STORM2K

Posted: **Thu Feb 19, 2004 5:59 pm**

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0114
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0434 PM CST THU FEB 19 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...S-CNTRL KS/N-CNTRL OK INTO SERN KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL

VALID 192234Z - 200030Z

DEVELOPING TSTMS OVER NWRN OK WILL POSE A WIND/HAIL THREAT EWD/NEWD
INTO S-CNTRL KS/N-CNTRL OK OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. CONVECTIVE
TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED AND A WW MAY BE REQUIRED. DAY ONE OUTLOOK
WILL UPDATED SHORTLY.

AS OF 2215Z...VISIBLE SATELLITE AND VANCE AFB/ENID WSR-88D RADAR
IMAGERY SHOWED TSTMS DEVELOPING OVER NWRN OK
/HARPER...WOODWARD...DEWEY COUNTIES/ WITHIN AREA OF STRONG LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF RAPIDLY ADVANCING DRYLINE AND SE OF DEEPENING
SURFACE LOW S OF DDC. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE
70S IMMEDIATELY E OF THE DRYLINE OVER WRN OK...LIMITED LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE HAS IMPEDED THE DESTABILIZATION PROCESS WITH MUCAPES AOB
200 J/KG. HOWEVER...LATEST MESOANALYSIS DOES INDICATE SLIGHTLY
HIGHER BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE /I.E. 45-50F DEWPOINTS/ ALONG AND
JUST TO THE W OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR. IN ADDITION...RUC FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT DYNAMIC FORCING AHEAD OF EJECTING UPPER
SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF
8-8.5 C/KM OVER THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS OVER N-CNTRL OK/S-CNTRL KS. THESE
STEEPER LAPSE RATES COUPLED WITH THE SLIGHTLY HIGHER LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MUCAPES APPROACHING 500-700 J/KG IN THE
20/00Z-03Z TIME FRAME.

GIVEN THIS EXPECTED DESTABILIZATION...TSTMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
STRENGTHEN LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING AS THEY
MOVE/DEVELOP EWD/NEWD ACROSS S-CNTRL KS/N-CNTRL OK AND EVENTUALLY
INTO SERN KS. DAMAGING WINDS WILL LIKELY BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT GIVEN THE STRONG AMBIENT WIND FIELDS IN ADDITION TO
THE DEEPLY-MIXED SUB-CLOUD CONDITIONS...WHICH SHOULD ENHANCE
DOWNDRAFT POTENTIAL. MOREOVER...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME MID-LEVEL UPDRAFT ROTATION WILL PROMOTE LARGE HAIL
PRODUCTION IN THE STRONGEST STORMS.

A WW MAY BE REQUIRED WITHIN THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS.

..MEAD.. 02/19/2004

PLEASE SEE http://WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...DDC...

36999961 37509920 38099791 38439629 37719490 36489595
35869902

Posted: **Thu Feb 19, 2004 6:25 pm**

I see "ATTN: TOP" How cool!

Posted: **Thu Feb 19, 2004 6:38 pm**

I have a feeling we are not too far away from the start of the TSTM season across much of the central plains. I mean, were are talking about confident (if there is such a word with all these "bubbles") t-storm forecasts.

Posted: **Thu Feb 19, 2004 6:40 pm**

Update SWO Day 1:

Code: Select all

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0446 PM CST THU FEB 19 2004

VALID 192245Z - 201200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 W
END 50 WSW P28 40 NNW P28 SLN MHK TOP MKC 50 SSE OJC JLN BVO PNC END
45 W END.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM UMN 25 NE OKC 30 ENE
CSM 40 E GAG 45 S DDC LBL LAA CNK FNB DSM CID MMO CMI SLO UMN.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SMALL PART OF NRN OK AND MUCH
OF SRN/ERN KS...

AMD FOR NW OK CONVECTIVE TRENDS AND DOWNSTREAM SEVERE POTENTIAL OVER
KS NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. REF SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 114 FOR
DETAILS.

..EDWARDS.. 02/19/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.

Posted: **Thu Feb 19, 2004 6:41 pm**

First Warning has gone up in OK:

Code: Select all

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
514 PM CST THU FEB 19 2004


THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A


* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
ALFALFA COUNTY IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA


* UNTIL 600 PM CST


* AT 514 PM CST...DOPPLER RADAR DETECTED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM 6
MILES SOUTHWEST OF LAMBERT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.


* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE AMORITA...BYRON...CHEROKEE...
DRIFTWOOD...INGERSOLL...LAMBERT AND NORTHWESTERN GREAT SALT PLAINS
LAKE


WINDS NEAR 65 MPH ARE LIKELY.

Posted: **Thu Feb 19, 2004 6:54 pm**

Cool. Come to Topeka.

Posted: **Thu Feb 19, 2004 7:30 pm**

Is it wrong to feel INCREDIBLY giddy reading this?? LOL, because if it is then I will never be right! :lol:

Oh I wish I lived down there! Eastern Iowa is just not the place to be! *sigh*

Posted: **Thu Feb 19, 2004 7:36 pm**

The folks down at AWC has issued a convective sigmet for the tstms...

Code: Select all

CONVECTIVE SIGMET 2C
VALID UNTIL 0155Z
OK KS 
FROM 30SW ICT-30N END-20WNW END-60WSW ICT-30SW ICT
AREA SEV TS MOV FROM 24035KT. TOPS TO FL320.
HAIL TO 1 IN...WIND GUSTS TO 50KT POSS.
OUTLOOK VALID 200155-200555
FROM 50W IRK-SGF-TUL-40SSW END-70W ICT-SLN-50W IRK
WST ISSUANCES POSS. REFER TO MOST RECENT ACUS01 KWNS FROM STORM
PREDICTION CENTER FOR SYNOPSIS AND METEOROLOGICAL DETAILS.

Posted: **Thu Feb 19, 2004 7:38 pm**

Here's a NOWCAST from NWS Wichita:

Code: Select all

SHORT TERM FORECAST *DO NOT USE AFTER 9 PM*
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
621 PM CST THU FEB 19 2004
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------KSZ067>069 - 082 - 083 - 091>093 - 200300 - 
RENO - HARVEY - BUTLER - KINGMAN - SEDGWICK - HARPER - SUMNER - COWLEY - 
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ARKANSAS CITY - WINFIELD...EL DORADO...
HUTCHINSON...NEWTON...WICHITA
621 PM CST THU FEB 19 2004
.NOW...
THROUGH 9 PM, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH ACROSS THE AREA. ISOLATED STORMS COULD PRODUCE
[b]HAIL UP TO PENNY SIZE[/b] AND [b]WIND GUSTS AROUND 50 MPH[/b]. RAIN AMOUNTS
OF AROUND ONE-QUARTER INCH ARE POSSIBLE.
$$
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------KSZ032 - 033 - 047>052 - 200300 - 
RUSSELL - LINCOLN - BARTON - ELLSWORTH - SALINE - RICE - MCPHERSON - MARION - 
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...GREAT BEND...MCPHERSON...RUSSELL...SALINA
621 PM CST THU FEB 19 2004
.NOW...
THROUGH 9 PM, WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH ACROSS THE AREA. PEA SIZED HAIL IS
POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. RAIN AMOUNTS OF LESS THAN ONE-
QUARTER INCH ARE EXPECTED.
$$
JMC

Posted: **Thu Feb 19, 2004 8:18 pm**

Keep coming to Topeka!

Posted: **Thu Feb 19, 2004 8:22 pm**

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
705 PM CST THU FEB 19 2004

SENT A QUICK FCST UPDATE, MAINLY TO CANCEL THE WIND ADVISORY FOR
S-CNTRL/SERN KS. OTHERWISE, SCATTERED SHOWERS/T-STORMS WL CONT TO
MOVE EWD ACROSS S-CNTRL AND SERN KS THIS EVENING AS A STRONG UPPER
LVL VORT MAX SWEEPS ACROSS. JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY/WIND SHEAR TO
PRODUCE ISOLD STRONG STORMS, WITH PRIMARILY WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 50
MPH AND SMALL HAIL. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONT AS THE ACTIVITY WORKS
EWD INTO SERN KS THRU 06Z. IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER SYSTEM, WINDS WL
SHIFT TO NW AND INCREASE TO AT LEAST 20-30 MPH OVERNIGHT. SLIGHTLY
CONCERNED THAT WE COULD ONCE AGAIN APPROACH WIND ADVSRY CRITERIA
LATE TONIGHT AND WL CONT TO MONITOR THIS.

JMC

------

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
457 PM CST THU FEB 19 2004

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-201100-
ANDERSON-BROWN-CLAY-CLOUD-COFFEY-DICKINSON-DOUGLAS-FRANKLIN-GEARY-
JACKSON-JEFFERSON-LYON-MARSHALL-MORRIS-NEMAHA-OSAGE-OTTAWA-
POTTAWATOMIE-REPUBLIC-RILEY-SHAWNEE-WABAUNSEE-WASHINGTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ABILENE...CLAY CENTER...CONCORDIA...
EMPORIA...HIAWATHA...JUNCTION CITY...LAWRENCE...MANHATTAN...
MARYSVILLE...OTTAWA AND TOPEKA
457 PM CST THU FEB 19 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL...NORTHEAST AND
EAST CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. A
FEW OF THE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE AND PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND STRONG
WINDS...MAINLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM COUNCIL GROVE TO OSKALOOSA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED TONIGHT.

Posted: **Thu Feb 19, 2004 8:31 pm**

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
727 PM CST THU FEB 19 2004

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
GRANT COUNTY IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA

* UNTIL 815 PM CST

* AT 727 PM CST...DOPPLER RADAR DETECTED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM 5
MILES SOUTHWEST OF NASH...MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE JEFFERSON...MEDFORD...NASH AND
POND CREEK

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS ARE LIKELY.

Posted: **Thu Feb 19, 2004 9:44 pm**

Rain/storms heading my way! 8-)

Posted: **Thu Feb 19, 2004 9:59 pm**

DAVID!!! You are sooo lucky!!! Go outside and smell that fresh rain smell for me PLEASE!!

Posted: **Thu Feb 19, 2004 11:21 pm**

I can't believe I'm actually posting about thunderstorms-I've only posted about winter storms!! Usually when these are happenning, I'm setting trot lines for catfish so I can never post!!!! Radar seems to show a pretty good cell heading towards Lawrence-I hope these hold together-I'm kind of watching these next few systems to see how our moisture situation will play out this Spring-Too often the past 4 years, these sytems have split around us!! Hopefully this is an indication of a wet Spring for us-we really need it!!

Posted: **Thu Feb 19, 2004 11:28 pm**

Maybe nothing like May 4, 2003, but definitely some moisture will be nice. And the rain does not need to be afraid of June, July and August. :lol:

It is more than welcome during those times, too!

Posted: **Thu Feb 19, 2004 11:39 pm**

NEWeatherguy:

I totally agree!! The snow really helped and we had some nice rain in mid Jan., but man we are still so dry over all-many of the ponds and small lakes here froze down to the bottom prettyy far from shore-there will be some fish kills here I'm sure. If we don't get some good rains this Spring and then have more heat like last summer (Lawrence was the hot spot in the Nation twice last summer at 113) we are in a real mess-the farmers will be in dire straits!! Yea, May 4th was too close for comfort for me-the tornado touched down about 500 yards from my house and did major damage to a few structures-Lawrence actually lucked out on that-By the time it got here, it was really going up and down and was spotty-if it had stayed at full strength (I think it was close to an f4 when it first formed) my house would have prob. been gone and the whole South West side of Lawrence would have been devastated. I like big winter storms and howling North winds, but Tornados are a whole different beast!!-here is to some rain every month this year untill November when it can start to change back to snow!!!!!

Posted: **Thu Feb 19, 2004 11:42 pm**

NowCast from Valley, NE. Might even hear a clap of thunder as far north as Lincoln and Shenadoah Iowa!

CASS - DOUGLAS - FREMONT IA - GAGE - JEFFERSON - JOHNSON - LANCASTER - MILLS IA -
MONTGOMERY IA - NEMAHA - OTOE - PAGE IA - PAWNEE - POTTAWATTAMIE IA - RICHARDSON -
SALINE - SARPY - SEWARD - SHELBY IA -
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...AUBURN...BEATRICE...BELLEVUE...CLARINDA...
COUNCIL BLUFFS...CRETE...FAIRBURY...FALLS CITY...HARLAN...LINCOLN...
NEBRASKA CITY...OMAHA...RED OAK...SEWARD...SIDNEY
1016 PM CST THU FEB 19 2004
.NOW...
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA
AND SOUTHWEST IOWA THROUGH MIDNIGHT. ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD RANGE
FROM A TRACE TO LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH. THE FALL CITY AND
SHENANDOAH AREAS MAY EVEN HEAR A CLAP OF THUNDER.
$$
ZAPOTOCNY

NowCast from Topeka...maybe some small hail! :eek:

SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1001 PM CST THU FEB 19 2004

DICKINSON - MARSHALL - NEMAHA - BROWN - RILEY - POTTAWATOMIE - JACKSON - GEARY -
MORRIS - WABAUNSEE - SHAWNEE - JEFFERSON - LYON - OSAGE - COFFEY - DOUGLAS -
FRANKLIN - ANDERSON -
1001 PM CST THU FEB 19 2004
.NOW...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 11 PM ALONG AND
SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM HERINGTON TO MANHATTAN TO SENECA. GUSTY
WINDS TO AROUND 40 MPH...DANGEROUS LIGHTNING AND SMALL HAIL ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS IN THE HERINGTON TO
MANHATTAN AND SENECA AREAS. IN THE EMPORIA TO BURLINGTON AREAS
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS MAY PRODUCE LOCAL POOLING AND PONDING OF
WATER MAINLY IN LOW LYING AREAS.

Posted: **Fri Feb 20, 2004 10:25 am**

I was soooo busy with an annotated bibliography for the class I am in right now I totally missed out.

Oh well... more is on the way soon.

STORM2K

Attention our KS/OK Friends...WW time?

Attention our KS/OK Friends...WW time?