STORM2K

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 11
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1000 AM CST MON FEB 23 2004


THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF


SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA
EXTREME SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI
COASTAL WATERS


EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 1000 AM UNTIL 300
PM CST.


TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS
TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.


THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS ALONG AND 45 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND
SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 90 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF HOUMA LOUISIANA TO
45 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF GULFPORT MISSISSIPPI.


REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.
PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS.


DISCUSSION...CLUSTER OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS HAS DEVELOPED ALONG
SURFACE BOUNDARY OVER SOUTHERN LA. THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY TRACK
EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY...IN AN INCREASINGLY MOIST/UNSTABLE
AIRMASS. CURRENT VAD/MODEL DATA SUGGEST VERY FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL
AND DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES FOR SUPERCELLS AND POSSIBLE
TORNADOES.


AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND
GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500.
MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25035.


...HART

Hmm I dont think the NWS or SPC expected the threat there today... They werent even in the slight risk area. Storms evolving quicker/packing more of a punch than they thought.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
600 AM CST MON FEB 23 2004

ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-231815-
BALDWIN COASTAL-BALDWIN INLAND-BUTLER-CHOCTAW-CLARKE-CONECUH-
COVINGTON-CRENSHAW-ESCAMBIA-ESCAMBIA COASTAL-ESCAMBIA INLAND-GEORGE-
GREENE-MOBILE COASTAL-MOBILE INLAND-MONROE-OKALOOSA COASTAL-
OKALOOSA INLAND-PERRY-SANTA ROSA COASTAL-SANTA ROSA INLAND-STONE-
WASHINGTON-WAYNE-WILCOX-
600 AM CST MON FEB 23 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI AND THE EXTREME WESTERN PORTION OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.

.DAY ONE...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

AREAS OF RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD FROM WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. A FEW SPOTS MAY RECEIVE UP TO AN INCH
OR MORE OF RAIN...ESPECIALLY THIS MORNING OVER INLAND SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI AND THE ADJACENT ALABAMA COUNTIES. THIS AMOUNT OF RAIN
WOULD LIKELY CAUSE SOME PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS AND HIGHWAYS.

THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW TODAY.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGERS SHOULD NOT BE
NECESSARY THROUGH TONIGHT.

Jekyhe32210 wrote:Hmm I dont think the NWS or SPC expected the threat there today... They werent even in the slight risk area. Storms evolving quicker/packing more of a punch than they thought.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
600 AM CST MON FEB 23 2004

ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-231815-
BALDWIN COASTAL-BALDWIN INLAND-BUTLER-CHOCTAW-CLARKE-CONECUH-
COVINGTON-CRENSHAW-ESCAMBIA-ESCAMBIA COASTAL-ESCAMBIA INLAND-GEORGE-
GREENE-MOBILE COASTAL-MOBILE INLAND-MONROE-OKALOOSA COASTAL-
OKALOOSA INLAND-PERRY-SANTA ROSA COASTAL-SANTA ROSA INLAND-STONE-
WASHINGTON-WAYNE-WILCOX-
600 AM CST MON FEB 23 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI AND THE EXTREME WESTERN PORTION OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.

.DAY ONE...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

AREAS OF RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD FROM WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. A FEW SPOTS MAY RECEIVE UP TO AN INCH
OR MORE OF RAIN...ESPECIALLY THIS MORNING OVER INLAND SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI AND THE ADJACENT ALABAMA COUNTIES. THIS AMOUNT OF RAIN
WOULD LIKELY CAUSE SOME PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS AND HIGHWAYS.

THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW TODAY.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGERS SHOULD NOT BE
NECESSARY THROUGH TONIGHT.

The SPC did...

Jekyhe32210 wrote:Hmm I dont think the NWS or SPC expected the threat there today... They werent even in the slight risk area. Storms evolving quicker/packing more of a punch than they thought.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
600 AM CST MON FEB 23 2004

ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-231815-
BALDWIN COASTAL-BALDWIN INLAND-BUTLER-CHOCTAW-CLARKE-CONECUH-
COVINGTON-CRENSHAW-ESCAMBIA-ESCAMBIA COASTAL-ESCAMBIA INLAND-GEORGE-
GREENE-MOBILE COASTAL-MOBILE INLAND-MONROE-OKALOOSA COASTAL-
OKALOOSA INLAND-PERRY-SANTA ROSA COASTAL-SANTA ROSA INLAND-STONE-
WASHINGTON-WAYNE-WILCOX-
600 AM CST MON FEB 23 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI AND THE EXTREME WESTERN PORTION OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.

.DAY ONE...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

AREAS OF RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD FROM WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. A FEW SPOTS MAY RECEIVE UP TO AN INCH
OR MORE OF RAIN...ESPECIALLY THIS MORNING OVER INLAND SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI AND THE ADJACENT ALABAMA COUNTIES. THIS AMOUNT OF RAIN
WOULD LIKELY CAUSE SOME PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS AND HIGHWAYS.

THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW TODAY.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGERS SHOULD NOT BE
NECESSARY THROUGH TONIGHT.

The SPC did...

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1031 AM CST MON FEB 23 2004

VALID 231630Z - 241200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 S
VCT 35 NW LRD ..CONT.. DRT 30 SE SJT 30 NNE BWD 40 SSW DAL 25 NNW
HEZ 65 NW CEW 20 ENE AQQ.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SE YUM 35 N NID 65
ESE TPH 30 S GCN SOW 35 SE 4CR 50 NW CDS 20 S BVO 60 SW MEM 55 ESE
AGS 40 SSW CRE ..CONT.. 20 NE MLB 15 S PIE ..CONT.. 20 SE CRP 20
S LRD.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 S AST 45 WNW MFR
20 NNE ACV.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE LGB 40 NNE SAN
CZZ.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM CENTRAL TX ALONG THE GULF
COAST TO THE WESTERN FL PANHANDLE...

LARGE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES
TODAY...WITH SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD FROM
NORTHERN MEXICO ACROSS TX AND INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES.
EACH OF THESE SYSTEMS WILL POSE A RISK OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS.

...LA/MS/AL...
CLUSTER OF INTENSE STORMS IS CURRENTLY ALONG A SURFACE BOUNDARY OVER
SOUTHERN LA. THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY MOVE EASTWARD ALONG THE FRONT
TODAY...AFFECTING PARTS OF EXTREME SOUTHERN MS AND POSSIBLY INTO
SOUTHERN AL/FL PANHANDLE. BOUNDARY REMAINS OFFSHORE IN THESE
AREAS...BUT MAY LIFT NORTHWARD AS LOW LEVEL JET SHIFTS EASTWARD.
AIRMASS SOUTH OF FRONT IS MOIST/UNSTABLE WITH MUCAPE VALUES OVER
1000 J/KG...ALONG WITH STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR. THREAT OF ISOLATED
TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL EXIST WITH STORMS SOUTH OF
FRONT...WITH A RISK OF HAIL ALONG/NORTH OF FRONT.

...CENTRAL/EAST TX...
ANOTHER CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS IS OVER CENTRAL TX APPROACHING FTW.
THESE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EASTWARD TODAY...ENCOUNTERING
AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS. COMBINATION OF BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION SHOULD PROVIDE AREAS OF
MUCAPE OVER 1000 J/KG...ESPECIALLY ALONG AN AXIS FROM AUS/SAT
EASTWARD TO NEAR HOU. AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION IS EXPECTED HERE
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH THE RISK OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS IN STRONGER CELLS.

...WEST CENTRAL TX LATE TONIGHT...
ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL MOVE OUT OF NORTHERN
MEXICO INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY BY 24/12Z. THIS WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN RENEWED CONVECTION IN THE SJT/DRT AREAS OF TX TOWARD
MORNING. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND STRONG UVVS SUGGEST A RISK
OF LARGE HAIL IN STRONGER CELLS.

..HART/CROSBIE.. 02/23/2004

Yeah-that is true--but noticing the time--outlook was actually issued after the watch was... I dont think the area was that big early this morning---guess thats why they update outlooks several times a day

Just in time for Mardi Gras! I hope nothing too severe occurs there with all of those people there!

Jekyhe32210 wrote:Yeah-that is true--but noticing the time--outlook was actually issued after the watch was... I dont think the area was that big early this morning---guess thats why they update outlooks several times a day

I did not see the earlier outlooks, so I DO believe you. And, boy do I have stories of the SPC QUICKLY updating the outlooks when things change.

New Orleans is absolutely getting hammered right now with Tornadic thunderstorms in the vicinity. Also a high wind warning with wind gusts over 50 mph reported today. You really couldn't ask for any worse weather for Mardi Gras. Check out the radar:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/latest/DS.p19r0/si.klix.shtml

Wow--was about to add about the high wind warning--looks pretty rough over that way the local warning map for New Orleans area is all kinds of colors. http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ifps/gridpoint.php?site=lix

I was going to reply to this thread when my power went out over an hour ago! I just got my power restored...thank goodness! It's been raining all day...my yard looks like a river.

It hasn't been bad up this way, but we've had lots of rain. My yard looks like a lake. I had to be out in the rain this morning feeding the calves. Fortunately for me, my barn, which happens to be my old house, has a porch on the front. I stood on the porch and fed the calves so I stayed dry. The worst was going from the new house to the barn LOL.

Stay safe, everybuddy!