HPC: EC Good to Go Next Week, GFS Hocks a Loogie (Again)

[Scott_inVA]

BIG DOG ALERT IS STILL ON.

Good Disc from HPC, snip:

WELL UPSTREAM...GUIDANCE FROM THE ECMWF...ALL 51 MEMBERS
OF THE ECMWF ENSEMBLES..THE NCEP ENSEMBLE MEAN...UKMET...
CANADIAN...AND NOGAPS REMAIN IN CLOSE AGREEMENT AND ALL
STRONGLY SUPPORT A PREFERRED AND MORE CLOSED/DEEP...
CONSOLIDATED...AND LESS PROGRESSIVE MAJOR LATE WINTER
STORM SYSTEM TRACK ENEWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EAST-
CENTRAL US MON-THU THAN DEPICTED BY THE 00 OR 06 UTC GFS.
THIS SOLUTION OFFERS A DRASTIC ADJUSTMENT TO THE GFS AND
PROLONGS BY UPWARDS OF A DAY THE EFFECTS OF WHAT MAY
PROVE TO BE QUITE A SIGNIFICANT STORM. THE 12 UTC GFS HAS
NOT COME AROUND TO THIS SOLUTION BUT REGARDLESS YOU CAN
NOT GET MUCH OF A STRONGER SIGNAL TO CHANGE THE GFS
THAN INDICATED ABOVE...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THAT
ORGANIZED SRN STREAM SPLIT SYSTEMS HISTORICALLY TEND TO
BE STRONGER/MORE AMPLIFIED THAN THE GFS.

THIS STORM WILL LIKELY PRODUCE WIDESPREAD PCPN INCLUDING
SOME HEAVIER SNOWS ON THE NW PERIPHERY OF THE MAIN
WRAP-BACK PCPN SHIELD NW OF THE MID-LEVEL CLOSED CENTER
AND A PROLONGED THREAT FOR VERY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
AND LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IN A LEAD REGION OF PLAINS
AND E-CENTRAL US THETA-E ADVECTION AND UPPER DIFFLUENCE
AS FUELED BY INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE GULF MOISTURE.


Tue: 989mb elongated over Upper Plains. Plenty of SN northwest of Low producing plenty of "High Plains Driftering":

http://cyclone.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen ... &cu=latest


Wed: 977mb Wis/Minn border. Warmer in Bangor, ME than OKC! Major snow NW/W of Low. Eastern CONUS can you say mega WAA?:

http://cyclone.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen ... &cu=latest

Multi-day widespread opportunity for SVR wx SE/S of this system. Think this will pose significant Supercell/TOR risk in the southern half of the Alley and into TN valley-SE CONUS. Not to overhonk, but a 2 day Outbreak is possible.

And I'm stuck over here...Wahwawawawawawawawawa

Take care folks...this should be the real deal.

Scott

[Stormsfury]

This threat according to the EC, may last several days ... First starting in the Plains, and then eastward. The GFS (as bad as the hiccup is, still shows a lot of QPF in the Carolinas from the 120-180 hr timeframe ... this definitely appears to be a flooding threat involved with this one, with an Upper Great Plains blizzard potential as well.)

This has got to be the storm that HM has alluded to for some time now.

[Stormsfury]

...CENTRAL AND ERN US...

I'LL HOPEFULLY HAVE A BETTER FEEL FOR A PREFERRED MODEL
ONCE THE 12 UTC RUNS COME IN BUT FOR NOW SUFFICE TO SAY
THAT ALTHOUGH ITS PRIMARILY A SHORT RANGE SYSTEM...
EFFECTS OF A PESKY MID-ATLANTIC COASTAL LOW WOULD
SUPPORT LINGERING WET WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION INTO
MON AND COULD THREATEN SERN NEW ENG LATER IN THE DAY.

THE ECMWF...ECMWF AND NCEP ENSEMBLES...UKMET...CANADIAN...
AND NOGAPS ALL SUPPORT A PREFERRED AND MORE
CLOSED/DEEP... CONSOLIDATED...AND LESS PROGRESSIVE MAJOR
STORM TRACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND ERN US NEXT WEEK
THAN DEPICTED BY THE 00 OR 06 UTC GFS. THIS SOLUTION
OFFERS A DRASTIC ADJUSTMENT TO THE GFS...ESPECIALLY FROM
MIDWEEK ON...AND PROLONGS BY UPWARDS OF A DAY BY LATER IN
THE WEEK THE EFFECTS OF WHAT SHOULD BE A VERY SIGNIFICANT
BUT RELATIVELY WARM LATE WINTER/EARLY SPRING STORM. THE
UPCOMING 12 UTC GFS MAY CONTINUE TO TREND MORE TOWARD
THE OTHER MODELS BUT REGARDLESS A STRONG SIGNAL REMAINS
TO ADJUST THE GFS TO OUR PREFERRED SOLUTION...ESPECIALLY
SINCE POTENT SRN STREAM SPLIT SYSTEMS CHARACTERISTICALLY
TEND TO BE MORE AMPLIFIED/LESS PROGRESSIVE THAN THE GFS.

THIS STORM WILL LIKELY PRODUCE WIDESPREAD PCPN INCLUDING
SOME HEAVIER SNOWS ON THE FAR NW PERIPHERY OF THE MAIN
WRAP-BACK PCPN SHIELD WELL NW OF THE MID-LEVEL CLOSED
CENTER AND A PROLONGED THREAT FOR VERY STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IN A LEAD
REGION OF PLAINS AND E-CENTRAL US THETA-E ADVECTION AND
UPPER DIFFLUENCE AS FUELED BY INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE
GULF MOISTURE.

THE LESS PROGRESSIVE ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTION WOULD ALSO
DELAY SUBSEQUENT GFS INDICATED SFC SYSTEM DEVELOPMENT
BY FRI FOR THE SRN HIGH PLAINS UNTIL PERHAPS THE WEEKEND.

SCHICHTEL

[vbhoutex]

THAT LOOKS TO BE A MONSTER STORM TO ME!!!

I joked about a blizzard for next week in another thread. I guess I better get off my duff and check the models !!!! :o :o