The FAT LADY needs to SING!

[azsnowman]

OK, what GIVES here, I've been in the 60's and low 70's for almost 2 weeks now, it's TIME for the fat lady to sing folks!

NORTHERN ARIZONA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
230 PM MST THU MAR 13 2003

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE STATE WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN
FRIDAY...WITH BREEZY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS DEVELOPING INTO
SATURDAY. A STRONG PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS
AND COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION BY SATURDAY NIGHT...ALONG WITH
A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW. THE CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.

.DISCUSSION...RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE EAST OF THE STATE TONIGHT AS HGHT
FALLS AND POWERFUL JET BEGIN TO IMPINGE UPON THE WEST COAST AS EARLY
AS FRIDAY MORNING. THIS IS IN ADVANCE OF THE WELL-ADVERTISED STORM
SYSTEM DUE IN ARIZONA BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL ALSO INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS STORM...REACHING BREEZY TO LOCALLY
WINDY STATUS FRIDAY...AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SYSTEMS BAROCLINIC BAND WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST FROM THE
KAIBAB PLATEAU TO THE WHITE MOUNTAINS FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SYNOPTIC FORCING WITH THE STORM AS NOT ALL THAT
IMPRESSIVE...FLOW IS MOSTLY ZONAL WITHOUT MUCH CURVATURE...AND THE
JET DOES NOT PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT. LAPSE RATES
BORDER ON STABLE AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY. THEREFORE...THE
DOMINANT FORCING WILL BE TERRAIN FEATURES...AND POPS/QPF VALUES HAVE
BEEN ADJUSTED TO FAVOR THESE AREAS. SNOW LEVELS WILL START ABOVE
8000 FEET AT FIRST...BUT WILL FALL PAST 7000 EARLY SUNDAY...AND WILL
REACH 5000 FEET OR LOWER BY SUNDAY NIGHT. A SECONDARY DISTURBANCE
WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT...AND WILL HAVE A COLD AND
SATURATED AIRMASS TO WORK WITH. EXPECT THIS WILL BE A MORE EFFICIENT
SNOW MAKER FOR THE HIGH COUNTRY. ACTIVITY WILL BECOME MORE SHOWERY
MONDAY...WITH S/WV RIDGING SHUTTING DOWN ANY RESIDUAL SHOWERS BY
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER FAST-MOVING PACIFIC TROUGH WILL BRING
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS BACK TO NORTHERN ARIZONA BY THURSDAY. WILL BE
ISSUING AN SPS WITH THE PACKAGE THIS AFTERNOON.

[isobar]

With all those warm temps, do you still have any snow cover from the last bomb?

[azsnowman]

Sadly isobar, it's all but GONE! We still have over 2 feet in the shaded areas but that's it. Now up high, there's still WELL over 125"......the streams are running bank to bank, that's a GOOD thing, it's filling up reserviors that have been dry for over 3 years!

Dennis

[vbhoutex]

Sadly isobar, it's all but GONE! We still have over 2 feet in the shaded areas but that's it. Now up high, there's still WELL over 125"......the streams are running bank to bank, that's a GOOD thing, it's filling up reserviors that have been dry for over 3 years!

Dennis

It is GREAT to hear that some of the reservoirs are now recieving water!!! Will it bee enough to help a lot?

[chadtm80]

I agree az.. been in the 80's for weeks here now

Sing it fat lady...

[JQ Public]

Glad to hear. There's gonna be another system that will bring moisture to the whole area right? I hope your spring is bountiful up there for once

[ohiostorm]

Glad to hear they are filling up. Watch out though, that snow up high could melt fast and cause flooding.