STORM2K

91 tornadoes reported preliminarily. Future surveys will determine the actual number and intensities. A tornado watch is in effect now for most of Missouri until 7 PM CDT/8 PM EDT. This is a PDS WATCH!!!



URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 330
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1050 AM CDT SUN MAY 30 2004

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

NORTHERN AND WESTERN ARKANSAS
EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS
A LARGE PART OF MISSOURI
EASTERN OKLAHOMA

EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 1050 AM UNTIL 700
PM CDT.

...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...

DESTRUCTIVE TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER...
THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE
POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS ALONG AND 95 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST
OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF KIRKSVILLE MISSOURI TO
40 MILES SOUTH OF FORT SMITH ARKANSAS.

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.
PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 329...

DISCUSSION...SUPERCELLS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS
ALONG COLD FRONT/DRY LINE BOUNDARY IN EXTREME ERN KS/WRN MO...WITH
SWD DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE BOUNDARIES INTO ERN OK. OTHER STORMS MAY
FORM INVOF RETREATING W/E OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IN NRN MO. COMBINATION
OF SURFACE HEATING...WEAK MID LEVEL COLD ADVECTION AND LARGE SCALE
ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH LEADING EDGE OF WRN KS UPPER IMPULSE LIKELY
TO ALLOW CAP TO BE BROKEN WHERE LOW LEVEL UPLIFT IS STRONGEST.
WHILE STORMS MAY TEND TO EVOLVE INTO NNE/SSW ORIENTED BANDS...
STRENGTH OF SHEAR AND INSTABILITY SUGGEST GOOD CHANCE FOR LONG-LIVED
SUPERCELLS WITH TORNADOES/LARGE HAIL AND HIGH WIND.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 3 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND
GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 600.
MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25040.

That watch is just to the south and east of me. Stay safe, everyone!!!!

Kristi

Surface based instabilty and low level shear are leading to lowest 3KM EHI values of 7.0 across portions of MO which is very favorable for supercells capible of producing long-track tornadoes --- aided by low LCL heights over much of MO.

Man, I was out chasing last night around platte and dekalb counties. It was crazy, and that wasn't even labeled a PDS. Well, I'm back home in Macon, and now we're under a PDS watch until 7PM, and the HWO outlines the best chance of violent tornadoes to be notrth of a carrolton to moberly line. That includes me. I might not have to travel to be in the action today.

Man, was my discussion ever thrown in the garbage. This is one unpredictable, slow-moving monstrosity. I though it'd be out of here by now.

Beam182 wrote:Man, I was out chasing last night around platte and dekalb counties. It was crazy, and that wasn't even labeled a PDS. Well, I'm back home in Macon, and now we're under a PDS watch until 7PM, and the HWO outlines the best chance of violent tornadoes to be notrth of a carrolton to moberly line. That includes me. I might not have to travel to be in the action today.

Man, was my discussion ever thrown in the garbage. This is one unpredictable, slow-moving monstrosity. I though it'd be out of here by now.

Actually, that was wave 1 as that upper system moved northward into the Dakotas/Minnesota, however, the second upper system currently ejecting out of Colorado is what will lower heights across the region and with a very evident transition line on WV imagery, that's where convection will initiate today with convective inhibitation about to become almost non-existent and with CAPE already exceeding 2000 j/kg and still climbing with very strong insolation in the area, and the cold front (also an outflow boundary evident near the CF).

Also linear forcing may cause quite a rapid transition to a severe squall line, embedded supercells within the squall line can't be ruled out as well as supercells developing out ahead of the line ...

This will update every 15 to 30 minutes ...

I think that today will be worse than what we saw yesterday. Stay safe, everyone!

Kristi

And speak of the devil, watch that outflow boundary for additional convection is currently firing (the cell where the tornado warning is up in Northern MO)... CLICK HERE to LOOP ME

Here we go again...

Stay safe!! Looks very rough across MO today!

Kristi

wx247 wrote:Here we go again...

Garrett, pay attention to those two cells, radial velocities already showing decent rotation in the mid-levels as those cells head E to ENE ...

Yep, I saw that. Those cells look to track north of me, but I am watching NE OK for others.

Outflow boundary exploding ... see above posts for WV and radar imagery ...