Convective Outlook (Northern and Central Florida)
Posted: Sat Jan 24, 2004 8:51 pm
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0330 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2004
VALID 261200Z - 271200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
BROAD...LARGE SCALE TROUGH EXPECTED TO EVOLVE OVER THE WRN U.S. ON
SUNDAY SHOULD ASSUME A SLIGHT NEGATIVE TILT AS PATTERN REMAINS
PROGRESSIVE AND SYSTEM CONTINUES E ACROSS THE PLAINS/MS VLY ON
MONDAY. APPROACH OF UPPER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED JET ENTRANCE REGION
ALOFT MAY RESULT IN REJUVENATION OF EXISTING CONVECTIVE BAND OVER
THE NERN GULF/N FL AND SRN GA EARLY MONDAY. THE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM
SHOULD ACCELERATE E/SE OFF THE S ATLANTIC CST LATER IN THE DAY AS A
SURFACE WAVE DEEPENS AND MOVES EWD FROM NEAR HATTERAS.
...NRN AND CNTRL FL...
MODEST SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY /500-1000 J/KG/ MAY DEVELOP OVER
CNTRL AND NRN PARTS OF THE FL PENINSULA ON MONDAY IN RESPONSE TO
SURFACE HEATING AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INFLOW AHEAD OF
ACCELERATING CONVECTIVE SYSTEM OVER THE NWRN GULF/S GA. GLANCING
INFLUENCE OF LARGE SCALE...NEGATIVE TILT TROUGH OVER THE MS/OH VLYS
WILL STRENGTHEN MID LEVEL WSWLY WINDS TO AOA 60 KT OVER THE NRN HALF
OF THE STATE...BUT THE MEAN WLY COMPONENT WILL LIKELY LIMIT LARGE
SCALE CONVERGENCE. NEVERTHELESS...PRESENCE OF CONVECTIVE BAND WITH
POSSIBLE EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS...AND LOCALIZED CONVERGENCE/FORWARD
PROPAGATION ALONG ASSOCIATED GUST FRONTAL SEGMENTS...SUGGEST THAT AT
LEAST A LOW PROBABILITY OF SEVERE /LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES/ WILL EXIST OVER PARTS OF FL ON MONDAY. WEAK
LAPSE RATES SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL INTENSITY/COVERAGE OF SEVERE
THREAT...ALTHOUGH A SMALL PART OF FL MAY REQUIRE UPGRADE TO SLIGHT
RISK IN LATER OUTLOOKS. ANY SEVERE STORMS THAT DO FORM SHOULD
DIMINISH AS SURFACE WAVE ACCELERATES E OFF THE NC CST LATER
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT.
..CORFIDI.. 01/24/2004
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0330 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2004
VALID 261200Z - 271200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
BROAD...LARGE SCALE TROUGH EXPECTED TO EVOLVE OVER THE WRN U.S. ON
SUNDAY SHOULD ASSUME A SLIGHT NEGATIVE TILT AS PATTERN REMAINS
PROGRESSIVE AND SYSTEM CONTINUES E ACROSS THE PLAINS/MS VLY ON
MONDAY. APPROACH OF UPPER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED JET ENTRANCE REGION
ALOFT MAY RESULT IN REJUVENATION OF EXISTING CONVECTIVE BAND OVER
THE NERN GULF/N FL AND SRN GA EARLY MONDAY. THE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM
SHOULD ACCELERATE E/SE OFF THE S ATLANTIC CST LATER IN THE DAY AS A
SURFACE WAVE DEEPENS AND MOVES EWD FROM NEAR HATTERAS.
...NRN AND CNTRL FL...
MODEST SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY /500-1000 J/KG/ MAY DEVELOP OVER
CNTRL AND NRN PARTS OF THE FL PENINSULA ON MONDAY IN RESPONSE TO
SURFACE HEATING AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INFLOW AHEAD OF
ACCELERATING CONVECTIVE SYSTEM OVER THE NWRN GULF/S GA. GLANCING
INFLUENCE OF LARGE SCALE...NEGATIVE TILT TROUGH OVER THE MS/OH VLYS
WILL STRENGTHEN MID LEVEL WSWLY WINDS TO AOA 60 KT OVER THE NRN HALF
OF THE STATE...BUT THE MEAN WLY COMPONENT WILL LIKELY LIMIT LARGE
SCALE CONVERGENCE. NEVERTHELESS...PRESENCE OF CONVECTIVE BAND WITH
POSSIBLE EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS...AND LOCALIZED CONVERGENCE/FORWARD
PROPAGATION ALONG ASSOCIATED GUST FRONTAL SEGMENTS...SUGGEST THAT AT
LEAST A LOW PROBABILITY OF SEVERE /LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES/ WILL EXIST OVER PARTS OF FL ON MONDAY. WEAK
LAPSE RATES SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL INTENSITY/COVERAGE OF SEVERE
THREAT...ALTHOUGH A SMALL PART OF FL MAY REQUIRE UPGRADE TO SLIGHT
RISK IN LATER OUTLOOKS. ANY SEVERE STORMS THAT DO FORM SHOULD
DIMINISH AS SURFACE WAVE ACCELERATES E OFF THE NC CST LATER
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT.
..CORFIDI.. 01/24/2004