It looks like rain, smells like rain!
Posted: Tue May 13, 2003 7:36 am
MAN, we sure need some rain, according to the NWS Flag, we JUST might get some, only one BAD thing, we might have some lightning involved with this next system, that AIN'T good :o
EPAC STORM SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE STATE ON WED. TIMING OF
GSF NOW MATCHES THAT OF THE ECMWF AND THE UKMET WHILE THE ETA IS
MUCH SLOWER WITH THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION. DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM ARE IMPRESSIVE WITH MODERATE-STRONG DIVQ VALUES LATE
WEDNESDAY AND INTO THURSDAY. VVEL FIELDS ARE ALSO IMPRESSIVE. LAPSE
RATES QUICKLY DESTABILIZE WITH THE APPROACHING COLD POOL. MODEL
XSECTIONS ALL SHOW NEAR SATURATED MID/UPPER LEVELS WITH HIGH PW
VALUES...ALTHOUGH THE BNDY LAYER REMAINS FAIRLY DRY. BELIEVE THAT
THE COMBINATION OF STRONG DYNAMICS AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL BE
SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION THAT WILL BE EFFECTIVE
AT MOISTENING THE BNDY LAYER. THUS...HAVE BUMPED POPS UP
ACCORDINGLY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE LOW LEVEL
EVAPORATION WILL BE MINIMIZED.
DYNAMICS MOVE OUT OF THE STATE QUICKLY THURSDAY SO EXPECT ONLY
LINGERING SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD POOL. THIS WILL BE GONE
BY THURSDAY EVENING EXCEPT OVER THE EXTREME ERN PORTION OF THE CWFA
WHERE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL REMAIN INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
.EXTENDED...SYSTEM EXITS TO THE EAST AND THE RIDGE BEGINS TO REBUILD
ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS A LARGE AMPLITUDE...
LONG WAVELENGTH TROUGH ESTABLISHES ITSELF ALONG THE WEST COAST.
WINDS SHOULD BE ON THE INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND WITH WINDY
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY. DB
Dennis
EPAC STORM SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE STATE ON WED. TIMING OF
GSF NOW MATCHES THAT OF THE ECMWF AND THE UKMET WHILE THE ETA IS
MUCH SLOWER WITH THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION. DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM ARE IMPRESSIVE WITH MODERATE-STRONG DIVQ VALUES LATE
WEDNESDAY AND INTO THURSDAY. VVEL FIELDS ARE ALSO IMPRESSIVE. LAPSE
RATES QUICKLY DESTABILIZE WITH THE APPROACHING COLD POOL. MODEL
XSECTIONS ALL SHOW NEAR SATURATED MID/UPPER LEVELS WITH HIGH PW
VALUES...ALTHOUGH THE BNDY LAYER REMAINS FAIRLY DRY. BELIEVE THAT
THE COMBINATION OF STRONG DYNAMICS AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL BE
SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION THAT WILL BE EFFECTIVE
AT MOISTENING THE BNDY LAYER. THUS...HAVE BUMPED POPS UP
ACCORDINGLY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE LOW LEVEL
EVAPORATION WILL BE MINIMIZED.
DYNAMICS MOVE OUT OF THE STATE QUICKLY THURSDAY SO EXPECT ONLY
LINGERING SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD POOL. THIS WILL BE GONE
BY THURSDAY EVENING EXCEPT OVER THE EXTREME ERN PORTION OF THE CWFA
WHERE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL REMAIN INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
.EXTENDED...SYSTEM EXITS TO THE EAST AND THE RIDGE BEGINS TO REBUILD
ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS A LARGE AMPLITUDE...
LONG WAVELENGTH TROUGH ESTABLISHES ITSELF ALONG THE WEST COAST.
WINDS SHOULD BE ON THE INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND WITH WINDY
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY. DB
Dennis
. I'm planning on going to Ocean City, MD this Friday and Saturday for a car show and a little bar hopping and it's supposed to rain Friday - Monday temps just barely in the 60's!
