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Potential for significant rainfalls in the Southeast
Posted: Sun Apr 06, 2003 9:51 pm
by Stormsfury
For this upcoming week ... no less than 3 separate storm systems for the entire week will have the potential to produce widespread 2" - 6" rainfalls in North Carolina and 2"-4" rainfalls in South Carolina this upcoming week from 3 rounds of thunderstorms ....
Furthermore, the first wave begins tonight - already occurring in Western South Carolina, and North Carolina as isentropic lift is increasing over a CAD insitu wedge scenario already in place ...
Severe weather is possible in South Carolina and elevated thunderstorms are possible in North Carolina tomorrow ...
For more details in the late week, see this thread ...
http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=3995
Posted: Mon Apr 07, 2003 7:09 am
by Stormsfury
First wave continues with some very heavy rainfall potentials for this upcoming week ...
MY area under the gun with two strong cells bearing down and making a beeline for the area. Already one cell with very heavy rainfalls, but it was a small sized cell and didn't last long ... (Still dumped .25" in 5 minutes)
The continued potential of ½" to 1½" rainfalls in the Carolinas today as warm front lifts northward ... and plenty of subtropical moisture runs over with good isentropic lift will wring out the available moisture.
Virginia could get anywhere from ½" to 2" rainfalls today as well.
Hmmm....I didn't even use any model but the RUC for QPF forecast but the GFS QPF map seems to outline my numbers almost perfectly.
Posted: Mon Apr 07, 2003 7:17 am
by Stormsfury
Tuesday's QPF map - Georgia, and the Western Carolinas potential for flooding rainfalls ...
From Monday (Today) thru Wednesday (60 hr time frame)
Posted: Mon Apr 07, 2003 10:02 am
by JQ Public
scary looking!@ Looks like the southeast got stabbed or smthg!
Posted: Mon Apr 07, 2003 11:20 am
by GAStorm
That map is really looking ominous! Hopefully we will not see too much flooding here. I am in the heaviest predicted total! :bo
winterstorm '03 - Now GAStorm
Posted: Mon Apr 07, 2003 11:45 am
by wrkh99
Posted: Mon Apr 07, 2003 4:04 pm
by Stormsfury
Well, due to an extremely torrential downpour and some small hail (on Ladson Rd), the GFS actually UNDERPREDICTED my area's QPF ... 1" of rain fell in just 15 minutes, and more thunderstorms are back-building behind the first line and ahead of the second line ... with convective outflow boundaries all over the place. Conditions are becoming favorable for training of the cells in Lower South Carolina.
Furthermore, spots in the Midlands have picked up based on doppler radar estimates anywhere between 2"-5" of rainfall...
Posted: Mon Apr 07, 2003 4:36 pm
by Stormsfury
Convective outflow boundaries as well as a demarcation line (front) combining to continue the convection over Lower SC and E/SE Georgia.
Already in excess of 2" of rain have fallen at my location.
http://weather.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p ... kclx.shtml
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Posted: Mon Apr 07, 2003 5:02 pm
by Stormsfury
Here we go again ... last round for a while ...
Torrential Thunderstorm Rains with heavy thunderstorms.
Updated forecast for tonight and Tuesday.
Posted: Mon Apr 07, 2003 5:24 pm
by Stormsfury
After heavy rains and thunderstorms focused themselves over lower South Carolina with my so far picking up 3" of rainfall today (as of 6:20 pm) - another round is on the way for Georgia and The Carolinas once again, and this is only round 2...
Today rainfalls in South Carolina - particularly in lower Coastal South Carolina, and the Midlands have ranged from 2" to as much as 5" of rainfall.
Tomorrow look for additional heavy rainfalls...and yes the GFS actually UNDERPREDICTED today's rainfall in Eastern SC...
Projected 36hr QPF from the GFS and ETA
Either way, you slice it ... the potential for the Southeast to continue to pick up very heavy rainfall continues...in what is normally the driest spring month...
Posted: Mon Apr 07, 2003 6:02 pm
by Stormsfury
Rainfall report - my area - 2.55" of rain.
