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Severe Weather Outbreak Looking Likely Early Next Week...
Posted: Fri Mar 14, 2003 6:04 pm
by wx247
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
215 PM CST FRI MAR 14 2003
THREAT FOR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE MONDAY AND TUESDAY
CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD.
LONGER TERM: AS STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION
THIS WEEKEND...ALL EYES WILL BE FOCUSED ON A MAJOR STORM SYSTEM AND
ATTENDANT UPPER LEVEL JET ENERGY THAT IS PRESENTLY APPROACHING THE
WEST COAST. FOR OVER A WEEK NOW...MEDIUM RANGE AND NOW SHORT RANGE
SOLUTIONS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF A VIGOROUS
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT BASIN AS AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG
JET STREAM SPLITS WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM TAKING THE BRUNT OF THE
ENERGY.
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A WELL DEFINED
SHORTWAVE ALONG THE ARIZONA/MEXICAN BORDER THAT WILL APPROACH THE
AREA ON SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH THE BRUNT OF THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST
ALONG THE GULF COAST...ETA/GFS HEIGHT FIELDS INDICATE ENOUGH OF A
SHORTWAVE WEAKNESS THAT MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO BREAK THE CAP SUNDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS WRN MO/SE KS...AND THEREFORE HAVE INTRODUCED
SCATTERED STORMS FROM THEN INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
ON MONDAY...UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AND BECOME NEGATIVELY
TILTED AIDED BY FAVORABLE JET POSITION AND STRONGLY DIFFLUENT UPPER
FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL US. RAPID LEE CYCLOGENESIS AND STRONG GULF
INFLUX OF MOISTURE WILL SET THE STAGE FOR WHAT WILL LIKELY BE AN
IMPRESSIVE SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK ACROSS THE NATION'S MID SECTION
LATE MONDAY AS INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND VERY FAVORABLE
SHEAR PROFILES ARE IGNITED BY APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM/DRY LINE.
UNFORTUNATELY...LACK OF A UPSTREAM KICKER WILL LIKELY CAUSE UPPER
LEVEL STORM SYSTEM TO CLOSE AND CUT OFF ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
WHILE A SECOND UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM ROTATES UNDERNEATH. DRY SLOT
ASSOCIATED WITH FIRST MAJOR SYSTEM COULD ONLY HELP FUEL WHAT WILL
LIKELY BE A SECOND ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER ON TUESDAY AS SECONDARY
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT TAKES PLACE ACROSS THE MIDWEST. HOPEFULLY...
THIS ACTIVITY WILL REGENERATE EAST OF THE CWA...BUT CANNOT RULE THIS
OUT ENTIRELY GIVEN EXPECTED VERY SLOW PROGRESSION OF THE OVERALL
LONGWAVE PATTERN AND MODEL TREND IN THIS DIRECTION. WITH THAT
SAID....HAVE MAINTAINED LIKELY POPS MONDAY NIGHT AND EXTENDED THEM
INTO TUESDAY ACROSS CENTRAL/S CENTRAL MO. HAVE ALSO UPPER
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY THINKING THAT DRY SLOTTING WILL LEAD TO SOME
SUNSHINE COMBINED WITH PREVAILING WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA.
I will posting more info. here from various outlets throughout the weekend.
Posted: Fri Mar 14, 2003 6:05 pm
by wx247
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
100 PM CST FRI MAR 14 2003
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE MISSOURI OZARKS AND EXTREME
SOUTHEAST KANSAS.
.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
A POWERFUL UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL ORGANIZE OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THIS WEEKEND...WHILE UNSEASONABLY WARM AND
MOIST AIR SPREADS NORTH INTO THE MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY. AS
THIS SYSTEM EJECTS INTO THE PLAINS ON MONDAY...SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE WILL RAPIDLY DEEPEN WEST OF THE OZARKS. THE COMBINATION
OF MOISTURE...INSTABILITY...AND LIFT ARE FORECAST TO COME TOGETHER
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY NIGHT FOR A MAJOR SEVERE WEATHER
OUTBREAK ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY...WHICH WILL
LIKELY INCLUDE THE MISSOURI OZARKS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS. SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE AND AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY STALL ACROSS
THE REGION TUESDAY AS ANOTHER POTENT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM ROTATES
INTO THE PLAINS.
Posted: Fri Mar 14, 2003 6:07 pm
by wx247
Posted: Fri Mar 14, 2003 7:13 pm
by vbhoutex
Gee!!! Just what we need!!! Severe Weather!!! Gonna have to watch that storm coming into Cali closely!! My joke about a blizzard in another thread may come true! :o :o
Posted: Fri Mar 14, 2003 9:04 pm
by wx247
Here is the latest Day 2 Outlook.
Posted: Fri Mar 14, 2003 9:14 pm
by breeze
Hmmm...March 17th - 19th in my area of southern middle TN...
the forecast for the 18th and 19th is calling for thunderstorms...we'll
have to watch for severe!
Posted: Fri Mar 14, 2003 9:14 pm
by wx247
You sure will Breeze...and you can count on us here to keep you updated as well!
Posted: Fri Mar 14, 2003 9:32 pm
by Anonymous
Yeah guys looks like major severe weather outbreak. I will be updating my discussions on my severe weather page and discussion page. My site is
http://www.indianaweatheronline.com
BRANDON
Posted: Fri Mar 14, 2003 9:40 pm
by breeze
Thanks, Garrett!
Thanks, Brandon!
It's about time for the spring excitement with the weather!
Posted: Fri Mar 14, 2003 9:41 pm
by wx247
You should have been here Wednesday night. Lots of excitement at my house.
Posted: Fri Mar 14, 2003 9:44 pm
by breeze
Ohhh??? What up???
Posted: Fri Mar 14, 2003 9:45 pm
by wx247
A big severe weather event across Kansas. That moved into MO. We didn't have much at the house per say, just dime size hail...but several hail reports up to golfball size!
Posted: Fri Mar 14, 2003 9:50 pm
by breeze
I'm jealous!!!! LoL, we had a thunder storm, a few days ago...
...a few big claps of thunder, a few bolts of bright lightning,
and, ahhhh...where did it go? :o (*sigh)
C'mon, Spring!
Posted: Fri Mar 14, 2003 10:02 pm
by wx247
It is coming Breeze. It officially comes next week!
Posted: Sat Mar 15, 2003 10:48 am
by wx247
Here is a look at the latest outlook for severe weather on Monday from the SPC...
Posted: Sat Mar 15, 2003 12:49 pm
by wx247
***NEW SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT FROM THE NWS IN SPRINGFIELD,MO ***
...Powerful Spring Storm System to Bring The Threat of Severe Thunderstorms...
A very intense, slow moving low pressure system will develop over the central plains on Monday and drift slowly northeastward toward the middle Mississippi valley by midweek. A warm, moist, and unstable airmass will stream northward into the central U.S. out ahead of this system, setting the stage for a severe weather outbreak Monday afternoon west of the Ozarks...gradually shifting eastward into the Ozarks region Monday night into Tuesday. Given the forecasted intensity of this storm system, there is a chance of a major severe weather outbreak, including the possibility of tornadoes, somewhere over the central plains and Mississippi valley regions Monday into Tuesday. This storm system is still in the developing stages and later forecasts will undoubtedly need to be fine tuned, but as of now it appears as though the Ozarks region may be under the gun for severe weather early this upcoming work week. Check back to this website for later forecasts, statements, and updates on this developing spring storm.
Posted: Sat Mar 15, 2003 2:22 pm
by wx247
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
100 PM CST SAT MAR 15 2003
...SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EPISODES POSSIBLY MONDAY NIGHT AND
AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE MISSOURI OZARKS AND EXTREME
SOUTHEAST KANSAS.
.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
A POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM AND VIGOROUS UPPER JET STREAM WILL FURTHER
ORGANIZE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS ON SUNDAY. AN INITIAL UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AND MAY
CAUSE WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS FAR WESTERN
MISSOURI AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS INTO SUNDAY EVENING. THESE STORMS ARE
NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE.
ON MONDAY...A WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS WILL ALREADY BE IN PLACE AS
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE RAPIDLY DEVELOPS ACROSS THE PLAINS. THE
COMBINATION OF MOISTURE...INSTABILITY AND LIFT WILL BE FAVORABLE
FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WEST OF THE MISSOURI OZARKS MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE AS
THEY MOVE INTO THE OUTLOOK AREA MONDAY EVENING...AS VERTICAL WIND
PROFILES WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE.
IN THE WAKE OF THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT...THE STORM SYSTEM WILL
REMAIN STALLED ACROSS THE PLAINS...ALLOWING ANOTHER SURGE OF
WARM...MOIST AIR INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY. A SECOND...AND
STRONGER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL ROTATE INTO THE PLAINS AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
REFIRE ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THE LIKELIHOOD
OF SEVERE WEATHER ONCE AGAIN AND THE ADDITIONAL THREAT OF HEAVY
RAINFALL.
GIVEN THE POTENTIALLY WIDESPREAD AND SIGNIFICANT NATURE OF THESE
EVENTS...PERSONS IN THE OUTLOOK AREA ARE URGED TO MONITOR LATER
FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.
Posted: Sun Mar 16, 2003 1:13 am
by Stormsfury
wx247, I just saw some new information for the Southeast on Wednesday/Thursday ... and it looks quite frightening ...
Alabama, Georgia, and the Carolinas may be looking more and more in line for tornadoes if the ETA/ECMWF are correct in the wind profiles.
7 am EST WED Wind profiles
850mb Wind Profiles
300mb Wind profiles - look at how much divergence of winds occurs over AL/TN area.
Also look at how much the winds veer with height.
Alabama/Georgia may actually see some large tornadoes if this wind parameters verify.
This information I think needs a thread of its own also.
Posted: Sun Mar 16, 2003 11:21 am
by wx247
There definitely looks to be a big severe threat there with tornadoes a possibility. We will have to wait and see if that info. verifies!
Posted: Sun Mar 16, 2003 12:09 pm
by Stormsfury
The overall pattern is very amplified right now and we're getting a lot of closed 500mb lows in the U.S., basically one after another. We have the exiting one which is opening up now across NC and pulling NNE, which brought the heavy rainfalls into the Midlands of South Carolina and also North Carolina as well.
Today, a new low is developing in the Gulf of Mexico which will delay the severe weather outbreak some back in OK/TX until Monday (because return flow across the Western Gulf is being delayed). This low should be responsible for bring the Southeast another round of rainfall once again, with maybe some strong storms in Florida (Northern).
