SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FOR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA! MATH

[Rockstock]

Good Morning, Newly developed Atmospheric Math by Me will prove ultimate today till tuesday. Using the Math, I develop percentage forecasts, and then I have charts that match them... I predicted the November 12, 2003 Los Angeles Event using this exact math, and it was over 1 week before it happend! I did this for Southern California where I live and here are the results and my forecasts! Tell me what ya think?!

If I was in the NWS or SPC, I would issue a TORNADO WATCH, and SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR THIS PERIOD.

Dewpoint Forecast shows a dewpoint at 46= 25%
Surface Temperature will be at 55 degrees= 0%
Low Level Jet inflow at 850mb will be at 25-30 knots= 25%
Surface Moisture Carrying Wind= 100%
700MB Dry Air Carrying wind= 100%
Upper Level Jet Stream will be blowing at 100 knots= 50%
500MB vort values = 60%

Probability of Severe Thunderstorms is 51%
So with that 51% it corresponds with my charts on........

Moderate Severe Thunderstorm Risk
On a weather map, it would be SEVERE red shading.
Thunderstorm probability is 50%

CAPE=0%

HELICITY=100-150 Weak TORNADOES are possible!!

Hail values.

100%
100%
0%
50%
0%

added together is 250 or...

3/4 inch hail size expected or SEVERE THRESHOLD.

Monday night- A very strong Cold front will move quickly across Southern California brining Heavy Rains, and embedded Thunderstorms. There is a chance for Severe Thunderstorms with this cold front. These storm will be in a 100-150 helicity Environment throughout the night so WEAK tornoades are possible!! Hail could accompany these storms. Also another thing to point out will be the possibility of a Bow Echo Line of Thunderstorms. What a Bow Echo line of Thunderstorms is, is Very Damanging winds to near 70mph or MORE, and possible tornadoes.As far as how sure I am. I am positive this will happen.

STORM MOVEMENT WILL BE FAST DUE TO COLD FRONT. UNSURE HOW FAST BECAUSE THE FRONT SPEED.

SURFACE TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE TO 40,000 FEET WILL BE 90 DEGREES! THAT IS FOR WARMER AIR TO JUST KEEP ON RISING. THE BIGGER THE DIFFERENCE, THE MORE INTENSE THE THUNDERSTORMS.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Tuesday Morning- Afternoon. MAJOR DYNAMICS MOVE IN! Tuesday morning from sunrise to high noon should be the biggest day for Severe Thunderstorms. The Jet Stream Dynamics will move in the strongest, the cold air aloft at 500MB will be as high at -28 C! We will have a 25-28 Value 500MB Vort as well. Thunderstorms developing might rotate as well. For any Thunderstorm that develops in this period will be a Hail Producer. Hail can be 3/4 inch in diameter. Believing that Orange County Coasts will be hit the Hardest, and a possible Waterspouts. Orthographic Dynamics in the Inland Empire, Including Western Riverside County, Southeastern Orange County, and Southwestern San Bernardino County might get a funnel cloud, and possible Tornado. The risk lowers as you Travel away from the Beaches. But doesn't lower till after Riverside. Also Any Storms that develop have the potential of being long lasting Severe Thunderstorms due to good inflow.

STORM MOVEMENT WILL BE 40-45 MPH FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST

SURFACE TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE TO 40,000 FEET WILL BE 95-100 DEGREES!
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Tueasday evening- Showers and Thunderstorms will clear out from West to East, leaving a nice crisp cool night Tuesday.

LINGERING SHOWERS ANF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOVING 60MPH FROM NORTH-NOTHWEST TO SOUTH-SOUTHEAST

STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE AFTER THIS SYSTEM!

Kevin Martin

PS, I do forecasts with my Math all over he United States, so if an event comes up you would like to know about near you for potential using this incredible Math, I will do that for you, and produce a forecast like the one I did above.

[JCT777]

Wow, that was very interesting. Thanks!

[weatherlover427]

It has begun to rain here in Huntington Beach, so far it is light to at times moderate ... more updates to follow throughout the night.

[weatherlover427]

Holy mama! You should have seen the rain here like an hour ago! It seemed like Florida heavy rain! :o

So far we are just under 3/4" of an inch at my location, I would not be surprised if we near an inch by the time it's all over. :o

[ColdFront77]

Sure is impressive for southern California standards:

[weatherlover427]

There is a severe thunderstorm warning out on that line. Winds of up to 60 MPH, hail, and very heavy rain likely in the greater San Diego area right now.

[Rockstock]

Well, my Monday Night Forecast pretty much went exactly how I said.

It rained heavy.
Thunderstorms were embedded.
A Bow echo came through.
A Severe Thunderstorm Warning was issued.
Pretty good!

Monday night- A very strong Cold front will move quickly across Southern California brining Heavy Rains, and embedded Thunderstorms. There is a chance for Severe Thunderstorms with this cold front. These storm will be in a 100-150 helicity Environment throughout the night so WEAK tornoades are possible!! Hail could accompany these storms. Also another thing to point out will be the possibility of a Bow Echo Line of Thunderstorms. What a Bow Echo line of Thunderstorms is, is Very Damanging winds to near 70mph or MORE, and possible tornadoes.As far as how sure I am. I am positive this will happen.


Kevin Martin

[weatherlover427]

Rain is over for now, BUT there are more echoes near Santa Barbara ... could these be the storms they were talking about? Stay tuned!

[ColdFront77]

Here are the two warnings that were in effect issued from the San Diego. CA National Weather Service office.....


BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
1130 PM PST MON FEB 2 2004


THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN DIEGO HAS ISSUED A


* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SAN DIEGO COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...SPRING VALLEY...SANTEE...SAN DIEGO...
POWAY...NATIONAL CITY...LEMON GROVE...LAKESIDE...LA MESA...IMPERIAL
BEACH...ESCONDIDO...EL CAJON...CORONADO...CHULA VISTA


* UNTIL 1215 AM PST


* AT 1130 PM PST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS TO 60 MPH FROM
PALOMAR MOUNTAIN TO POWAY TO THE CITY OF SAN DIEGO. THESE STORMS
ARE MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH AND WILL AFFECT THE SOUTH
COAST...VALLEYS...MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS BETWEEN 1130 PM AND 1215
AM. FLASH FLOODING WILL ALSO OCCUR...AND SMALL HAIL WILL BE
POSSIBLE.


IF SEVERE WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...GO INSIDE A STURDY SHELTER
AWAY FROM CREEK BEDS AND OTHER FLOOD-PRONE AREAS. REMEMBER...A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM CAN PRODUCE LARGE DAMAGING HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 55 MPH...DEADLY LIGHTNING...AND VERY HEAVY RAIN.


REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY. THEY
WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST
OFFICE IN SAN DIEGO.


$$


LAT...LON 3341 11704 3247 11739 3260 11610 3341 11606


MAXWELL



BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
1130 PM PST MON FEB 2 2004


THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN DIEGO HAS ISSUED A


* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SAN DIEGO COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...SPRING VALLEY...SANTEE...SAN DIEGO...
POWAY...NATIONAL CITY...LEMON GROVE...LAKESIDE...LA MESA...IMPERIAL
BEACH...ESCONDIDO...EL CAJON...CORONADO...CHULA VISTA


* UNTIL 1215 AM PST


* AT 1130 PM PST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS TO 60 MPH FROM
PALOMAR MOUNTAIN TO POWAY TO THE CITY OF SAN DIEGO. THESE STORMS
ARE MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH AND WILL AFFECT THE SOUTH
COAST...VALLEYS...MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS BETWEEN 1130 PM AND 1215
AM. FLASH FLOODING WILL ALSO OCCUR...AND SMALL HAIL WILL BE
POSSIBLE.


IF SEVERE WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...GO INSIDE A STURDY SHELTER
AWAY FROM CREEK BEDS AND OTHER FLOOD-PRONE AREAS. REMEMBER...A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM CAN PRODUCE LARGE DAMAGING HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 55 MPH...DEADLY LIGHTNING...AND VERY HEAVY RAIN.


REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY. THEY
WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST
OFFICE IN SAN DIEGO.


$$


LAT...LON 3341 11704 3247 11739 3260 11610 3341 11606


MAXWELL

[weatherlover427]

You usually see these in the summer with the monsoon. Even then they are somewhat rae compared to the rest of the country. Truly a strong storm.

[Rockstock]

Yeah just like I predicted with my Math 6 days ago.

Awesome!

Kevin

[Rockstock]

Well it's 10amPST, and the first signs of convection across Southern California have shown up. Looks like popcorn in the sky. here is my forecast for today that I made yesterday morning.

Tuesday Morning- Afternoon. MAJOR DYNAMICS MOVE IN! Tuesday morning from sunrise to high noon should be the biggest day for Severe Thunderstorms. The Jet Stream Dynamics will move in the strongest, the cold air aloft at 500MB will be as high at -28 C! We will have a 25-28 Value 500MB Vort as well. Thunderstorms developing might rotate as well. For any Thunderstorm that develops in this period will be a Hail Producer. Hail can be 3/4 inch in diameter. Believing that Orange County Coasts will be hit the Hardest, and a possible Waterspouts. Orthographic Dynamics in the Inland Empire, Including Western Riverside County, Southeastern Orange County, and Southwestern San Bernardino County might get a funnel cloud, and possible Tornado. The risk lowers as you Travel away from the Beaches. But doesn't lower till after Riverside. Also Any Storms that develop have the potential of being long lasting Severe Thunderstorms due to good inflow.

STORM MOVEMENT WILL BE 40-45 MPH FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST

SURFACE TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE TO 40,000 FEET WILL BE 95-100 DEGREES!

LETS SEE WHAT HAPPENS!! I WAS RIGHT ABOUT MONDAY NIGHT, SO HOPEFULLY ILL BE RIGHT ABOUT THIS!

Kevin Martin