MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0218
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0136 PM CST WED MAR 12 2003
AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL FL
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
VALID 121936Z - 122230Z
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL OR WIND WILL BE POSSIBLE.
ELY LOW LEVEL WINDS OFF THE GULF STREAM COMBINED WITH INCREASING
WESTERLIES ALOFT WILL MAKE FOR STRAIGHT LINE HODOGRAPHS WITH
SPLITTING MULTICELLS LIKELY. MODIFIED OBSERVED AND FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW MLCAPES OF 1500-2000 J/KG WITH COLD TEMPERATURES
AT MID LEVELS SUGGESTING HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST
AND LONGEST LIVED STORMS. ALTHOUGH SHALLOW LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
AND POOR LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL PRECLUDE EXPLOSIVE
DEVELOPMENT...HINTS OF UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION IN UPPER LEVELS
OVER THE NRN GULF AND DEPICTED IN MODEL FIELDS MAY BOOST
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
