Severe Thunderstorm Watch for NE NC/C & S VA Until 8 pm

[Skywatch_NC]

Special Weather Statement
Statement as of 11:57 am EDT on May 21, 2004


... There is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms mainly in
northeast portions of central North Carolina late today...

.Skywarn spotters...
Skywarn spotter activation may be needed in the Triangle area North
and east between 2 PM and 8 PM this evening. Spotters are
encouraged to report threatening weather to the National Weather
Service.

.Synoptic pattern...
Very warm and humid conditions in the lower atmosphere and upper
level perturbations from North are apt to trigger rapidly developing
thunderstorms later this afternoon and into the evening hours.
Although conditions are ripe for thunderstorm formation in almost
any part of central North Carolina... the greatest concentration and
potential for severe weather will be North and northeast of the
Raleigh Durham area.

.Hazardous weather details...
Besides intense lightning strikes... the primary threat from rapidly
developing thunderstorms this afternoon will be isolated damaging
downburst winds and hail of penny size or greater.

Stay tuned to NOAA all hazards weather radio for additional
statements or possible watches or warnings.

Severe Thunderstorm Watch
urgent - immediate broadcast requested
Severe Thunderstorm Watch number 233
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
100 PM EDT Fri may 21 2004

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of

Northeastern North Carolina
central and southern Virginia
coastal waters

Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 100 PM until 800
PM EDT.

Hail to 2 inches in diameter... thunderstorm wind gusts to 70
mph... and dangerous lightning are possible in these areas.

The Severe Thunderstorm Watch area is along and 60 statute miles
North and South of a line from 45 miles west northwest of
Lynchburg Virginia to 35 miles east northeast of Norfolk Virginia.

Remember... a Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.

Other watch information... continue... ww 231... ww 232...

Discussion... forcing associated with weak short wave trough
migrating southeastward across the mid Atlantic coast states will
support rapid increase in thunderstorm activity near lee trough
across South central Virginia this afternoon. Environment is
becoming very unstable with mean mixed layer cape approaching 3000
j/kg. Large convective cluster is expected by late
afternoon... continuing southeastward across the southeast
Virginia/northeast North Carolina coast. Further development may
continue upstream... into the Blacksburg/Roanoke areas through early
evening. Damaging wind gusts likely will accompany developing cold
pool... with isolated large hail also possible.

Aviation... a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft
to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60
knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm
motion vector 30035.


... Kerr/Hart