. THE MOST
LIKELY AREA A HEAD OF THE TROUGH WERE THE PRESSURE/HEIGHT GRADIENT
FIELDS WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR WIND ADVISORY GUSTS WILL BE
SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM FLAGSTAFF TO NAVAJO NATIONAL MONUMENT.
SHOWERS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING ALL READY THIS MORNING AT PAGE AND THE
CANYON...JUST TRACE AMOUNTS. ONE LIGHTNING STRIKE WAS NOTED AROUND
0800Z JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF ARIZONA. THE POP/WX FIELDS HAVE BEEN
UPDATED TO INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
THE UTAH BORDER TODAY AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. HIGH
PRESSURE REGAINS HOLD OVER THE SOUTHWEST BY MONDAY AND CONTINUES
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE HIGH PRESSURE CIRCULATION
SHIFTS OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AREA BY THE WEEKEND. THE GFS SUGGESTS
SOME MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO PORTIONS
OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA INCLUDING PORTIONS OF THE WHITE MOUNTAINS,
EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM AND AS FAR NORTH AS WINDOW ROCK. FOR NOW WE
INCLUDED SOME PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR THE ABOVE MENTIONED AREAS.
TC
.FGZ...WIND ADVISORY FROM 1000 AM MST TO 800 PM MST FOR ZNS
010>017-039-040.



Dennis

azsnowman wrote:Yes indeed, the wind is just now starting to kick up, I've got sustained winds of 19, gusting to over 29 already. The fire situation is DIRE once again, just in time for Memorial Day Weekend, GOD I hope they close the forest before these nimrods burn the rest of the moutain down!!!

Hey Nalora, check out these photos from last years Rodeo Chediski Fire, most of these photos were taken near my house, the WORST week of my life!

http://community.webshots.com/user/azsnowman

Holy Snikes. We get some prairie grass fires here in Oklahoma, but nothing like yall's fires. Am praying you get some rain soon, and NOT JUST LIGHTNING!!

My boyfriend's son and his wife live in Mesa, btw and we plan on going out that way on a visit in late August for the arrival of my boyfriend's first grandchild.

Nalora

Yup yup, our fire season when it gets crankin', makes all other fires look like a girl scout camp fire and marshmeller roast!

Here's the fire weather forecast for today!

White Mountains

AZZ017-190100-
WHITE MOUNTAINS (FIRE WEATHER ZONE 117)-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SHOW LOW...GREER...PINETOP
730 AM MST SUN MAY 18 2003

...RED FLAG WARNING TODAY FROM NOON MST UNTIL 7 PM MST...

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER...........MOSTLY CLOUDY UNTIL 1200...THEN PARTLY CLOUDY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.......69-81 ABOVE 7000 FT...79-84 BELOW 7000 FT.
24 HR TREND........6 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY..........14-17%.
24 HR TREND........5 PERCENT WETTER.
WIND (20 FT)..........SOUTHWEST 10 TO 20 MPH INCREASING TO 10 TO 20
MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 45 MPH IN THE
AFTERNOON
WIND (10000 FT ASL)...SOUTHWEST 35 TO 45 MPH.
CHANCE OF PRECIP......0 PERCENT
LAL...................1.
HAINES INDEX..........4 LOW.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER...........PARTLY CLOUDY UNTIL 2400...THEN MOSTLY CLEAR.
MIN TEMPERATURE.......34-45 ABOVE 7000 FT...41-50 BELOW 7000 FT.
24 HR TREND........2 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY..........61-82% ABOVE 7000 FT...54-66% BELOW 7000 FT.
24 HR TREND........18 PERCENT WETTER.
WIND (20 FT)..........SOUTHWEST 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 35
MPH THROUGH SUNSET THEN BECOMING LIGHT
WIND (10000 FT ASL)...WEST 15 TO 25 MPH.
CHANCE OF PRECIP......0 PERCENT
LAL...................1.
HAINES INDEX..........3 VERY LOW.

.MONDAY...
SKY/WEATHER...........SUNNY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.......69-82 ABOVE 7000 FT...80-84 BELOW 7000 FT.
24 HR TREND........3 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY..........11-14%.
24 HR TREND........4 PERCENT DRIER.
WIND (20 FT)..........WEST 5 TO 15 MPH INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 MPH IN
THE AFTERNOON
WIND (10000 FT ASL)...WEST 10 TO 20 MPH.
CHANCE OF PRECIP......0 PERCENT
LAL...................1.
HAINES INDEX..........6 HIGH.

=
$$

Ventilation Data
VENTILATION DATA...

VENTILATION MIXING HEIGHT TRANSPORT WIND
FLAGSTAFF EXCELLENT 9200 FT AGL SOUTHWEST 31 KT
WHITERIVER EXCELLENT 10000 FT AGL SOUTHWEST 33 KT

OUTLOOK FOR TOMORROW...
FLAGSTAFF VERY GOOD 7500 FT AGL WEST 12 KT
WHITERIVER VERY GOOD 8700 FT AGL WEST 11 KT



Dennis

Stay safe! I hope that AZ does not get hit with another big fire like last summer. I watched the news for updates every day on that fire.

Kristi

Stay safe AZ!!!!

We need the Hopi Indians to do there rain dance.

Yes, the Hopi ppl do a WONDERFUL dance but....the Apache do a GREAT snow dance too "LOL!" We don't need the snow right now thank you!

Dennis

Hey Dennis ... read the thread I just posted.