It's gonna be a long wet week for the plains
Posted: Sun Mar 16, 2003 6:01 pm
Starting Monday evening it looks like the plains are going to be in for a long and somewhat wet week of it. And at the beginning of the week FL and the deep south will not be left out either(see Stormsfury's thread re Fl/AL/GA weather).
Monday afternoon and evening a very strong low pressure system will begin winding up over the western Plains near the CO/WY border. The beginnnings of the wet period will start later in the evening in this area and just to it's east as this sytem, now becoming a 996mb low, begins it's long trek across the entire plains region.
By tuesday morning the low will have deepened to 988mb and moved SE to position itself over the CO/KS border and it begins to pick up some of its moisture from the almost always ready to harvest GOM. Rains will begin to pick up in the region of the low in all quadrants with some good snows probable in the higher elevations of the Rockies. At the same time a 1004mb low over the deep south near NO will produce some very heavy rains to it's east that will move across Central FL today with 3"+ possible in some areas from Tampa eastward across the peninsula. though N. FL will get more rain, it will not be on the order of the 3" mentioned above. By tuesday afternoon the still deep low over the plains will have meandered back to a position over the KS/Nebraska border while pushing rains out ahead of it into much of eastern Nebraska and Western Iowa. By evening central FL will be losing it's deluge off the east coast as the plains rains continue to fall.
By Wednesday the still 992mb low will have meandered back S towards the TX panhandle weakening some to 996mb while pulling some of it's rain S with it even though the plains will still be wet from E CO across N KS and Nebraska to Iowa. Snows will still persist over the Rockies. The heavier rains associated with this system will be over NE OK, NW AR, MO and moving NE towards Iowa. Along with these heavier rains is the threat of a strong severe weather outbreak in the same areas.
Thursday promises to continue the wet pattern over the plains, though not heavy rains with the weakened 1004mb low still in the TX panhandle area. The heavier rains will be over TN, N AL, N GA and the western portions of the Carolinas as the low finally starts to move E and NE. These rains will affect all of the SE to some degree.
Friday finds our wandering low over central Indiana at 1004mb and again intensifying as it finally begins to exit the plains and take its' rain with it, pushing the heavier rains E further into the mid-atlantic area. Evening finds the heaviest rains up and down the E coast from NJ to N FL with the still deepening 1000mb low now centered over Detroit moving NE into Canada.
Saturday finds our long lasting low still at 1000mb near Buffalo, NY with rains all up and down the E coast from FL to Maine with most of it moving off the coast except in the SE.
That's my stab at it and I welcome any corrections, further observations or other interpretations of what I've seen in the models.
Monday afternoon and evening a very strong low pressure system will begin winding up over the western Plains near the CO/WY border. The beginnnings of the wet period will start later in the evening in this area and just to it's east as this sytem, now becoming a 996mb low, begins it's long trek across the entire plains region.
By tuesday morning the low will have deepened to 988mb and moved SE to position itself over the CO/KS border and it begins to pick up some of its moisture from the almost always ready to harvest GOM. Rains will begin to pick up in the region of the low in all quadrants with some good snows probable in the higher elevations of the Rockies. At the same time a 1004mb low over the deep south near NO will produce some very heavy rains to it's east that will move across Central FL today with 3"+ possible in some areas from Tampa eastward across the peninsula. though N. FL will get more rain, it will not be on the order of the 3" mentioned above. By tuesday afternoon the still deep low over the plains will have meandered back to a position over the KS/Nebraska border while pushing rains out ahead of it into much of eastern Nebraska and Western Iowa. By evening central FL will be losing it's deluge off the east coast as the plains rains continue to fall.
By Wednesday the still 992mb low will have meandered back S towards the TX panhandle weakening some to 996mb while pulling some of it's rain S with it even though the plains will still be wet from E CO across N KS and Nebraska to Iowa. Snows will still persist over the Rockies. The heavier rains associated with this system will be over NE OK, NW AR, MO and moving NE towards Iowa. Along with these heavier rains is the threat of a strong severe weather outbreak in the same areas.
Thursday promises to continue the wet pattern over the plains, though not heavy rains with the weakened 1004mb low still in the TX panhandle area. The heavier rains will be over TN, N AL, N GA and the western portions of the Carolinas as the low finally starts to move E and NE. These rains will affect all of the SE to some degree.
Friday finds our wandering low over central Indiana at 1004mb and again intensifying as it finally begins to exit the plains and take its' rain with it, pushing the heavier rains E further into the mid-atlantic area. Evening finds the heaviest rains up and down the E coast from NJ to N FL with the still deepening 1000mb low now centered over Detroit moving NE into Canada.
Saturday finds our long lasting low still at 1000mb near Buffalo, NY with rains all up and down the E coast from FL to Maine with most of it moving off the coast except in the SE.
That's my stab at it and I welcome any corrections, further observations or other interpretations of what I've seen in the models.
