Forecast and Analysis for next 10 days

[Allexpert Mike]

*I'm not advertsing,,,I just wanted to let you all know........I'll be posting in both places but all I'm asking is if you want to go to the main page to fill out a box with your e-mail address in it which will be kept private.

This is from the daily newsletter at wxforums.......
to get one everyday just sign up in the box at the main
page where it says NEWSLETTER subscribe. I'll post it occasionally but not everyday,,,,only when big storms are
coming within 3days or so and we have 2-3 other forecasters helping out that are good.

http://www.weatherforums.com

Here it is:

3 STORM SYSTEMS WILL IMPACT THE EAST COAST
WITH IN THE NEXT 10 DAYS, COULD BE SOME SNOW WITH
THE STORM IN THE 8-10 DAY RANGE FOR SOME....

As we head into the next storm we will see more rain and
less snowfall for most areas. What we saw today was overall
a minor event for pretty much everyone with only winter
weather advisory criteria snows for the hardest hit areas.


SEVERE WEATHER DISCUSSION:
Eastern LA, Southern Mississippi, Southern Alabama,
Southern Georgia, Northern Florida, South Carolina.

With a weak wave of low pressure devleoping along the
stalled front it will kick off another round of severe weather
in the Southeast with some isolated tornadeos possible.
The disadvantage is the weak wind fields but since the main
jets are in a split flow pattern theres nothing to kick this front
out so it will stall over the SE bringing some more storms tomorrow as some areas felt the impact of severe wx today
with this front. There will be a nice upr level diffluence with
nice speed convergence in the lower levels-surface. Strong upward vertical velocities and nice PVA will help cause the
rising air to create the strong UVV and all I can say is WATCH OUT from Panhandle of Florida through Central-Southern GA
into South Carolina. Strong instibality with lift indicies in the -4 to -7 range along with RH 90+% over much of the threaten
area and it looks liek the clouds will stay in place all day not allowing for the sun to peak out and create more instibality
which would've led to a bigger threat. Strong shear values
with most of the area looking at shear values of 200-350m^2/s^2 which will increase to 300-450m^2/s^2 and
some places particularly in South Carolina could see shear
values between 500-700 m^2/s^2 and this area looks to be under the gun with all the elements in place. CAPE values
won't be much of an ingredient in this severe wx, however
some areas in Southern Georgia, Southern Alabama, and the Panhandle of Florida could see CAPE values between 1000-1500j/kg which still isn't a big deal. For those areas mentioned above watch out for damaging winds, large hail, torrential downpours, and some isolated tornadoes. In my opinion the biggest threat area is from SC down to Central to Southern
GA and into Northern FL. So everyone in the areas keep an
eye to the sky tomorrow and be prepared for the threat of severe wx.


As the sfc wave along the front moves offshore it will slide
north slightly bringing some nice rains to areas in Eastern
North Carolina and Eastern Virginia with nice Atlantic advection and warm air advection with nice isentropic lift leading to
some nice precipitation and perhaps severe wx??? for areas
in E. NC and VA. The precipitation shield will extend back
past NC and head into the PA/NJ area with DCA-PHL picking
up some light rains. Once again the heaviest and severe threat will be from Eastern Virginia down to Eastern North Carolina
with nice PVA and low level speed convergence leading to rising air creating strong UVV's along with a pressure gradient
setting up with a HP offshore and with our sfc feature which
will throw in some windy conditions to Eastern NC up to Eastern Virginia and into Southern Delaware. And as this heads out of here another system is waiting patiently to come in.

MID-LATE WEEK STORM SYSTEM

As the Pacific trough continues to deepen with storng jet
streak on the west side of the trough,,,,this will allow for a
more southerly track of the system as it will ride the southern stream and then phase with the northern stream vort and as
it does so it will allow for the trough to take a neg. tilt phasing the streams and taking an inland track and this could spell "SEVERE WX" for the SE and perhaps up into the
major cities. And just by looking at some of the upper level
plots as the streams phase it will cause nice jet diffluence and vertical shear and as the cold fornt passes by associated with
our big storm moving inland through the midwest it may forsm
a sfc wave along the front enhancing precip for the Northeast depending on where it forms. I don''t want to get into it but
with strong ridging exiting out and trough moving in there will
be some impressive WAA with strong isentropic lifting and GOM advection and there will be a very strong and wide line of thunderstorms and hvy rain that will bring quite a show to the Eastern States come mid-late week. Right now looks like a
Rainy, windy, and severe midweek for the Eastern States. As
the storm pulls away with the cold front nice CAA behind it will usher in cold air and perfect timing as another southern stream storm system comes in.


LATE NEXT WEEK-WEEKEND

Right now the details are a little sketchy but there will be a
storm system coming through the track looks to be (imo) between one of the two. Given the pattern I believe another
one for the Midwest with an inland runner,,,,however I do
have my eye on a track that could bring more snow to New England and some spots in the Northeast. Will cover this
in tomorrows issue of the Newsletter a litttle bit more.

[JQ Public]

Great analysis Mike. Of course it will be more detailed as we get closer to the events.

[Allexpert Mike]

Thanks JQpublic,

Well I guess it is common sense that it will be more detailed as it gets closer,,,lol I better come out with another line.