Convective Outlook: Florida (Day 2, Sunday, April 27)
Posted: Sat Apr 26, 2003 4:29 pm
...FLORIDA PENINSULA...
SUBSTANTIAL WEAKENING OF MID/UPPER FLOW AND RISING MID-LEVEL
HEIGHTS ARE PROGGED ACROSS MUCH OF THE MID/SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST
STATES SUNDAY...AS VIGOROUS MID-LEVEL TROUGH FINALLY PROGRESSES
OFFSHORE INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. HOWEVER...UPPER TROUGHING WILL
LINGER OFF THE SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO...AS SUBTROPICAL SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA.
POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST HEATING OF MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER
ACROSS THE PENINSULA...AND WEAK MID-LEVEL CONVECTIVE INHIBITION
...WILL CONTRIBUTE TO POTENTIALLY MODERATE/STRONG INSTABILITY BY
MID DAY...WHEN SURFACE-BASED CAPE IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG IS LIKELY.
THIS SUPPORTS AT LEAST SOME SEVERE THREAT AS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE TO FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH SEA BREEZES. A
LIMITING FACTOR MAY BE STRENGTH OF WEST SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL
FLOW. MODELS SUGGEST THIS FLOW WILL BE WEAKENING...BUT MAY REMAIN
STRONG ENOUGH...THAT WITH MIXING TO THE SURFACE...WILL FOCUS LOW-
LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE EAST COAST RATHER EARLY IN THE PERIOD.
WHILE ISOLATED LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH
STRONGEST STORMS INITIATING NEAR EAST COAST SEA BREEZE...MAIN
ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP OFFSHORE EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
SUBSTANTIAL WEAKENING OF MID/UPPER FLOW AND RISING MID-LEVEL
HEIGHTS ARE PROGGED ACROSS MUCH OF THE MID/SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST
STATES SUNDAY...AS VIGOROUS MID-LEVEL TROUGH FINALLY PROGRESSES
OFFSHORE INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. HOWEVER...UPPER TROUGHING WILL
LINGER OFF THE SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO...AS SUBTROPICAL SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA.
POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST HEATING OF MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER
ACROSS THE PENINSULA...AND WEAK MID-LEVEL CONVECTIVE INHIBITION
...WILL CONTRIBUTE TO POTENTIALLY MODERATE/STRONG INSTABILITY BY
MID DAY...WHEN SURFACE-BASED CAPE IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG IS LIKELY.
THIS SUPPORTS AT LEAST SOME SEVERE THREAT AS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE TO FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH SEA BREEZES. A
LIMITING FACTOR MAY BE STRENGTH OF WEST SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL
FLOW. MODELS SUGGEST THIS FLOW WILL BE WEAKENING...BUT MAY REMAIN
STRONG ENOUGH...THAT WITH MIXING TO THE SURFACE...WILL FOCUS LOW-
LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE EAST COAST RATHER EARLY IN THE PERIOD.
WHILE ISOLATED LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH
STRONGEST STORMS INITIATING NEAR EAST COAST SEA BREEZE...MAIN
ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP OFFSHORE EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
