STORM2K

The storms prediction center in Norma, OK has issued a tornado watch for parts of southeast Georgia, northern Florida, and parts of South Carolina in effect this Friday afternoon and evening from 2:15 PM EST until 7:00 PM EST.

Tornadoes, hail to 1 inch in diameter, thunderstorm wind gusts to 70 mph, and dangerous lightning are possible in and near this tornado watch. A tornado watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes in and near the watch area. Persons in these areas could be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings.

The graphic is here
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0009.html

Jim

from NWS Jax HWO
.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

...TORNADO WATCH NUMBER NINE IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST FOR ALL OF
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND A PORTION OF INLAND NORTH FLORIDA...

...A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

TORNADO WATCH NUMBER NINE IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES...

IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...
APPLING...ATKINSON...BACON...BRANTLEY...CAMDEN...CHARLTON...
CLINCH...COFFEE...ECHOLS...GLYNN...JEFF DAVIS...PIERCE...
WARE AND WAYNE COUNTIES.

IN NORTHEAST FLORIDA...
BAKER...COLUMBIA...GILCHRIST...HAMILTON AND SUWANNEE COUNTIES.

THE MAIN THREAT FROM THESE STORM WILL BE STRONG...DAMAGING WINDS.
ISOLATED TORNADOES AND SOME LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL.
THE SQUALL LINE WILL ADVANCE ACROSS THE WATCH AREA TO THE EAST AT
ABOUT 20 TO 25 MPH.

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REMAINDER
OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. A FEW OF THESE
STORMS COULD REACH SEVERE LIMITS. THE MAIN THREAT FROM THESE STORMS
WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF INTO THE
COASTAL ATLANTIC BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

Storms look promising...

I'm a little ominous about constantly being told that the squall line is really going to fizzle. That sucker's mean lookin

I wonder if they'll extend the tornado watch further southward

Tornado threat Increases this Evening....
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0101
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0323 PM CST FRI FEB 06 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN FL...SERN GA...SRN/CNTRL SC

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 9...

VALID 062123Z - 062330Z

ISOLD TORNADO THREAT MAY BE GRADUALLY INCREASING ACROSS A SMALL
GEOGRAPHIC REGION FROM NRN FL/SERN GA INTO SRN/ERN SC LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. A NEW TORNADO WATCH...COVERING PORTIONS OF ERN SC/EXTREME
SERN NC AND THE COASTAL WATERS...MAY BE REQUIRED WITHIN AN HOUR OR
SO.

NARROW THETA-E RIDGE HAS APPEARED IN SURFACE OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS
FIELDS FROM NERN FL NEWD ACROSS SERN GA...AND INTO SRN SC.
MEANWHILE...A BROAD BAND OF DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A
PREFRONTAL SQUALL LINE CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST AND SLOWLY STRENGTHEN
AS THIS HIGHER THETA-E AIRMASS IS INGESTED. A FEW PERSISTENT
MESOLOWS WITH SPORADIC STRONG CIRCULATIONS HAVE BEEN NOTED WITHIN
THE BROAD CONVECTIVE BAND OVER THE PAST 2 HOURS. ONE OF THESE
LONG-LIVED FEATURES WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A BRIEF TORNADO EARLIER
TODAY OVER THE FL PNHDL. ALTHOUGH SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY REMAINS
QUITE MARGINAL...SHEAR AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT DAMAGING WIND/ISOLD TORNADO POTENTIAL INTO EARLY EVENING.
THIS POTENTIAL MAY SPREAD INTO ERN SC...AND PERHAPS EXTREME SERN NC
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND A NEW WATCH COVERING THESE AREAS MAY BE
NEEDED.

There's the latest Jacksonville, FL radar. Sure does look pretty strong...

Ya know--looks a lot more broken up and weaker(to me anyway)---from when the line went through the Tallahassee area---- However, the spc has said they are likely to issue a new watch and u dont necessaril have to have super strong cells to get rotation---Kinda sux though as it looks like the storms are weakenning (as usual) as they approach my area.

The line of showers and thunderstorms has shown signs of weakening, but it does appear to be holding it own despite the general weakening trend.

Orlando's high temperature today was 85°F, breaking the record for the day and Melbourne, FL reached 85°F, which ties the record for February 6th.

The temperature is currently 77°F here with a dewpoint temperature of 64°F.

Update from SPC

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0102
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0530 PM CST FRI FEB 06 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN FL AND SERN GA

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 9...

VALID 062330Z - 070100Z

LINE OF TSTMS CONTINUES TO MOVE EWD THROUGH NRN FL AND EXTREME SERN
GA ATTM. VWP FROM KJAX CONTINUES TO SHOW SSWLY UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW
REGIME THAT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SMALL SCALE BOWS WITHIN THE LINE
THAT MAY GIVE WIND DAMAGE OR A BRIEF ISOLD TORNADO. WT 9 MAY BE
REPLACED WITH A SMALLER WW BY 00 UTC FOR PARTS OF NRN FL.

OK-this makes no sense---The spc issues a statement saying they are gonna issue a new tornado watch....then 30 min later NWS Jax comes and says ww9 was cancelled. But no watch was issued---Whats up with that--did things change that much within 30 minutes? Getting very gusty here BTW

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
700 PM EST FRI FEB 6 2004

FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-071100-
ALACHUA-APPLING-ATKINSON-BACON-BAKER-BRADFORD-BRANTLEY-
CAMDEN (COASTAL)-CAMDEN (INLAND)-CHARLTON-CLAY-CLINCH-COFFEE-
COLUMBIA-DUVAL-ECHOLS-FLAGLER-GILCHRIST-GLYNN (COASTAL)-
GLYNN (INLAND)-HAMILTON-JEFF DAVIS-MARION-NASSAU-PIERCE-PUTNAM-
ST JOHNS-SUWANNEE-UNION-WARE-WAYNE-
700 PM EST FRI FEB 6 2004

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...

...TORNADO WATCH NUMBER NINE HAS BEEN CANCELLED...

...A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING FOR EASTERN
PARTS OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND NORTHEAST FLORIDA...

A SQUALL LINE WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS
ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...NORTHEAST FLORIDA...AND THE ADJACENT
COASTAL WATERS THIS EVENING. THE MAIN HAZARDS FROM THESE STORMS WILL
BE STRONG DAMAGING WINDS. ISOLATED TORNADOES AND WATERSPOUTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS WELL. THE SQUALL LINE WILL ADVANCE EASTWARD ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AROUND 20 TO 25 MPH. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
OFFSHORE OF THE ATLANTIC COAST AROUND 8 PM...AND CONTINUE TO MOVE
INTO THE OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
.

Tornado Watch #9 was allowed to expire ...

However, Tornado Watch No. 10 was issued for Eastern SC and NC until 11 pm EST ...



http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0010.html

This is true--but I was referring to this bit in the meso disc--at 630 ET...just before #9 expired... It sounded like maybe they were thinking about issueing a new one--and decided not to--i dunno

WT 9 MAY BE
REPLACED WITH A SMALLER WW BY 00 UTC FOR PARTS OF NRN FL.