EC **HONKING** SVR on 3/17-18

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Scott_inVA
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EC **HONKING** SVR on 3/17-18

#1 Postby Scott_inVA » Tue Mar 11, 2003 11:34 pm

Folks,

EC on board with potential for SVR outbreak next week:

http://cyclone.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc.cgi?re=us&mo=ecmwf&le=850&va=slp&in=2&pl=cf&ft=7day&cu=latest&overlay=no&mo=&le=&va=&in=&pl=ln&ft=&cu=latest

I'm not on the bombogenesis train yet but this looks like the real deal.
Tune up the chase vans. I'm jealous already.

Scott
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#2 Postby Amanzi » Wed Mar 12, 2003 12:07 am

Please keep us updated!!!!!!!
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#3 Postby vbhoutex » Wed Mar 12, 2003 1:19 am

That is one deep low!! Could get interesting!!
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#4 Postby Rob-TheStormChaser » Wed Mar 12, 2003 7:06 am

Could have a nice ripped line with it..we'll see how it comes along in the next days
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#5 Postby Stormsfury » Wed Mar 12, 2003 12:01 pm

Compare the 7 day 500mb Geopotential Heights

With the 3 day average 500mb Geopotential Heights Days 8-10.

Not much movement - and keeps the 500mb cutoff

Day 7
http://cyclone.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen ... &cu=latest

Day 10
http://cyclone.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen ... &cu=latest
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#6 Postby Stormsfury » Wed Mar 12, 2003 12:09 pm

Wind Streamlines at 850 mb (5,000 ft)
http://cyclone.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen ... &cu=latest

Wind Streamlines at 500mb (15,000 ft)
http://cyclone.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen ... &cu=latest

Wind Streamlines at 200mb (Jet Stream Level)
http://cyclone.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen ... &cu=latest

Tremendous Divergence at the RRQ, and convergence at the surface. The EC is definitely SCREAMING MAJOR SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK IN THE GREAT PLAINS NEXT WEEK, INCLUDING SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES POSSIBLE ... STAY TUNED.
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#7 Postby Stormsfury » Wed Mar 12, 2003 12:16 pm

12Z GFS is also onboard today with features as well.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _144.shtml
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#8 Postby wx247 » Wed Mar 12, 2003 2:01 pm

Our local NWS here in SW MO has been talking about potential for severe during this time period for the last couple of days.
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#9 Postby Stormsfury » Wed Mar 12, 2003 8:33 pm

All the models are showing the threat ... ALL of them.
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#10 Postby StormCrazyIowan » Wed Mar 12, 2003 8:41 pm

See, now this is EXACTLY what I need help with, I look at those maps, and I see a MAP! I don't know what any of it means....am I a lost cause?
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#11 Postby HuffWx » Wed Mar 12, 2003 10:36 pm

Nice talk here guys!

Seems to coming, and this pattern is ideal for nice outbreak!

Huff
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#12 Postby Stormsfury » Wed Mar 12, 2003 10:38 pm

Looking more and more conducive and the EURO is consistent with this feature/storm the past couple of days ...

I started another thread with EURO continuing to show the SVR WX Threat.
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