Analysis on next system

[Allexpert Mike]

Our system out West will be responcible for the rain in the Middle Atlantic and northeast tomorrow. As were still in a split flow pattern thePAC energy crasing into the Northwest will ride the northern stream and will extend a warm front all the way over to the Eastern US in the MA and NE kicking off light to moderate showers. Looking at GFS guidance I think its taking this system a tad to far north given the -pna and the Western trough digging with strong jet streak on the west side of the trough. As the system slides eastward it will continue to spread some nice rain to the north of the lp then it will spread a line of showers and storms along a cold front as it heads towards the Eastern US. The UVV's will not be impressive,,,genrally weak UVV's for most of the area with a few sstrong areas. Thunderstorms will be a slght threat in the upper Midwest around MN and Wisconsion area particularly on Thursday were the best dynamics will come together. Any thunderstorm development should NOT reach severe limits. RH fields show mostly cloudy or solid cloud cover from Tues PM through Thursday and that will limit instibality, however as the vort lobe moves east there will be nice PVA and low level convergence associated with the warm front and that will lead to moderate to strong UVV's. So basically i'm going against guidance for the UVV's. Dew points look to be too low,,,generally I'd like to see dew points over the 55* mark to kick off some nice thunderstorms but over the areas looks like they'll struggle to hit the 50* mark. Other than that we will have a nice flow aloft,,,not that strong but there will be nice jet diffluence. But now to the point of my post...........

As the lp continues to move oto the north it will extend a cold front down and it will pull through most of the MA and NE ,,,,,,,,,but not the S. MA and SE! The GFS in my mind actually does a good job at spotting this,,,,its almost like a typical summer front with the jet stream to far to the north to push the front out. Well it looks like the same story there is going to be nothing to push out the front so it will stall through the SE and it looks like a strong LP will hook up with the front and ride along it...gfs wanted to take this an inland runner,,,but thats were I disagree right now I can't write off that idea but I'm thinking more of a +NAO sig with a w-e orientation therefore a track along the stalled frontal boundary might come close to the major cities but I think a nice rain producer fro C. VA down to N.FL back to OK. I'll get into more detail later.