STORM2K

Very interesting scenario setting up later this week ... with the ECMWF, and GFS both developing a strong low in the Southeast for this time of year. Also accompanying this is a lot of unseasonably cold air with plenty of moisture (High QPF's) ... Temperatures will be marginal in these areas, but with the 500mb closed low - enough cold air should be manufactured by the low itself to produce a heavy, wet snow in the higher elevations - which some of this could be accompanied by thundersnow ...

Day 4 Temperatures at 850mb -
http://cyclone.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen ... &cu=latest
Day 4 RH's Values at 850mb - BTW, possibly snowfalls in Northern and Central Alabama and Northern Georgia on Thursday ... very interesting, eh?
http://cyclone.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen ... &cu=latest
Day 4 MSLP -
http://cyclone.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen ... &cu=latest
Day 4 500mb Geopotential Heights - Cuts off a 500mb low in the Southeast - (well, if this coulda happened in January with all the cold air in place then, WOW)
http://cyclone.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen ... &cu=latest

Day 5-(In order of the links) 500mbGeopotential Heights, MSLP, 850mb RH, and 850mb TEMPS
http://cyclone.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen ... &cu=latest
http://cyclone.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen ... &cu=latest
http://cyclone.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen ... &cu=latest
http://cyclone.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen ... &cu=latest

18z GFS - 102hr, 108hr, 114hr, 120hr, and 126hr -
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 6_102m.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 6_108m.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 6_114m.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 6_120m.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 6_126m.gif

18z GFS - QPF potential - Very heavy (and COLD) rainfalls are possible with this potentially slow-moving cutoff system in the Southeast (Carolinas) - with potential for heavy wet snow in the higher elevations of NC ...
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_132m.gif

This cool air will not back off huh!?!? how low may temps fall in the mountains as well as here inraleigh?

JQ, temperatures should run in the 40's during this period, with maybe some isolated upper 30's.

Even worse - the potential for flooding rains....

youch! I dunno what is wrong with me but i would take flooding rains over no rain any time. That drought really scared us down here. The cold temps...even I(a winter weather fan) am sick of the cold. I can't believe it will get that cold! Any record breaking lows along with the rain?

I don't think there will be any record breaking lows, but if rain sustains all day and doesn't allow for temperatures to rise much, there is a slim possibility of maybe a record low high temperature being broken.

Still looking like the NC Mountains have a good shot at unseasonable heavy snows and the potential for talking about feet of snow for Beech Mountain, Mt. Pisgah, and Mt. Mitchell...

sad and ski season ended a couple weeks ago hehe.

Concerns about moisture return after the inundation that SE GA and the Carolinas received Monday and Tuesday are no longer a concern ... I originally thought it would only be a modest moisture return, however, the ULL is digging stronger and may actually move a little slower than progged. Moisture returns are going to be robust as already flood watches have been re-established across the Carolinas ... furthermore, the moisture return tonight will begin to go neg tilt as the moisture is drawn northward and eventually back to the NW...

And furthermore, historical snows for the NC Mountains above 4,000 ft are ON

GFS 60hr PRECIP and ETA 60hr PRECIP