Severe Weather Summary 04/21/04

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Severe Weather Summary

An Active Severe Weather Pattern the Next 24 Hours

Relatively high dew points are in place, from Texas northward toward the Lower Lakes; dew points in the 60s have made it into Oklahoma and Arkansas; dew points in the 50s as far north as Milwaukee and Grand Rapids. We analyze a surface front from the Texas panhandle, through western Oklahoma, to northwestern Missouri, up to the Great Lakes. An upper level disturbance will track out the Texas panhandle today, to central Oklahoma this evening, and southern Missouri by tomorrow morning. So, we have moisture, surface convergence, and upper level dynamics. Add to that heating of the day, and we have another busy 24 hours of severe weather coming up. The highest risk of severe weather, from this afternoon on into tonight, will be in eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas, not only from damaging winds and hail, but there is the possibility of tornadoes. The air mass east to Tennessee, and north to Lower Michigan is unstable enough, that strong to severe thunderstorms will more than likely occur in the next 24 hours.