STORM2K

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 156
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
100 PM CDT THU APR 24 2003

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ARKANSAS
NORTHWEST LOUISIANA

EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 100 PM UNTIL
800 PM CDT.

...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...

DESTRUCTIVE TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER...
THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE
POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS ALONG AND 80 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND
SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 60 MILES EAST OF LITTLE ROCK ARKANSAS TO 20
MILES SOUTH OF TEXARKANA ARKANSAS.

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.
PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS.




DISCUSSION...THE LOW LEVELS HAVE DESTABILIZED RAPIDLY SINCE MID
MORNING ACROSS SRN AND CENTRAL AR...WHERE MLCAPE HAS INCREASED TO
2000-3000 J/KG. VERTICAL SHEAR REMAINS SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS
OVER THE AR/NW LA AREA...WHERE CONVECTIVE INITIATION IS EXPECTED IN
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THOUGH LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS NOT
PARTICULARLY STRONG...THE LARGE CAPE/HIGH DEW POINTS AND LIKELIHOOD
OF DISCRETE STORMS WILL SUPPORT THE THREAT OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND A
COUPLE OF STRONG TORNADOES DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS AR.

AVIATION...TORDADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 3 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND
GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550.
MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25030.

Looks very juicy and unstable in this area. A disturbance plowing in from the west will combine with strong southwest winds aloft and south to southeast winds at the surface. That combined with very strong surface heating and instability will result in very dangerous supercell thunderstorms capable of producing hail softball to grapefruit size, winds 80 mph, and strong to violent tornadoes. This is something not to take lightly for Little Rock points south to Arkadelphia for instance where a tornado struck several years back. A very dangerous and life threatening situation for northwest LA and into south central Arkansas later today into tonight.

This could definitely be one of the most violent severe wx days of 2003. Keep an eye out.

Jim

Thanks for the update Jim!

This doesn't sound too good. As you can see above, The National Severe Storms Forecast Center in Norman, Oklahoma has a PDS (Potentially Dangerous Situation) Tornado Watch for southern Arkansas and extreme northwestern Louisiana.