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Potentially Stormy Time Period Begins Today for Me
Posted: Sun May 16, 2004 9:28 am
by Guest
Sunday-Sunday Night: A slight risk encompasses much of the northern plains, states included are Minnesota, South Dakota, northwest Iowa and northern into central and southwest Nebraska. With a warm front pressing northward into northern Nebraska/southern South Dakota, a good chance of rotating supercells, due to large amounts of wind shear, exists in the vicinity of the frontal boundary. Also, a dryline may produce additional storms over the western portions of the plains this afternoon, with some severe weather possible. The storms should congeal into a MCS late tonight and affect the upper Mississippi valley and western Great Lakes.
A Moderate risk upgrade is possible once the situation becomes clearer.
Monday: Another potential Moderate risk exists for Monday, a little further south, from teh western Great Lakes, across Iowa, and into Nebraska. Parts of Kansas and Missouri may also get into the action. Isolated tornadoes are again possible.
Tuesday-Friday: Chances of storms exist, with several bouts of severe weather possible in the time period.
Posted: Sun May 16, 2004 12:01 pm
by Brett Adair
It does look like several upper air shortwaves will push through your region. If a triple point sets up somewhere in the region, you could seriously have a problem just as the folks in Srn KS did. I expected it to occur throughout the day, but I thought Oklahoma was going to get the major action.....instead had to travel a few miles futher northward. Instability and 0-6 KM shear suggests you guys will see a descent amount of action. Watch for an 700mb dry slot to "punch" in....if that occurs you could see a day full of supercells. Happy chasing later this eve...
Posted: Sun May 16, 2004 12:05 pm
by Guest
The thing that is a little concerning is that the storms are already firing in an area of showers across central Nebraska. This could hamper the instability, but right now, it is sunny here in eastern Nebraska.
Posted: Sun May 16, 2004 12:20 pm
by Colin
Well, if you don't get 1 today, you only have the REST OF THE WEEK!
Posted: Sun May 16, 2004 2:22 pm
by Guest
Got a MD out. Possible some surface based supercells later this afternoon and evening, with a watch possible by late afternoon.
Posted: Sun May 16, 2004 2:27 pm
by wx247
Hey Brian... the J Squared Storm Chasing team is out... heading toward O'Neill right now. I'll keep you posted.
Posted: Sun May 16, 2004 5:30 pm
by AirmaN
Omaha in the clear as of now...
Posted: Sun May 16, 2004 5:34 pm
by AirmaN
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 208
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
445 PM CDT SUN MAY 16 2004
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST NEBRASKA
SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA
EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 445 PM UNTIL 1000PM CDT.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS
TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS ALONG AND 90 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 10 MILES SOUTHWEST OF BURWELL NEBRASKA TO 15 MILES SOUTH OF SIOUX CITY IOWA.
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.
PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 207...
DISCUSSION...SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL NEB IN THE VICINITY OF A WSW-ENE ORIENTED SURFACE FRONT AND RAIN-COOLED BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER PRECIPITATION. THE LOW LEVELS ARE DESTABILIZING NWD ACROSS ERN NEB IN ADVANCE OF THIS CONVECTION...AND VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES APPEAR TO BE QUITE FAVORABLE FOR RIGHT MOVING SUPERCELLS. THE DEGREE OF LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND AN INCREASE IN SURFACE DEWPOINTS INTO THE UPPER 50S SHOULD SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE OF TORNADOES. OTHERWISE...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS THROUGH THE LATE EVENING.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL. SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500.
MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24035.
Posted: Sun May 16, 2004 5:37 pm
by wx247
The J Squared chase team is positioned in Ewing, NE.
Posted: Sun May 16, 2004 5:59 pm
by Aquawind
Posted: Sun May 16, 2004 6:02 pm
by AirmaN
No doubt...just unfortunate they are heading North East... I was hoping to get my digital camera going tonight
Posted: Sun May 16, 2004 6:15 pm
by senorpepr
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
604 PM CDT SUN MAY 16 2004
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORTH PLATTE HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
HOLT COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
* UNTIL 645 PM CDT
* AT 558 PM CDT...CHAMBERS FIRE DEPARTEMENT WAS TRACKING A LARGE AND
EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO 3 MILES SOUTHWEST OF AMELIA...OR ABOUT
26 MILES NORTH OF BURWELL...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.
* THE TORNADO IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR...
AMELIA AROUND 610 PM CDT
CHAMBERS AROUND 630 PM CDT
THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A BASEMENT. GET UNDER A
WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. IF NO BASEMENT IS
AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN AN
INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO
COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.
IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE
NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.
A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT SUNDAY EVENING
FOR SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA. A TORNADO WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT
UNTIL 1000 PM CDT SUNDAY EVENING FOR NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
LAT...LON 4234 9916 4210 9916 4210 9833 4250 9837
$$
TLK
Posted: Sun May 16, 2004 8:17 pm
by AirmaN
Omaha may get something .. who knows