AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
540 AM CST FRI JAN 23 2004
...UPDATE...
HAVE DECIDED TO EXPAND POPS NORTHWARD A LITTLE FOR TODAY PER ON
GOING RADAR ACTIVITY ...AND TONIGHT PER CONTINUATION OF ISENTROPIC
LIFT. ALSO INCREASED POPS AREAWIDE SATURDAY. 75
&&
.DISCUSSION...
424 AM.
BAJA UPPER LOW TO EJECT EASTWARD WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AND STRONG UPPER SUPPORT FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL...THUNDERSTORMS
SATURDAY. EXPECT 1-2 INCHES OVER THE SOUTHEAST CWA AND 1/4 TO 1
INCH ELSEWHERE. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NOW FORECAST BY SPC
ALONG AND WEST OF I-35 SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THIS SUPPORTED
BY STRONG UNI-DIRECTIONAL SHEAR...CAPES TO 500 J/KG...FAVORABLE
DIV-Q COUPLET..AND LI/S MINUS 2 TO ZERO ADVECTING ACROSS THAT AREA.
UPPER SYSTEM AND RAIN ENDS SATURDAY NIGHT FROM THE WEST WITH SOME
LINGERING ACTIVITY FAR EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT.
WE BECOME DRY SLOTTED WITH WESTERLY AIR SUNDAY...THUS WARM AND
WINDY. COOLER MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS MODIFIED ARCTIC INTRUDES OVER
THE REGION. FLOW TURNS SOUTHERLY FOR WEDNESDAY WITH WARMER TEMPS.
MAJOR TEMPERATURES CHANGES EXPECTED DURING THE LAST PART OF THIS
FORECAST AS UPPER HEMISPHERIC PATTERN MERGES INTO ONE SUPPORTING
STRONG ARCTIC SURGES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. MODEL TIMING FOR
THURSDAY IS QUESTIONABLE AND WE CONCLUDE AN EARLIER ARRIVAL
WEDNESDAY NIGHT IS BETTER. FRIGIDDED CONDITIONS AREAWIDE THURSDAY.
ANOTHER MUCH STRONG SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR MAY COME FIRST WEEK OF
FEBRUARY. 75
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
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CaptinCrunch
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CaptinCrunch
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 8728
- Age: 57
- Joined: Mon Nov 03, 2003 4:33 pm
- Location: Kennedale, TX (Tarrant Co.)
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.
.DAY ONE...
HAZARDOUS WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER ALL OF NORTH TEXAS
SATURDAY...WITH HEAVY RAINS POSSIBLE SOUTH AND EAST OF A LAMPASAS...
CANTON LINE. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SMALL HAIL OR ISOLATED
DAMAGING WINDS FROM THESE STORMS BEFORE THEY END FROM THE WEST
DURING THE NIGHT SATURDAY.
A STRONG ARCTIC FRONT WILL BRING GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND MUCH COLDER
TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGHS THURSDAY ONLY
IN THE MID 30S IN THE NORTH...TO MID 40S IN THE SOUTH. NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM.
.DAY ONE...
HAZARDOUS WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER ALL OF NORTH TEXAS
SATURDAY...WITH HEAVY RAINS POSSIBLE SOUTH AND EAST OF A LAMPASAS...
CANTON LINE. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SMALL HAIL OR ISOLATED
DAMAGING WINDS FROM THESE STORMS BEFORE THEY END FROM THE WEST
DURING THE NIGHT SATURDAY.
A STRONG ARCTIC FRONT WILL BRING GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND MUCH COLDER
TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGHS THURSDAY ONLY
IN THE MID 30S IN THE NORTH...TO MID 40S IN THE SOUTH. NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM.
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