MD Out for Red River Country...
Posted: Wed Mar 03, 2004 11:52 am
988
ACUS11 KWNS 031646
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 031646
ARZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-031845-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0152
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1046 AM CST WED MAR 03 2004
AREAS AFFECTED...N TX / CENTRAL AND SERN OK
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
VALID 031646Z - 031845Z
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY OF
S CENTRAL OK / N CENTRAL TX. THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL APPEARS TO BE
INCREASING...AND WW MAY BE REQUIRED ACROSS THIS AREA OVER THE NEXT
HOUR OR SO IF STORMS CONTINUE TO INCREASE.
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS MAIN SURFACE FRONT NOW ESTABLISHED
FROM THE BIG BEND AREA OF TX ENEWD TO NEAR TXK. ALTHOUGH MORNING
FWD SOUNDING SHOWED A FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL CAP AROUND 700 MB...OUN
SOUNDING REVEALED A WEAKER CAP NEAR 650 MB. THIS IS INDICATIVE OF
PERSISTENT VERTICAL MOTION DUE TO ISENTROPIC LIFT / WARM ADVECTION
NORTH OF SURFACE BOUNDARY WHICH CONTINUES TO RAISE AND WEAKEN THE
CAP.
WITH STRONG SLY LOW-LEVEL JET AND ASSOCIATED WARM ADVECTION /
VERTICAL MOTION FORECAST TO PERSIST ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY /
SERN OK...EXPECT CAP TO CONTINUE WEAKENING WITH TIME WHILE LOW-LEVEL
THETA-E INCREASES.
WITH ETA PFC SOUNDINGS INDICATING OVER 1000 J/KG ELEVATED CAPE AND
CURRENT WIND PROFILES INDICATING PLENTY OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR FOR
STORM ROTATION...EXPECT THE THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL WITH ELEVATED
SUPERCELLS TO INCREASE WITH TIME ACROSS THIS AREA.
..GOSS.. 03/03/2004
PLEASE SEE http://WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...
33759888 34689836 35819680 36029478 34289438 33499639
33249828
ACUS11 KWNS 031646
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 031646
ARZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-031845-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0152
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1046 AM CST WED MAR 03 2004
AREAS AFFECTED...N TX / CENTRAL AND SERN OK
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
VALID 031646Z - 031845Z
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY OF
S CENTRAL OK / N CENTRAL TX. THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL APPEARS TO BE
INCREASING...AND WW MAY BE REQUIRED ACROSS THIS AREA OVER THE NEXT
HOUR OR SO IF STORMS CONTINUE TO INCREASE.
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS MAIN SURFACE FRONT NOW ESTABLISHED
FROM THE BIG BEND AREA OF TX ENEWD TO NEAR TXK. ALTHOUGH MORNING
FWD SOUNDING SHOWED A FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL CAP AROUND 700 MB...OUN
SOUNDING REVEALED A WEAKER CAP NEAR 650 MB. THIS IS INDICATIVE OF
PERSISTENT VERTICAL MOTION DUE TO ISENTROPIC LIFT / WARM ADVECTION
NORTH OF SURFACE BOUNDARY WHICH CONTINUES TO RAISE AND WEAKEN THE
CAP.
WITH STRONG SLY LOW-LEVEL JET AND ASSOCIATED WARM ADVECTION /
VERTICAL MOTION FORECAST TO PERSIST ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY /
SERN OK...EXPECT CAP TO CONTINUE WEAKENING WITH TIME WHILE LOW-LEVEL
THETA-E INCREASES.
WITH ETA PFC SOUNDINGS INDICATING OVER 1000 J/KG ELEVATED CAPE AND
CURRENT WIND PROFILES INDICATING PLENTY OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR FOR
STORM ROTATION...EXPECT THE THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL WITH ELEVATED
SUPERCELLS TO INCREASE WITH TIME ACROSS THIS AREA.
..GOSS.. 03/03/2004
PLEASE SEE http://WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...
33759888 34689836 35819680 36029478 34289438 33499639
33249828