(c/p from LC's long range outlook)
MEDIUM RANGE OUTLOOK
(weather trends through the next 6 to 10 days)
While I sincerely hope that the current/evolving 500MB longwave pattern is
not locking in for the duration of the Spring season, there is absolutely NO
indication of change through April 11. Essentially a moderate +PNA/-NAO
configuration, the prevailing wind and height contour fields favor warm, dry conditions
in the West and Dixie with mostly chilly and wet weather across the Midwest
and Northeast. In case you are wondering (for reasons I will expound on
tomorrow, an important anniversary in the annals of tornadic outbreaks), major severe
thunderstorm events will be extremely unlikely to occur IF the present trend
in upper atmospheric flow is maintained. It is still too early to make that
prediction, given the fact that the "season" for intense convection has about
105 days to go yet.
The sluggish eastward projection of the disturbance now dropping heavy rain
and thunder over the Desert Regions is expected to continue through Day 6.
Undercutting a block, then emerging into the lower Great Plains at a time when the
polar westerlies are in a brief northward replacement cycle, the impulse
looks to be more of a flood risk then a tornado threat (although some supercell
formation is a given at this point). KS....OK....TX may have repeated bursts of
convection between the 96 and 144 hour time frame, with ample moisture and
energy for high QPF totals. It appears that by next weekend, a northern branch
system will phase with the dewpoint and vorticity fields, dragging a reduced
potential for rough conditions through parts of Dixie.
The deep storm that whips through New England this Sunday will drag another
realm of very cold air (for April) into the Great Lakes and Northeast on Monday
and Tuesday. This being spring, the chilly domain will recede into eastern
Canada, only to be dragged back into the northern states by a shortwave
progressing from SA into ME at midweek. Model scenarios point toward abnormally low
500Mb heights from Hudson Bay into Appalachia between April 9 and 11, implying
another rain event and bout with colder readings along the East Coast by 240
hours. "
Here we are, going into the prime time of year for storms, and we STILL can't get a favorable setup in the central US. Through this entire year, the upper-level pattern has been about as unconducive for storm outbreaks as you can possibly get, and there is absolutely NO glimmer of hope in the long-range outlooks either. With the constant RIDGE in the west and TROUGH in the east, nothing even makes it to the central US anymore. So much for being in "severe weather season". Heck we had more storms last NOVEMBER than we've had this entire spring!
And I thought 2002 was a slow year.
