Prognostic Discussion for the Southeastern States
Read below for excerpt from the Storm Prediction Center regarding Severe potential.
...SYNOPSIS...
A CLOSED MID LEVEL HIGH TO THE W OF BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL BREAK
DOWN AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH INVOF THE ALEUTIANS DIGS SEWD OVER THE
NRN GULF OF ALASKA. THIS WILL ALLOW A SHORTWAVE TROUGH...CENTERED
W OF SFO EARLY THIS MORNING...TO DIG SEWD TODAY TOWARD NRN BAJA AND
THEN EJECT ENEWD OVER THE SRN PLAINS TO THE MS VALLEY BY TOMORROW
NIGHT. IN THE WAKE OF A SURFACE LOW THAT IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP
NEWD FROM THE OH VALLEY TO MAINE THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD...
EXPECT A TRAILING BAROCLINIC ZONE TO STALL FROM E TX TO WRN TN IN
ADVANCE OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH EJECTING FROM THE SRN ROCKIES AREA.
WEAK CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED ALONG THIS FRONT INVOF NRN LA/SRN AR
DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND THIS LOW SHOULD MOVE ENEWD TOWARD NC/VA
BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
...GULF STATES...
BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINTS IN THE 65-70 F RANGE ARE PRESENT OVER THE
CENTRAL/SRN GULF...AND THIS MOISTURE SHOULD SPREAD INLAND TOMORROW
ACROSS THE GULF COAST. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S WILL
COMBINE WITH 7-8 C/KM LAPSE RATES IN THE 2-4 KM AGL LAYER...AND THE
INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...TO SUPPORT MLCAPE VALUES OF 500-
1500 J/KG IN THE WARM SECTOR. EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP BY
LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS E/SE TX...AND THEN SPREAD NEWD OVER
LA/MS/AL/GA DURING THE NIGHT. STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE CO-
LOCATED WITH THIS WEAK-MODERATE INSTABILITY...THUS A FEW SUPERCELLS
WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE LARGE HAIL THREAT SHOULD BE GREATER IN THE
SE TX AREA WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE MAXIMIZED...WHILE DAMAGING
WINDS SHOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE GULF STATES
GIVEN STRONG SPEED SHEAR AND SOMEWHAT UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES.
