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Possible Severe for DFW Wednesday/Long Term Outlook

Posted: Tue Mar 16, 2004 7:32 am
by Suzi Q
VERY INTERESTING FORECAST THIS MORNING. EARLY SPRING SEASON
NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN...WITH A SERIES OF SEVERAL WEAK FRONTS MEANDERING AROUND THE NORTH TEXAS AREA THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK. ONE NORTHWEST FLOW SHORT WAVE LAST NIGHT PRODUCED A FEW SEVERE STORMS ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS...AND INTO THE NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY. NORTH TEXAS IS OUT OF THE ACTION TODAY.
HOWEVER... BY WEDNESDAY...THE FRONT DRIFTS NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT...WITH THE MODELS DEPICTING A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING WEST OF THE DFW AREA BY AFTERNOON...IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW. THE ETA MAY BE OVERDOING THE EXPLOSIVE DEVELOPMENT OF CAPE EAST OF THE LOW...BUT THE COMBINATION OF CAPE AND 0 TO 6 KM
SHEAR SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. THE SHEAR FORECASTS SUGGEST THAT SEVERE MULTICELL AND SUPERCELL STORMS WILL BE IN THE MIX BY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AT THIS TIME ...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN THREATS.

BEYOND THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS...THE MODELS REPLACE THE WESTERN RIDGE WITH A RATHER VIGOROUS TROUGH...IF THIS IS CORRECT...EARLY APRIL MAY BECOME A RATHER ACTIVE WEATHER PERIOD ACROSS NORTH TEXAS.

Posted: Tue Mar 16, 2004 4:30 pm
by PTrackerLA
I'm ready for severe weather season and afternoon showers and thunderstorms. I always look forward to summer this time of year but that ends once we hit late June and it's in the 90's every day :roll: .

Re: Possible Severe for DFW Wednesday/Long Term Outlook

Posted: Wed Mar 17, 2004 5:35 am
by Stormless2003
Suzi Q wrote:BEYOND THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS...THE MODELS REPLACE THE WESTERN RIDGE WITH A RATHER VIGOROUS TROUGH...IF THIS IS CORRECT...EARLY APRIL MAY BECOME A RATHER ACTIVE WEATHER PERIOD ACROSS NORTH TEXAS.


As a storm fanatic who is currently bored out of his skull, I wish.

But I won't believe it until it shows up crystal clear in the model runs less than 72 hours out. The GFS has been calling for a similar scenario to develop at least since the 12th, but so far nothing.

Posted: Wed Mar 17, 2004 12:52 pm
by CaptinCrunch
I thing this will a VERY HOT and dry summer for the South. The last two summers have been some what mild to hot but not freaking melting hot. We are do once again.

Posted: Wed Mar 17, 2004 2:10 pm
by Lindaloo
CaptinCrunch wrote:I thing this will a VERY HOT and dry summer for the South. The last two summers have been some what mild to hot but not freaking melting hot. We are do once again.


Bite your tongue. :eek:

Posted: Wed Mar 17, 2004 2:16 pm
by PTrackerLA
Last summer was not too bad down here. I believe the warmest we ever made it to last summer was around 96 degrees with normal to above normal rainfall. It's been a few years since we've hit 100 here, lets hope it's not this year!