MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0391
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1247 PM CDT TUE APR 20 2004
AREAS AFFECTED...NERN OK...SERN KS
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
VALID 201747Z - 201915Z
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF SERN KS AND
NERN OK BY LATE AFTERNOON...
MULTIPLE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE KS/OK REGION WILL INFLUENCE
AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. INITIAL CONVECTIVE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORMS IS LOSING ITS IDENTITY
ACROSS NRN OK THIS AFTERNOON WHILE STRONG HEATING ACROSS WRN OK INTO
NCNTRL OK WILL ALLOW DRY LINE TO MIX EWD TO NEAR I-44 CORRIDOR BY
LATE AFTERNOON. IT APPEARS STRONGEST ZONE OF DEEP CONVERGENCE WILL
PERSIST ACROSS NERN OK INTO SERN KS WHERE CONSIDERABLE LOW LEVEL
CLOUDINESS AND MORE SLY LOW LEVEL COMPONENT WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH. SUSTAINED ASCENT OVER THIS REGION WILL PROVE
ADEQUATE FOR THUNDERSTORM INITIATION BY 21Z NEAR OLD OUTFLOW/DRY
LINE INTERSECTION...OR ALONG SEWD-MOVING SFC BOUNDARY ACROSS KS.
VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ARE MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR STORM ROTATION
WITH ISOLATED SUPERCELLS EXPECTED TO BE THE EARLY STORM MODE.
..DARROW.. 04/20/2004
ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...ICT...OUN...
37409747 37959575 37259451 36169470 35779599 36289790
