STORM2K

TORNADO WATCH
AREAL OUTLINE FOR TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 40
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1010 AM EST THU MAR 13 2003

TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 40 IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 PM EST.

IN FLORIDA
THIS WATCH INCLUDES 11 COUNTIES

FLC003-019-031-035-089-107-109-132100-

IN NORTHEAST FLORIDA THIS WATCH INCLUDES 7 COUNTIES...
BAKER CLAY DUVAL FLAGLER
NASSAU PUTNAM ST. JOHNS

$$



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-132100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1045 AM EST THU MAR 13 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...
...TORNADO WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM FOR MOST OF SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA AND NORTHEAST FLORIDA...
...RIVER FLOODING CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA...

A STRONG SQUALL LINE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST NORTHEAST THROUGH
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND NORTHEAST FLORIDA TODAY. THE STORMS IN THE
SQUALL LINE ARE REACHING SEVERE LIMITS PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...
DAMAGING WINDS AND THE POSSIBILITY OF TORNADOES ALSO EXISTS.

AREA RIVERS WILL CONTINUE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE TODAY AND TONIGHT. PLEASE
REFER TO THE LATEST RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS AND STATEMENTS FOR MORE
INFORMATION.

More added to the watch:

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 40
AFWA-OFFUTT AFB IN SPC BACKUP CAPACITY-OMAHA NEB
955 AM EST THU MAR 13 2003

AFWA-OFFUTT AFB-OMAHA NEB AS THE SPC BACKUP HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

NORTHEAST FLORIDA
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA
COASTAL WATERS

EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 955 AM UNTIL 400
PM EST.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS
TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS ALONG AND 75 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST
OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF GAINESVILLE FLORIDA TO
50 MILES NORTHEAST OF SAVANNAH GEORGIA.

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.
PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS.


DISCUSSION...LINE OF SEVERE CONVECTION DEVELOPING EWD INTO AREA OF
STRONG INSTABILITY. POSSIBLE MESOLOW WEST OF AYS MOVING ENEWD MAY
INCREASE TORNADO THREAT. MAIN THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS.


AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND
GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550.
MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25025.

Some nasty storms across Ga an Florida. Heads up people!

Part of that watch also covers Southern SC as well ...

Nasty thunderstorms now beginning to develop back in SE GA, which will head NE during the day today.

Be careful you guys/gals in the watch area!!

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0235
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0839 AM CST THU MAR 13 2003

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN GA SWD INTO CNTRL FL

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL

VALID 131439Z - 131645Z

THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL EXISTS WITH TSTMS OVER SRN GA WITH
MORE OF A WIND THREAT FARTHER S INTO THE FL PENINSULA. WW MAY BE
REQUIRED.

REGIONAL RADAR DATA SHOWS TSTMS INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY FROM SRN GA SWD INTO THE ERN FL PNHDL. 12Z SOUNDINGS
FROM TLH AND JAX INDICATE THAT MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY IS SLIGHTLY
ELEVATED WITH MUCAPES OF 1500-2500 J/KG. AREAL COVERAGE OF TSTMS
IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING AS FORCING FOR LARGE
SCALE ASCENT INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER SRN AL/WRN FL PNHDL. 40-50 KT WLY
500 MB WINDS SHOULD RESULT IN SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR FOR
ORGANIZED TSTMS. LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT ACROSS
SRN/ERN GA INTO FAR NRN FL.

FURTHER S...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MORE SURFACE-BASED TSTM
ACTIVITY. LATEST MESOANALYSIS INDICATES A WEAK E-W FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STRETCHED ACROSS THE NRN PENINSULA. LINE OF TSTMS
CURRENTLY BUILDING SWD ACROSS THE ERN PNHDL SHOULD CONTINUE TO
BUILD SWD...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR WIND DAMAGE TO THE S OF THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY. WW WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED SHORTLY.