Chance of Showers in Southern California?

[Rockstock]

NWS San Diego says No precip, and so does Los Angeles. Cold air is still aloft, and the jet is streaking above at 100knots. vort max is still a bit high, however lacking surface dewpoint and favorable winds. But I went ahead and did the Math on it. Here is what I came up with. At this very time, there are cumulus clouds developing pretty tall around my area, and to my North and South, and even West.

FORECAST IS 0Z Thursday or 4pm Today.

Dewpoint Forecast shows a dewpoint at 40= 0%
Surface Temperature will be at 60 degrees= 20%
Low Level Jet inflow at 850mb will be at 40 knots= 0%
Surface Moisture Carrying Wind= 0%
700MB Dry Air Carrying wind= 0%
Upper Level Jet Stream will be blowing at 100 knots= 50%
500MB vort values= 40%

Probability of Severe Thunderstorms is 16%
So with that 16% it corresponds with my charts on........

No Severe Thunderstorm Risk
NO ALERT
BLUE ALERT
GREEN ALERT
YELLOW ALERT
ORANGE ALERT
RED ALERT
PINK ALERT

Color of Shading on the Weather Channel Map.
NO COLOR DISPLAYED(NONE)
WEAK THUNDERSTORMS(ORANGE)
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS(ORANGE)
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS(RED)

Thunderstorm probability is 10%
no Thunderstorms expected.
Very Slight Chance if even that.
Slight Chance
Chance
Possible
Likely
Run For the Hills


CAPE=0%

HELICITY=0-25 NO TORNADOES POSSIBLE!
HIGHEST VALUES: NONE EXPECTED

Hail values.

75%
0%
0%
50%
0%

added together is 125 or...

1/4 inch hail size expected.

With that I could say there is a chance of showers later today with a VERY SLIGHT IF THAT chance of a Thunderstorm. Satellite imagery showing cumulus clouds developing around the area. Daytime heating could cause some instability for showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms. No helicity present enough for any Tornadic activity.CAPE is near 0, so that's not even a play. with that. most we can get is a shower, and maybe a thunderstorm, though im not going to play that card down..just a slight chance for that. Let's see If I beat the NWS for activity here today when they have it none.

Kevin Martin