STORM2K

I have used,in Gen Aviation,various products over the years,
Solutions,Charts,upper air,mid level and sfc features,obs,Turb,etc. ASOS,METAR,AWOS,WR-57 B/W 'SweepScope'/WSR-88-D Build '10',reports and relays from other air skippers in Gen and Commercial Av.,TDWR,etc. assist in my final decision to rotate.
However.I like to chart,reload and rechart my Flt Plan Itinerary as specifically as possible.
Models,as you know,depend on Computers.Computers depend on Software.Sofware relies on Data,loaded by..humans.That is the general chronology of the Wx/Aviation 'Trickle Down' effect.
Not often therefore,do I see consistancy in more than a few Model runs,esp when dealing with CONUS and an intense ENSO spawned STJ that has Legs like Tina Turner...long and Muscular.
If I can,I will take the latest runs and compare them to NO LESS than THREE presonal overlays,that I start 36hrs out if possible for a Mid Range Gen Av Flt(500+nm).For a day ride or a Photo flt,I can get away with 18hrs under 300nm R/T.That is pushing it.Many,many pilots just don't bother..I do.The reason?If we have the proverbial '9 Lives' within our lifetime..I'm 'In the Red' by at least 20.Odds are not with me.Therefore,I make use of as many tools as possible.This practice has served me well thus far.Thank goodness for newer Digital Color Avionics,Raytheon Doppler Air/Oceanic Library On-Beam(TY Lear/Bombardier!),CdRom Chart Vector,LTG(Lightning)Display(TY Sankosha!) and a host of other toys that have proven thier worth.
Nothing though is more valuable while in the Exec Hangar than the vaunted 'AVN' or 'Aviation'Model.It has with the assistance of the US Navy
been upgraded immensely over the past 2 yrs.Now..it shows.Just a few yrs ago,I may have come up with a '3'/18hr overlay that I generated from Sfc Charts(hand done and calculated).My Laptop software,then crosschecked the most recent Tower Met's runs.Usually,a good synopsis of expected Wx was generated.Doppler since the Mid 90s has upgraded with the 'Build 10' Software to 'see' Shear Indices at various levels...potentially killer situations.The end results were pretty good..albeit 'Expect/Prepare for the Worst' is the best motto.
Here are the latest as of 08MAY03 0000Zulu Upper Air (Skew T)Soundings/Temp/Saturation/Dew Points/Wind Barbs(Directional &Speed Kt)Potl'Cape/Shear/"Helicity" for some WFOs that will be in the 'Line Of Fire Today'.Note the similarilties and the increase/dropoffs from West to East selected CWAs,which will be the General Direction of the impending Sev Wx.Check
http://weather.unisys.com/upper_air/skew/skew_KOUN.html

http://weather.unisys.com/upper_air/skew/skew_KDDC.html

http://weather.unisys.com/upper_air/skew/skew_KTOP.html

http://weather.unisys.com/upper_air/skew/skew_KLBF.html

http://weather.unisys.com/upper_air/sjew/skew_KOAX.html

http://weather.unisys.com/upper_air/skew/skew_KLZK.html

http://weather.unisys.com/upper_air/skew/skew_KSGF.html

http://weather.unisys.com/upper_air/skew/skew_KBNA.html
***Note***
KOUN=Norman,OK
KDDC=Dodge City,KS
KTOP=Topeka,KS
KLBF=North Platte,NEB
KOAX=Omaha,NEB
KLZK=Little Rock,ARK
KSGF=Springfield,MO
KNBA=Nashville,TN

******************
These are examples of what one may plot as random 'Target Mod/Hi Risk' areas per SPC/NSSL if applicable as a Pilot or Storm Chaser..or BOTH!


The latest versions of the AVN though,in particular..with the most recent Tornadic event,has been outstanding.Here then is what the AVN is showing for today...and I'm impressed with the solution quality and continuity of ALL 4 panels.These panels clearly show the monster Beast brewing (panel #2)lurking,the INTENSE dry line(see panel #4),the Jetmax directional(panel #1)and the Moisture Contents(panel #3).cCheck
http://weather.unisys.com/aviation/12h/ ... l_12h.html
If I were flying today on a '5' stop long range to say,ATL..I would put together 'Regional Overlays' that would sectionalize the expanded view of CONUS that is depicted.Suffice to say,with what I see...I would NOT fly Gen Av..I may have a latent death wish..but I'll not mess with the likes of the Beasts that will end up being ,IMO..the 'Big Eating Dawgs' of the Central Plains and Midwest.
For those that love SevWx,are 'Newbies',Students,Aspiring future Mets,Enthusiasts,etc..don't be intimidated by this information.There are excellent tutorials available through Unisys,TWC,NOAA,etc to help you understand the basics and much more.There are also many members of this BB like myself,aslkahuna,AzSkyman,Jetmaxx,Chad and many more that have many years combined experience in Pro Met and Amateur Met standing with regard to WX and Enviromental Sciences.There is a myriad of experience levels to 'tap' into.
We are all witnessing an HISTORICAL EVENT,ongoing!If one chooses to sit back,relax and take it in,or are the 'Extreme'Type like myself,this is a Great opportunity to learn the 'hows' and 'whys'...afterall this is partially why Wxcybersites like Storm2K exist.Join in,ask questions,or just be in awe.Above all,stay safe!
Careful out there...
Be Well and Safe

VERY nice displays, DJ!

I just checked the 600-mile Doppler based in Cape Girardeau, and found no less than three heavyweight systems coming our way, back-to-back from Ft. Smith AK on up through the Ohio-Mississippi River confluence, and to points east. :o We are directly in their path, so it looks like "another $#|++Y day in Paradise" in Sikeston...

Building an Ark as I type this...but I can't find any two rednecks I'd care to have aboard, Arrgghh!

streetsoldier wrote:VERY nice displays, DJ!

I just checked the 600-mile Doppler based in Cape Girardeau, and found no less than three heavyweight systems coming our way, back-to-back from Ft. Smith AK on up through the Ohio-Mississippi River confluence, and to points east. :o We are directly in their path, so it looks like "another $#|++Y day in Paradise" in Sikeston...

Building an Ark as I type this...but I can't find any two rednecks I'd care to have aboard, Arrgghh!

TY SS,
We spoke earlier on the phone,and I mentioned the obvious 'Vector' that I believed would propogate.This unfortuantely has come to fruition,as a Tornado was reported within the past hour )@ 04:20PDT 08MAY03 crossing the Okla/Ark Border heading for Ft Smith.Vector is right on the money..From the WSW.Draw an imaginary line toward Sikeston,MO and factor in a Grnd speed of 30-40mph,do the Math and be alert.This is just the beginning of a VERY long day in 'Paradise'.Heads up for Firehead @school as well.
The HP Supercell has had a history is producing more than one Tornado over the past 2 hours..and today's beasts have a signature of being long trackers.
Pulsers and Rogue or MCS/MCC with BowEcho 'ComaHead Point' Twisters that will spawn along this line early today,and Migrate North and North East.Some may be Embedded Rear'Flankers' or some 'Rain Wrapped',in which case,they may be difficult to verify by original sighting.
BE AWARE!Conditions are EXTREME and VERY favorable for Multiple Vortex Supercells.Shear is already setting up to your NW by 125km as Inflow is now apparent...
Conditons @06:14 CDT 08MAY03/Sikeston,MO(via Cape Girardeau,MO)
Temp:61F
Rh:94% ******!
Dp:59F
Wind:NNE @6km
Baro:29.95in(S) /hPa:1015mb
Obs:Mist/Partial Clr/Brkn Clds
Vis:to <6km/IFR

Poplar Bluff @06:17CDT 08MAY03
Temp:62F
Rh:90%
Dp:59F
Wind:E @12.9 Km/h
Baro:29.98 in /1013mb(S)
Vis:<16Km IFR/VFR
Obs:Clds/Overcast Deck to 2700Ft asl/824meters

However,a Trstrm is in Progress at Whiteman AFB
Temp 62F @06:57CDT 08MAY03

OMG!!

Please take care Bill et al. :o

At least there are alot of people on this board that has the knowledge and ability to read and interpret the various conditions and how they will affect our weather. These people like DJ, Stormsfury, KOW, Allexpert, WXBuffJim, etc. are providing us with a very valuable service and source of information. Thanks gang!

Two rednecks on an ark SS? I'm a redneck LOL.

LOL.......

You take care of yourself Bill! Keep Firehead and Annebelle she be a Ho. Safe too!

NAILED IT! 09:30:21 PDT 08MAY03
******Tornado Watch Box Per SPC dead on NW Ark /SW MO.******
#1>)

******Tornado WARNING 09:47(11:47CDT) PDT 08 MAY O3******
""SCOTT COUNTY""<MO...INCLUDING SIKESTON,MO***********
TORNADO SIGHTED..CONFIRMED PER MODOT 1 MILE SSW of SIKESTON
Heading NNE @25/TAKE COVER IMMEDIATELY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!IMMEDIATE EMS ACTIVATION.**********************************

#2>)
********Extreme SW TENN./DYER COUNTY**********
Tornado indicated by MEM DOPPLER heading SSW @20!!!
Converving Cells have a RARE Right Moving Retrograding Tornado,that MAY cross BACK into SE MO @SCOTT CO...Including SIKESTON,MO*****

Great call Arizwx. Don't know if Bill would agree though!

Bill keep you head down!

Stay safe Bill! :o

mf_dolphin wrote:Great call Arizwx. Don't know if Bill would agree though!

Bill keep you head down!

I would'nt categorize it as a Great Call,Marshall...just experience and hours of pouring over data.
I called Bill,last evening and warned him of the possibility.I RARELY do this,if ever.However,given the irrefutable Computer runs that had his CWA under the 'gun' as it were,I felt it was warranted.
It appears the Twister was very close to Sikeston,crossed the River and merged with the Dyersburg,TN twister which is now headed ESE by MEM 88-D.
The 'right mover' sig has waned,so the imminent danger to Bill has past,for now.
However,SPC still has his CWA under a Tornado Watch Box,with a supposed indefinite time frame,as refiring with sfc heating may indeed fire off more Supercells.This has just begun.
I tried to call Bill some 30min ago @10:25PDT(12:25CDT)..no answer.
I contacted vbHouTex in Houston,who is also awaiting word from Bill,Firehead and all Shipmates aboard the Good Ship 'Boothheel',including Anna'She Be a Scared Ho'Belle.

For those that haven't noticed Streetsoldier posting elsewhere, I just got off the phone with him and all is well. Anabelle(she be a ho)was at her very best while we were talking!!! The tornado this morning passed about 12 miles N of him. One was S of them also but further away. More storms developing WSW of them too.

Thank you for the information, DJ and David. I am glad you were safe Bill... I assume you still got hit pretty hard this afternoon.

That is good to hear.