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ACUS11 KWNS 181843
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 181842
SDZ000-NEZ000-182115-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0369
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0142 PM CDT SUN APR 18 2004
AREAS AFFECTED...NRN NEBRASKA INTO CNTRL SD
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
VALID 181842Z - 182115Z
TSTM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE WITHIN POST-FRONTAL REGIME
ACROSS NRN NEBRASKA AND CNTRL SD OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE AND SEVERE TSTM WATCHES MAY BE
NECESSARY.
STRONG COLD FRONT IS FCST TO CONTINUE TO SURGE SEWD FROM THE NRN
HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. PREFRONTAL AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY...FROM EXTREME SERN SD ACROSS ERN HALF OF NEBRASKA WAS VERY
WARM AND DRY WITH DEEP SWLY FLOW AND STRONG HEATING AIDING DEEP
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING. HOWEVER...MOISTENING POST FRONTAL AIRMASS AND
INTENSE DEEP LAYER FRONTOGENETIC FORCING WITHIN LEFT EXIT REGION OF
90-100KT MID LEVEL WIND MAX...COUPLED WITH VERY LOW TROPOSPHERIC
STATIC STABILITY...WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF NUMEROUS STRONG
TO SEVERE TSTMS ACROSS THE AREA OVER NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. VERY
STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND HIGH-BASED CONVECTION SUGGESTS BOTH A
HAIL AND WIND THREAT FROM THIS ACTIVITY. DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL
SHOULD BE MAXIMIZED IF CONVECTION CAN DEVELOP ON OR JUST AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT WHERE DCAPE VALUES WILL BE HIGH. POST-FRONTAL STORMS
WILL MORE LIKELY PRODUCE HAIL AS WIND POTENTIAL WILL BE OFFSET BY
DEEPENING SURFACE-BASED STABLE LAYER.
..CARBIN.. 04/18/2004
PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...ABR...LBF...UNR...CYS...
43139810 42169881 41240054 41180173 42160285 43580248
44390198 45280071 45329918 45039809Right now have a nasty cell that developed like in 30 minutes just south of Valentine, Nebraska. We have several areas to watch today, the most serious being Minnesota/Wisconsin.