STORM2K

Take into account, the ECMWF usually has a subtle warm bias.

Day 7 850mb Temperatures
http://cyclone.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen ... &cu=latest

Day 7 850mb Temperatures/Winds
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_156m.gif

This indicates the potential for maybe record cold in portions of the Southland and Southeast next weekend.

This cold snap is left in the wake of what looks to be a major storm system developing in the Central U.S. on Thursday (a lot of phasing and the 500mb low takes on a negative tilt at the 500mb level)

Looking like the potential for a lot of severe weather in the Plain States/Midwest States, and the Southland coming up this week.

SF

Yep i have been mentioning this for about a week now. Looks like for a change the models are hitting the long range. And of all the odd things it was the AVN that first picked up on this. Looks like you guys as well may see some severe weather ahead of the front. That im sure you are on top of.

king of weather wrote:Yep i have been mentioning this for about a week now. Looks like for a change the models are hitting the long range. And of all the odd things it was the AVN that first picked up on this. Looks like you guys as well may see some severe weather ahead of the front. That im sure you are on top of.

Hi, K.O.W. and welcome to S2k.

I noticed this last week (from your thread on another board) and saw the possibility, but I don't do much long range forecasting, but seems to be coming together quite nicely.

Definitely a topsy turvy situation. Based on the 500mb level fields, I actually think that the low will have to be deeper than 1000mb depicted by the GFS. The EC in regards to SLP, IMO has a better handle with 997mb and that may not be deep enough.

Severe weather is a possibility in the Southeast, but SC/NC will have to break out of a wedge that sets up after the passage of another low offshore which sets up a weak wedge. Once that gets scoured out and deeper moisture will be allowed to return, but just how much remains to be seen.

gah this is looking sad...everything is blooming around here...hopefully they can be salvaged after this monster

Glad I live in Florida!!!!



Johnathan

Stormfury wrote:Looking like the potential for a lot of severe weather in the Plain States/Midwest States, and the Southland coming up this week.

As usual, Seems you may be correct! Models similar with vigorous upper trough sweeping east across the
deep south and northern Gulf during the first part of the upcoming
weekend. Latest AVN solution similar to 00z MRF run in depicting a
possible squall line preceding the attendant cold front late Saturday
and Saturday night. Seeing that this is still several days away will
hang on to scattered pop mention all zones Sat/Sat evening...with
some strong to severe storms possible. On Sunday latest models depict
a breezy day under mostly sunny skies as cooler drier air moves
into the region...which will carry over into the beginning of next
week. As usual AVN/MRF are very aggressive with winds in the wake of
the front...which is a model bias...so will undercut. In addition
slightly cooler temperatures are advertised...but again seeing this
is still several days away...prefer to leave ongoing temperatures as is for
now until additional model runs can be evaluated. This is from our local weather discussion...


Johnathan

Yea stormsfury that low does have to be deeper i think the models have underdeveloped it myself. And that cad will play a big role on the severe aspect of it.
But with that beeing said unfortunatly alot of rain has falling in Ga and the Carolinas lately and may get another dumping with this and could cause some big flooding concerns down that way as well. This you would know more about.
The thing thats got me is the amount of cold air this system will pull in behind it as the models have it.
And today the ggm is showing a noreaster going up the coast from the gulf in the 72 to 120hr time frame and whats funny about that is the avn picked this up a couple of days ago but is not saying anything about it as of late. And the avn is now honking a possible big snowstorm in the Ohio Valley and the Ne on day 13 too the 15.

Either way you cut it looks to be a very intresting couple of weeks ahead for alot of us.

Keep us updated Stormsfury. I will do a update later tonight.

Cold weather !!! Yes maybey it will kill some bugs

Regarding the Cold Snap .... Severe Weather Potential on another thread ...

The 18z GFS run at 162hr mark - Look at the 0ºC Isotherm down into Central Florida, and also notice what? ... Snow in Eastern NC on 3/31/03? Not sure if the cold bias is working here, but the ECMWF with a bit of a warm bias showing nearly identical isotherms (taking regards of their respective biases)
18z GFS 162hr forecast plot
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 6_162m.gif

Day 6 850mb Temperatures - The Heartland and the Deep South in a shiver zone.
http://cyclone.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen ... &cu=latest

Day 7 850mb Temperatures - Southeast in a Deep Freeze? Maybe. Has the -5ºC isotherm nearing ATL and all of SC below 0ºC. This would equate to temperatures running about 20º below normal for this time of year.
http://cyclone.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen ... &cu=latest

Looks like we could have a frost in south Louisiana on Sunday if that verifies. Current forecasts only show lows in the low 40's. Let's see how it pans out.

Last nites (3/24) ECMWF was just as agressive with the CF AND further east with the SLP( in conjunction with a stronger east 500MB low.

Slide that everything back a couple hundred miles and a snowstorm could happen from along the east coast..


Huff

that's interesting Sturmsfurry ! Like I said back in early February, the lowest temperature so far since Feb.1 for the Lowcountry was only 31 degrees - a bit lame. March didn't see any cold air outbreaks so far, so I guess we could really use another freeze to keep the bug count down this April ! Boy would that help ! The north had an incredibly cold first 10 days of March - in some cases the coldest in 50 years. Areas like Devils Lake,ND were 27 degrees below average through March 10th, so this will be hard to overcome even though it's returned to above normal levels since March 13th. It was similar for other northern locations - many of them still 6 to 10 below average despite a return to spring like values since mid March.

So Yes, bring down some frost here one more time !!!!!!!!!!

Ken