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So much for seeing an active severe wx season this year
Posted: Sat Apr 03, 2004 4:17 am
by Stormless2003
As a die-hard storm enthusiast, this is about the last thing I wanted to read:
(c/p from LC's long range outlook)
MEDIUM RANGE OUTLOOK
(weather trends through the next 6 to 10 days)
While I sincerely hope that the current/evolving 500MB longwave pattern is
not locking in for the duration of the Spring season, there is absolutely NO
indication of change through April 11. Essentially a moderate +PNA/-NAO
configuration, the prevailing wind and height contour fields favor warm, dry conditions
in the West and Dixie with mostly chilly and wet weather across the Midwest
and Northeast. In case you are wondering (for reasons I will expound on
tomorrow, an important anniversary in the annals of tornadic outbreaks), major severe
thunderstorm events will be extremely unlikely to occur IF the present trend
in upper atmospheric flow is maintained. It is still too early to make that
prediction, given the fact that the "season" for intense convection has about
105 days to go yet.
The sluggish eastward projection of the disturbance now dropping heavy rain
and thunder over the Desert Regions is expected to continue through Day 6.
Undercutting a block, then emerging into the lower Great Plains at a time when the
polar westerlies are in a brief northward replacement cycle, the impulse
looks to be more of a flood risk then a tornado threat (although some supercell
formation is a given at this point). KS....OK....TX may have repeated bursts of
convection between the 96 and 144 hour time frame, with ample moisture and
energy for high QPF totals. It appears that by next weekend, a northern branch
system will phase with the dewpoint and vorticity fields, dragging a reduced
potential for rough conditions through parts of Dixie.
The deep storm that whips through New England this Sunday will drag another
realm of very cold air (for April) into the Great Lakes and Northeast on Monday
and Tuesday. This being spring, the chilly domain will recede into eastern
Canada, only to be dragged back into the northern states by a shortwave
progressing from SA into ME at midweek. Model scenarios point toward abnormally low
500Mb heights from Hudson Bay into Appalachia between April 9 and 11, implying
another rain event and bout with colder readings along the East Coast by 240
hours. "
Here we are, going into the prime time of year for storms, and we STILL can't get a favorable setup in the central US. Through this entire year, the upper-level pattern has been about as unconducive for storm outbreaks as you can possibly get, and there is absolutely NO glimmer of hope in the long-range outlooks either. With the constant RIDGE in the west and TROUGH in the east, nothing even makes it to the central US anymore. So much for being in "severe weather season". Heck we had more storms last NOVEMBER than we've had this entire spring!
And I thought 2002 was a slow year.
Posted: Sat Apr 03, 2004 7:57 am
by wx247
Ummm... spring is about 10 or 11 days old and you're saying that the season is dead. Read up on the tornado/ svr. facts... then get back with me.
Posted: Sat Apr 03, 2004 8:22 am
by Guest
I remember last year. It was pretty much dead through April, except for perhaps a few exceptions in the southern plains. Then, bam, May 4th comes and a major outbreak.
The plains will get their storms this year (if you want to call them "THEIR" storms. lol).
Posted: Sat Apr 03, 2004 8:28 am
by wx247
NEWeatherguy wrote:I remember last year. It was pretty much dead through April, except for perhaps a few exceptions in the southern plains. Then, bam, May 4th comes and a major outbreak.
The plains will get their storms this year (if you want to call them "THEIR" storms. lol).
I don't claim any ownership of any of the storms Brian.
Posted: Sat Apr 03, 2004 8:29 am
by Guest
Posted: Sat Apr 03, 2004 8:31 am
by wx247
You know why??? There was this one tornado that thought I owned him last May. He was 1/4 mile from the house before it sunk in and he moved on. I think it might have been a blonde tornado.
Posted: Sat Apr 03, 2004 8:35 am
by Guest
wx247 wrote:You know why??? There was this one tornado that thought I owned him last May. He was 1/4 mile from the house before it sunk in and he moved on. I think it might have been a blonde tornado.
Posted: Sat Apr 03, 2004 11:51 pm
by Stormless2003
wx247 wrote:Ummm... spring is about 10 or 11 days old and you're saying that the season is dead. Read up on the tornado/ svr. facts... then get back with me.
Lol. You're the one who obviously knows nothing about severe storm climatology. Let see, as of April 1st the SPC count for 2004 was at 42 tornadoes. According to the 10-year average, we should have had more than 120 by now, with about 70 of those occurring in March alone. In fact, there hasn't been a season in over
30 years with fewer than 47 tornado occurrences by the end of March, as seen in this table:
http://www.vvm.com/~curtis/TorTable.html
And with the unfavorable upper-level pattern that is expected to hang around, the deficit will only grow, as we are now entering what is
typically the third most active month for svr storms. If things don't change within the next few weeks, they probably never will.
I suggest you visit the following sites and learn a little about svr climo yourself:
http://www.nssl.noaa.gov/users/brooks/public_html/tornado/
http://spc.noaa.gov/archive/tornadoes/
Posted: Sun Apr 04, 2004 2:17 am
by Lindaloo
wx247 wrote:You know why??? There was this one tornado that thought I owned him last May. He was 1/4 mile from the house before it sunk in and he moved on. I think it might have been a blonde tornado.
I remember that Garrett! We were all worried about you. Hopefully that will not happen again this season.
As for Spring being over already is just laughable to me. The season just started. SHEESH!
Posted: Sun Apr 04, 2004 3:14 am
by ColdFront77
March sure is typically a very busy month for tornadic thunderstorms. Spring, meteorologically began 35 days old,
which is 57% longer than astronomical spring, beings that today is the 15th day of the season.
The chances of having thunderstorms that contain severe sized hail, wind gusts in excess of 50 kts (57.5 mph) and
tornadoes does generally increase into the summer months.
Posted: Sun Apr 04, 2004 8:43 am
by Guest
Another thing, I don't believe in the long-range models. Heck, sometimes I don't believe my 7-day forecast. The longer out the forecast, the more chances for it to flip-flop .
Posted: Sun Apr 04, 2004 9:39 am
by breeze
LOL, this is like one of those "Winter Is Dead" threads
in December!
Posted: Sun Apr 04, 2004 9:40 am
by Guest
breeze wrote:LOL, this is like on of those "Winter Is Dead" threads
in December!
Good one, Breeze!
People have to understand you are not going to have an outbreak of tornadoes from Minnesota to Oklahoma every single week.
Posted: Sun Apr 04, 2004 9:45 am
by breeze
That's very true, Brian - nature can change
at any given moment, and, that's what makes
weather-watching so exciting!
Posted: Sun Apr 04, 2004 10:07 am
by wx247
Stormless2003 wrote:wx247 wrote:Ummm... spring is about 10 or 11 days old and you're saying that the season is dead. Read up on the tornado/ svr. facts... then get back with me.
Lol. You're the one who obviously knows nothing about severe storm climatology. Let see, as of April 1st the SPC count for 2004 was at 42 tornadoes. According to the 10-year average, we should have had more than 120 by now, with about 70 of those occurring in March alone. In fact, there hasn't been a season in over
30 years with fewer than 47 tornado occurrences by the end of March, as seen in this table:
http://www.vvm.com/~curtis/TorTable.htmlAnd with the unfavorable upper-level pattern that is expected to hang around, the deficit will only grow, as we are now entering what is
typically the third most active month for svr storms. If things don't change within the next few weeks, they probably never will.
I suggest you visit the following sites and learn a little about svr climo yourself:
http://www.nssl.noaa.gov/users/brooks/public_html/tornado/http://spc.noaa.gov/archive/tornadoes/
I feel I need to respond to this, although I shouldn't.
I never said that the season was not below normal so far. However, I said that we are only two weeks or so into Spring and there is no need to call a season dead!! These kinds of threads were soooo frequent in the winter wx section. If you had wanted to comment on the lack of storms so far this year and talk about the prognosis for storms the rest of the season... then great!
But calling a season dead??? All it takes is one outbreak to bring the numbers right back into line.
Posted: Sun Apr 04, 2004 10:12 am
by wx247
Add the avg. totals of Jan,Feb,and Mar. They don't even total the avg. numbers for May or June. They may not even total the number in April alone. You can't look at what has happened so far and claim a season dead without making a huge leap of faith. The facts don't support your future prediction.
Posted: Sun Apr 04, 2004 10:18 am
by wx247
By the way... that chart from above came from your links... thanks for educatin' me!
Posted: Sun Apr 04, 2004 10:31 am
by Guest
Posted: Sun Apr 04, 2004 12:49 pm
by Lindaloo
NEWeatherguy wrote:breeze wrote:LOL, this is like on of those "Winter Is Dead" threads
in December!
Good one, Breeze!
People have to understand you are not going to have an outbreak of tornadoes from Minnesota to Oklahoma every single week.
Not to mention who in their right mind would want a tornado outbreak? Well certainly not me.
Posted: Sun Apr 04, 2004 12:52 pm
by wx247
Lindaloo wrote:NEWeatherguy wrote:breeze wrote:LOL, this is like on of those "Winter Is Dead" threads
in December!
Good one, Breeze!
People have to understand you are not going to have an outbreak of tornadoes from Minnesota to Oklahoma every single week.
Not to mention who in their right mind would want a tornado outbreak? Well certainly not me.
Why not??? Why not have that an a Cat. 5 hit the coast of MS at the same time.
Add flooding conditions and a blizzard and you have a great time. That would rock! All the millions of people who would die. Cool!!
NOT!