
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0250
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0454 PM CST FRI MAR 14 2003
AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND SRN FL
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
VALID 142254Z - 150000Z
ISOLD LARGE HAIL OR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS MAY OCCUR THIS EVENING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL/SRN FL. PRIND THAT WW WILL NOT BE
NECESSARY GIVEN THE SPARSE COVERAGE.
SEA AND LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO SUFFICIENT
CONVERGENCE TO INITIATE ISOLD TSTMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY
WEST OF PBI AND OVER NWRN GLADES AND HIGHLAND COUNTIES. VWP AND
RUC40 SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES ARE WEAK...
THOUGH FLOW ABOVE 500 MB INCREASES TO OVER 30 KTS. THUS...
KINEMATICS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR SUSTAINED ORGANIZED
CONVECTION. HOWEVER...MLCAPES VALUES ARE NEAR 2000 J/KG AND
GIVEN RELATIVELY COOL MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES...ISOLD LARGE HAIL IS
POSSIBLE ALONG WITH DAMAGING OUTFLOW WINDS.