STORM2K

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0240
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1255 PM CST THU MAR 13 2003

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN TN...WRN NC...VA...ERN WV...WRN MD

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL

VALID 131855Z - 132100Z

A WATCH ISSUANCE IS BEING CONSIDERED FOR PORTIONS OF THESE AREAS
IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

RECENT VIS IMAGERY INDICATES SHALLOW TOPPED CONVECTION
INSTIGATING TO THE EAST OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AMIDST A
DESTABILIZING AIRMASS IN MUCH OF VA...ERN WV...INTO MD. ERE CENT
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A SFC LOW IN WRN VA WITH A PRESSURE FALL
CENTER IN MUCH OF CNTRL VA. SURFACE TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE
MID 70S/LOW 80S WITH DEWPOINTS FROM THE LOW 50S TO LOW
60S...SFCOA FIELDS SHOW MUCAPE VALUES FROM 500-1000 J/KG. THE
BOUNDARY LAYER AIRMASS IN THIS REGION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
DESTABILIZE AS INCREASING MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM SC/NC IS
EXPECTED THRU THE AFTERNOON HOURS. GIVEN PROXIMITY OF ENTRANCE
REGION TO MID-UPPER LVL SPEED MAXIMUM...EXPECTED INCREASING
MOISTURE ADVECTION...ADDITIONAL INSOLATION...AND FCST 0-6KM WINDS
FROM 45-55 KTS...SOME ORGANIZED CONVECTION IS LIKELY IN THE NEXT
FEW HOURS.

..NADEN.. 03/13/2003


ATTN...WFO...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RAH...RNK...PBZ...RLX...CAE...GSP...MRX...JKL...FFC...

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0245
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0504 PM CST THU MAR 13 2003

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN MD...ERN VA AND NRN NC

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 43...

VALID 132304Z - 140030Z

FAIRLY POTENT MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO MIGRATE EWD
ACROSS THE CNTRL APPALACHIAN MOUNTAIN REGION ATTM PER VAPOR
IMAGERY. LINE OF TSTMS HAS REINTENSIFIED JUST EAST OF THE CREST
OF THE MOUNTAINS ACROSS CNTRL VA WITH A FEW WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS
OF 40 KTS. TSTMS ARE MOVING INTO A SLIGHTLY MORE UNSTABLE AIR
MASS WITH MLCAPES AROUND 500 J/KG AND SURFACE DEW POINT
DEPRESSIONS AROUND 20F. IT IS CONCEIVABLE THAT A FEW DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS MAY OCCUR AS THE STORMS MOVE TOWARD THE COAST.
HOWEVER...UNLESS TSTMS INCREASE GREATLY IN INTENSITY...A NEW WW
IS NOT ANTICIPATED.