STORM2K

Posted: **Sat Mar 08, 2003 12:58 pm**

The GFS and now the GGEM have been persistent with a meager SW divign in behind the CF as it passes through Ye Olde Virginny Monday nite into Tuesday. While there is no flow from the GOM, the sw does manage to SQUEEZ out .1-.2 qpf accross most of the state south of DCA...

Has to be watched, as we learned by the late week event in New England..a blip on radar tuesday was a decent event Thursday. So much energy with this tight gradient between the increasingly WARMNESS in the south and a strong thrust of cold air up north.

If it plays out as advertised...a minimal event, falls into dry air and ground temps are warm. Temps have been in the 50-65 range this week...

Any thoughts?

Huff

Posted: **Sat Mar 08, 2003 1:17 pm**

Huffwx - great to see you here at storm2k. I don't think winter is over with yet - sometimes March always surprises us - when we are waiting on Spring - Winter gives us one last punch. It will be interesting to see if this verifies.

Patricia aka Ticka1

Posted: **Sat Mar 08, 2003 5:47 pm**

I hope theres ten feet of snow.

Posted: **Sat Mar 08, 2003 7:52 pm**

lol thats where I live....almost 10 feet has fallen here this year! The ski resorts have a base of 112" in spots...unreal!

Posted: **Sun Mar 09, 2003 1:16 am**

It seems 0z guidance has backed off the event, true to form for such a meager SW.

One of these SW has potential, but until we regain the postive PNA, potential may be the word.

Huff

Posted: **Sun Mar 09, 2003 1:51 am**

Have you looked further down the road? GFS is looking(or was last night)like we could have a major event starting in TX on the 20th and moving E etc., through the 25th. Comments?

Posted: **Sun Mar 09, 2003 4:31 am**

Stormsfury may be of help on this one...athough he does the carolina's mostly VA isn't too far off.

Posted: **Sun Mar 09, 2003 11:17 am**

With plenty of cold air in place and going into a transition period, we could see quite an influx of precip, but October and March are tough months to pin down events until they are right on top of you practically.

Posted: **Sun Mar 09, 2003 12:34 pm**

JQ Public wrote:Stormsfury may be of help on this one...athough he does the carolina's mostly VA isn't too far off.

I haven't had much time at all with work schedule taking me from 6 am to 6 pm all this past week, with a lunch break (3 hour lunch break) ... I am out of town ATT, and will return to CHS sometime later today. I ended up 51 hours this past week, and next week doesn't look any lighter. I will try to go into some extensive detail later tonight as I don't work Monday until 1 pm in the afternoon ...

HM (long-range forecaster) on WWBB has consistently alluded to this timeframe between the 20th and 25th ... Like I said before on WWBB, when you have record highs and record lows occurring simultaneously in the continental U.S., eventually something has to give. When these two seasons collide...HELLO BIG DOG! ...

Posted: **Sun Mar 09, 2003 6:22 pm**

First and foremost, I would like to welcome HuffWx to Storm2k. Huff will be a valuable asset to this board.

The NOGAPS at 108-132 hours at 500mb today showed a closed upper low.

The surface features do not seem to match up to these 500mb features.
Looks like this has a lot of potetial.

Posted: **Sun Mar 09, 2003 10:25 pm**

Would LOVE for that nogaps to happen, but I doubt it...The chances for a bigger event East of the appies and SOUTH of DC is dying by the day....The event on the 20th COULD happen, but climo goes strongly against it. I could see an event in the MTS however..(North of 39 Lattitude has longer shelf life as does elevation all they way down to NC..

Huff

Posted: **Sun Mar 09, 2003 10:27 pm**

I would love to see it.

Posted: **Mon Mar 10, 2003 1:31 am**

Welcome huffwx!

Posted: **Mon Mar 10, 2003 10:50 am**

VA stands a good shot at 60s with this advance of the ridge that will be slowly bubbling east this week....wait for it!

Posted: **Mon Mar 10, 2003 1:26 pm**

00z NOGAPS still has the closed 500mb low - 84 to 120 hours
But as Huff said already, it looks very warm out ahead of this baby and it looks to be too late for us from VA southward. This, however, may help set the stage down the road as this just may become a 50/50 low.

Posted: **Mon Mar 10, 2003 1:43 pm**

Man that takes that LP diving southeast...eek! I hope this ridge building doesnt amplify too much into a classic Omega!

Posted: **Mon Mar 10, 2003 2:02 pm**

I saw a couple of models yesterday try to build a Western NA Ridge and an upper low underneath the ridge creating an Omega Block yesterday in the West.

Don't know if this is still there today.

Posted: **Mon Mar 10, 2003 2:20 pm**

Now the 12z GFS has something as well on a cutoff 500mb low - further south than the NOGAPS.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/avn/12/fp0_084.shtml
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _096.shtml
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _108.shtml

Posted: **Mon Mar 10, 2003 2:20 pm**

lol word of the week: Omega! I'm rolling with the possibility that it forms...havent seen one all year.....seems appropriate it happens now.

Posted: **Mon Mar 10, 2003 2:22 pm**

Rob-TheStormChaser wrote:lol word of the week: Omega! I'm rolling with the possibility that it forms...havent seen one all year.....seems appropriate it happens now.

OMEGA! ...*LOL*
Check out my post above yours.

STORM2K

Winter has a few last breath's for VA?

Winter has a few last breath's for VA?