Severe Weather Risk Fri/Sat Gulf coast Tx

[Anonymous]

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0516 AM CST WED JAN 14 2004

VALID 161200Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF SRN AND ERN TX...

...SYNOPSIS...
MID AND UPPER LEVEL SSWLY FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN AND DEEPEN OVER SRN
AND ERN TX ON FRIDAY AS SRN STREAM UPPER TROUGH EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
OVER MEXICO AND THE SRN RCKYS ON THURSDAY EDGES EWD. PROGRESSIVE
UPSTREAM PATTERN AND PHASING WITH NRN STREAM SPEED MAXIMA SHOULD
RESULT IN SOME AMPLIFICATION OF THE TROUGH AS IT CONTINUES SLOWLY
EWD EARLY SATURDAY.

AT LOWER LEVELS...DEEP/SUSTAINED SSWLY FLOW AND ANOTHER 60+ HOURS OF
GULF AIR MASS MODIFICATION SHOULD ALLOW RATHER WARM/MOIST AIR TO
OVERSPREAD THE SRN AND SE TX COASTAL PLAIN BY LATE FRIDAY/EARLY
SATURDAY. FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING SHOULD STRENGTHEN OVER REGION
DURING THE PERIOD AS /1/ A WEAK FRONT ASSOCIATED NRN STREAM JET
SETTLES S ACROSS N TX AND /2/ ELY ISALLOBARIC FLOW OUT OF LWR MS VLY
SURFACE RIDGE MAINTAINS SHALLOW COOL AIR OVER NE TX/LA.

...SRN/ERN TX...
COMBINATION OF INCREASING MOISTURE INFLOW /850 MB DEWPOINTS RISING
TO AOA 10C/ AND FAIRLY STEEP /7-8 DEG C PER KM/ MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ASSOCIATED WITH SW FLOW ALOFT LIKELY TO RESULT IN AT LEAST A
MODEST DEGREE OF INSTABILITY /MUCAPE TO 1000 J/KG/ OVER SRN AND ERN
TX ON FRIDAY . WHILE REGION WILL PROBABLY BE WEAKLY CAPPED...
PERSISTENCE OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT SUGGESTS THAT CAP WILL BE
BREACHED...ESPECIALLY ALONG BANDS OF MESOSCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED
WITH DEVELOPING/INTENSIFYING FRONTAL ZONES EXPECTED TO FORM OVER
REGION DURING SECOND HALF OF PERIOD.

AMPLE /30 TO 40 KT/ DEEP WSWLY SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT TO SUPPORT
ORGANIZED CONVECTION AND SUPERCELLS IF STORMS DO INDEED FORM...AND
LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN BACKED TO A SELY COMPONENT OVER
PARTS OF CNTRL/SE TX AS A WARM FRONTAL SEGMENT TEMPORARILY DEVELOPS
ALONG THE CNTRL GULF CST. COUPLED WITH PERSISTENT NATURE OF FORCING
AND CONTINUED BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE INFLOW...IT APPEARS THAT AT
LEAST A LIMITED THREAT FOR SEVERE /HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES/ WILL
EXIST...ESPECIALLY LATER FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY.

[Suzi Q]

HOT DANG!!! I'll take slight risk over no risk at all. GAS UP YOUR VEHICLES AND LET'S GO!!!!!

Stupid southern snow quail

[Guest]

I just want it to all go away. My yard is so saturated that it will never dry out now....

Jek I'll send it all to you in Florida okay!!!

[Anonymous]

Well, since the southern snow chicken wont visit, I guess a nice round of severe weather will have to do...

Send some to Florida please--we getting dry here and could use it

As is usually the case though, any squall line will crash and burn as it enters florida's no storm zone

[Suzi Q]

Nope Jerk, I mean, Jek, I ain't gonna visit, gonna keep it all for myself. Ticka, why is your yard so saturated? My yard could use the rain badly, I even watered all my plants this morning after waiting all this time on the rain that hasn't come yet!

[Guest]

Last week when it rained we got over 1 inch of rain. I guess the east side got more and my yard is like a swampy - finally got down the decorations - but can't get the ladder out and finish the ones on the house cause it sinks into the ground and is unsteady.

[bfez1]

Our forecast here says 100% chance of rain on Saturday and windy!!!

[PTrackerLA]

It looks like it will be a wet weekend. A few more weeks of warm weather with rain and the trees will be busting out with their new leaves. I'm still keeping my fingers crossed for one big arctic outbreak before the winter is over.

[KatDaddy]

Our last storm system did not drop much rain however there was alot of water standing. A 1" rain looked like a 3" rain. It will not take much for ponding to occur.

[Anonymous]

Starting to pop..... Alabama looks good too

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
509 PM CST SAT JAN 17 2004

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
BURLESON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS

* UNTIL 600 PM CST

* AT 502 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR CALDWELL...OR
ABOUT OVER CALDWELL...AND MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE...
CALDWELL...CHRIESMAN...HIGHWAY 21...COOKS POINT...DEANVILLE

HAIL TO NICKEL SIZE IS THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM THIS STORM. PLEASE
SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY!

PLEASE REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE COUNTY SHERIFF...LOCAL POLICE...
OR DEPARTMENT OF PUBLIC SAFETY. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
523 PM CST SAT JAN 17 2004

ALZ062-064-FLZ001-002-180005-
UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER BALDWIN-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND ESCAMBIA-
523 PM CST SAT JAN 17 2004

...THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEING DETECTED OVER SOUTH BALDWIN ALABAMA AND
ESCAMBIA FLORIDA COUNTIES...

AT 523 PM CST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A LINE
OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM 5 MILES SOUTH OF OAK GROVE TO 5 MILES SOUTHEAST
OF ROBERTSDALE. THESE STORMS WERE MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

THE LINE OF STORMS WILL AFFECT AREAS IN AND AROUND...ELSANOR...
BARRINEAU PARK...OAK GROVE...MCDAVID AND CENTURY THROUGH 605 PM CST.

THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM THESE STORMS ARE STRONG WINDS AND DANGEROUS
LIGHTNING. WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH COULD DOWN SMALL TREE LIMBS OR
BRANCHES AND BLOW AROUND UNSECURED SMALL OBJECTS. FREQUENT CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE LIKELY. SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE HOME OR
BUILDING UNTIL THESE STORMS HAVE PASSED.

$$







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URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
ALC003-FLC033-180130-

FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
530 PM CST SAT JAN 17 2004

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOBILE HAS ISSUED AN URBAN AND
SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 730 PM CST SATURDAY
EVENING FOR PEOPLE IN THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...BALDWIN COUNTY.

IN NORTHWEST FLORIDA...ESCAMBIA COUNTY.

AT 520 PM CST...WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED HEAVY RAIN
FROM A THUNDERSTORM NEAR FORT MORGAN...OR ABOUT 7 MILES EAST OF
DAUPHIN ISLAND...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

SOME CITIES IN THE ADVISED AREA SUBJECT TO FLOOD PROBLEMS ARE...
MOLINO.

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF COULD CAUSE NUISNACE FLOODING OF SMALL CREEKS AND
STREAMS...HIGHWAYS AND UNDERPASSES. ADDITIONALLY...COUNTRY ROADS AND
FARMLANDS ALONG THE BANKS OF CREEKS AND STREAMS AND OTHER LOW LYING
AREAS ARE SUBJECT TO FLOODING.

AN URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY MEANS THAT EXCESSIVE RUNOFF
COULD CAUSE MINOR NUISANCE FLOODING OF CREEKS...STREAMS...AND OTHER
LOW LYING FLOOD PRONE AREAS...ESPECIALLY ALONG POOR DRAINAGE
ROADWAYS...STREETS AND UNDERPASSES.

REMEMBER...DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER
COVERS THE ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR
VEHICLE TO CROSS SAFELY. VEHICLES CAUGHT IN RISING WATER SHOULD BE
ABANDONED QUICKLY. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.

$$