SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FOR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA! MATH
Posted: Mon Feb 02, 2004 10:04 am
Good Morning, Newly developed Atmospheric Math by Me will prove ultimate today till tuesday. Using the Math, I develop percentage forecasts, and then I have charts that match them... I predicted the November 12, 2003 Los Angeles Event using this exact math, and it was over 1 week before it happend! I did this for Southern California where I live and here are the results and my forecasts! Tell me what ya think?!
If I was in the NWS or SPC, I would issue a TORNADO WATCH, and SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR THIS PERIOD.
Dewpoint Forecast shows a dewpoint at 46= 25%
Surface Temperature will be at 55 degrees= 0%
Low Level Jet inflow at 850mb will be at 25-30 knots= 25%
Surface Moisture Carrying Wind= 100%
700MB Dry Air Carrying wind= 100%
Upper Level Jet Stream will be blowing at 100 knots= 50%
500MB vort values = 60%
Probability of Severe Thunderstorms is 51%
So with that 51% it corresponds with my charts on........
Moderate Severe Thunderstorm Risk
On a weather map, it would be SEVERE red shading.
Thunderstorm probability is 50%
CAPE=0%
HELICITY=100-150 Weak TORNADOES are possible!!
Hail values.
100%
100%
0%
50%
0%
added together is 250 or...
3/4 inch hail size expected or SEVERE THRESHOLD.
Monday night- A very strong Cold front will move quickly across Southern California brining Heavy Rains, and embedded Thunderstorms. There is a chance for Severe Thunderstorms with this cold front. These storm will be in a 100-150 helicity Environment throughout the night so WEAK tornoades are possible!! Hail could accompany these storms. Also another thing to point out will be the possibility of a Bow Echo Line of Thunderstorms. What a Bow Echo line of Thunderstorms is, is Very Damanging winds to near 70mph or MORE, and possible tornadoes.As far as how sure I am. I am positive this will happen.
STORM MOVEMENT WILL BE FAST DUE TO COLD FRONT. UNSURE HOW FAST BECAUSE THE FRONT SPEED.
SURFACE TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE TO 40,000 FEET WILL BE 90 DEGREES! THAT IS FOR WARMER AIR TO JUST KEEP ON RISING. THE BIGGER THE DIFFERENCE, THE MORE INTENSE THE THUNDERSTORMS.
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Tuesday Morning- Afternoon. MAJOR DYNAMICS MOVE IN! Tuesday morning from sunrise to high noon should be the biggest day for Severe Thunderstorms. The Jet Stream Dynamics will move in the strongest, the cold air aloft at 500MB will be as high at -28 C! We will have a 25-28 Value 500MB Vort as well. Thunderstorms developing might rotate as well. For any Thunderstorm that develops in this period will be a Hail Producer. Hail can be 3/4 inch in diameter. Believing that Orange County Coasts will be hit the Hardest, and a possible Waterspouts. Orthographic Dynamics in the Inland Empire, Including Western Riverside County, Southeastern Orange County, and Southwestern San Bernardino County might get a funnel cloud, and possible Tornado. The risk lowers as you Travel away from the Beaches. But doesn't lower till after Riverside. Also Any Storms that develop have the potential of being long lasting Severe Thunderstorms due to good inflow.
STORM MOVEMENT WILL BE 40-45 MPH FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
SURFACE TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE TO 40,000 FEET WILL BE 95-100 DEGREES!
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Tueasday evening- Showers and Thunderstorms will clear out from West to East, leaving a nice crisp cool night Tuesday.
LINGERING SHOWERS ANF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOVING 60MPH FROM NORTH-NOTHWEST TO SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE AFTER THIS SYSTEM!
Kevin Martin
PS, I do forecasts with my Math all over he United States, so if an event comes up you would like to know about near you for potential using this incredible Math, I will do that for you, and produce a forecast like the one I did above.
If I was in the NWS or SPC, I would issue a TORNADO WATCH, and SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR THIS PERIOD.
Dewpoint Forecast shows a dewpoint at 46= 25%
Surface Temperature will be at 55 degrees= 0%
Low Level Jet inflow at 850mb will be at 25-30 knots= 25%
Surface Moisture Carrying Wind= 100%
700MB Dry Air Carrying wind= 100%
Upper Level Jet Stream will be blowing at 100 knots= 50%
500MB vort values = 60%
Probability of Severe Thunderstorms is 51%
So with that 51% it corresponds with my charts on........
Moderate Severe Thunderstorm Risk
On a weather map, it would be SEVERE red shading.
Thunderstorm probability is 50%
CAPE=0%
HELICITY=100-150 Weak TORNADOES are possible!!
Hail values.
100%
100%
0%
50%
0%
added together is 250 or...
3/4 inch hail size expected or SEVERE THRESHOLD.
Monday night- A very strong Cold front will move quickly across Southern California brining Heavy Rains, and embedded Thunderstorms. There is a chance for Severe Thunderstorms with this cold front. These storm will be in a 100-150 helicity Environment throughout the night so WEAK tornoades are possible!! Hail could accompany these storms. Also another thing to point out will be the possibility of a Bow Echo Line of Thunderstorms. What a Bow Echo line of Thunderstorms is, is Very Damanging winds to near 70mph or MORE, and possible tornadoes.As far as how sure I am. I am positive this will happen.
STORM MOVEMENT WILL BE FAST DUE TO COLD FRONT. UNSURE HOW FAST BECAUSE THE FRONT SPEED.
SURFACE TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE TO 40,000 FEET WILL BE 90 DEGREES! THAT IS FOR WARMER AIR TO JUST KEEP ON RISING. THE BIGGER THE DIFFERENCE, THE MORE INTENSE THE THUNDERSTORMS.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Tuesday Morning- Afternoon. MAJOR DYNAMICS MOVE IN! Tuesday morning from sunrise to high noon should be the biggest day for Severe Thunderstorms. The Jet Stream Dynamics will move in the strongest, the cold air aloft at 500MB will be as high at -28 C! We will have a 25-28 Value 500MB Vort as well. Thunderstorms developing might rotate as well. For any Thunderstorm that develops in this period will be a Hail Producer. Hail can be 3/4 inch in diameter. Believing that Orange County Coasts will be hit the Hardest, and a possible Waterspouts. Orthographic Dynamics in the Inland Empire, Including Western Riverside County, Southeastern Orange County, and Southwestern San Bernardino County might get a funnel cloud, and possible Tornado. The risk lowers as you Travel away from the Beaches. But doesn't lower till after Riverside. Also Any Storms that develop have the potential of being long lasting Severe Thunderstorms due to good inflow.
STORM MOVEMENT WILL BE 40-45 MPH FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
SURFACE TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE TO 40,000 FEET WILL BE 95-100 DEGREES!
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Tueasday evening- Showers and Thunderstorms will clear out from West to East, leaving a nice crisp cool night Tuesday.
LINGERING SHOWERS ANF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOVING 60MPH FROM NORTH-NOTHWEST TO SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE AFTER THIS SYSTEM!
Kevin Martin
PS, I do forecasts with my Math all over he United States, so if an event comes up you would like to know about near you for potential using this incredible Math, I will do that for you, and produce a forecast like the one I did above.
