STORM2K

I hope everybody stays safe up there in Minnesota and Wisconsin.


URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 82
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
140 PM CDT SUN APR 18 2004

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

CENTRAL AND EASTERN MINNESOTA
NORTHERN WISCONSIN
LAKE SUPERIOR

EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 140 PM UNTIL 800
PM CDT.

...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...

DESTRUCTIVE TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER...
THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE
POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

Storms are now beginning to fire NW, W Of Minneapolis. It's going to happen quickly folks.

Be safe out there

Things are turning nasty pretty quickly out there! :o Hope everyone stays safe!

Those Non-Severe Storms NW Of Minneapolis are getting BLASTED. You can tell how strong the jet streak is by how quickly the tops and rains are blown NEward. Get one of those Supercell Updrafts in there and you are going to have a severe storm, very quickly.

Looks like one supercell might be firing on the SW Portion of that line. Sometimes the 1st supercell is the strongest. That is definately the one to watch right now.

Boy the storm prediction center seen that too. The storms are actually struggling to develop into the upper atmosphere because the shear is so high!!

504
ACUS11 KWNS 182033
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 182033
WIZ000-MNZ000-182230-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0370
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0333 PM CDT SUN APR 18 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL MN

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 83...

VALID 182033Z - 182230Z

...ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE TSTMS NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS
CNTRL MN...

LATEST RADAR FROM MINNEAPOLIS SHOWS STORMS RAPIDLY DEVELOPING ALONG
AND NORTH OF WARM FRONT WHICH EXTENDS FROM BBB/STC/RZN. VERY STRONG
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT NOTED...WITH UPPER 80S/90S ACROSS SWRN MN AND
UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S NORTH. COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE VERY
QUICKLY IN ATMOSPHERE CHARACTERIZED BY SBCAPE VALUES NEAR 2000 J/KG.

SUPERCELLS ARE LIKELY...GIVEN DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES AOA 50 KT.
TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SURFACE BASED STORM THAT HAS
MAXIMIZED SHEAR ALONG THE BOUNDARY. RECENT 0-1KM SRH HELICITY VALUES
ARE NEAR 150 M2/S2 AND ARE CONSIDERABLY LARGER FARTHER EAST. THREAT
INITIALLY MAY BE FROM LARGE HAIL AS STORMS STRUGGLE TO OVERCOME THE
TREMENDOUS SHEAR. HOWEVER...TORNADO THREAT WILL INCREASE AS SFC LOW
APPROACHES.

IN ADDITION TO THE THREAT OF TORNADOES...VERY LARGE HAIL IS LIKELY
WITH STORMS...ESPECIALLY IN ORGANIZED SUPERCELLS. LOCALLY RUN HAIL
MODEL SUGGESTS HAIL GREATER THAN 2" IS POSSIBLE.

..TAYLOR.. 04/18/2004

...PLEASE SEE http://WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...

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