Yes, the 12Z AVN Changed Dramatically

[Steve H.]

So people in the Mid Atlantic may have gotten the idea over the weekend that winter's ove......NOT. 12 degrees in the Big Apple early this a.m., after a rainy weekend. What looked like a cold/warm rain/cold week in the east is now getting interesting. Latest AVN shows two lows running the Arctic front. Both trending farther to the SE on the 12z AVN, and at 72 hours gives the Mid Atlantic and SNE something to get excited about. Is the second low the stronger one? Maybe. Also, I know that this is far out, but look at the 264 hours 12Z. It shows a monster storm in the south, with 4 - 6 inch liquid equivalents. No, winter is not over!! Well, back to work

[Amanzi]

wow 4-6 inches!!! Let us know about any updates!

[Stormsfury]

This Strong Feature has been depicted in some form or another as a very strong storm now for 3 days...

[Scott_inVA]

So people in the Mid Atlantic may have gotten the idea over the weekend that winter's ove......NOT. 12 degrees in the Big Apple early this a.m., after a rainy weekend. What looked like a cold/warm rain/cold week in the east is now getting interesting. Latest AVN shows two lows running the Arctic front. Both trending farther to the SE on the 12z AVN, and at 72 hours gives the Mid Atlantic and SNE something to get excited about. Is the second low the stronger one? Maybe. Also, I know that this is far out, but look at the 264 hours 12Z. It shows a monster storm in the south, with 4 - 6 inch liquid equivalents. No, winter is not over!! Well, back to work

People in the Mid-Atlantic have given up on the GFS and the Eta this winter.

The AVN (GFS) was very good with TC's last year, but had been horrible, esp in MA this winter.

Unfortunately, the Eta has been wretched...even inside 36 hours.

FWIW, I spend about half the time reviewing models I did before the last 3 MA storms. This has not been a fun winter over here.

Scott
WREL Radio,
Lexington, VA

[vbhoutex]

Hey Scott!! Welcome to Storm2k!!!

I am not nearly as good with the models as you are, but I've been wondering about the verification in your area. What I saw and what really happened often seemed to be somewhat different this winter even ino our neck of the woods! And if I remember correctly it wasn't necessarily on the always on the wrong side of cold or wrong side of warmer(hope this makes some sense!!)but varied. I had a lot more confidence in GFS after the Hurricane Season, but I'm starting to wonder now. Maybe someone can explain why it is better with TC's. I would presume(kind of obvious I guess)that it has something to do with some possibly missing parameters that need to be added to the equation.