STORM2K

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
900 PM PST THU NOV 27 2003

.SHORT TERM...WINDS HAVE BECOME MORE LOCALIZED ACROSS THE AREA... BUT GRADS CONT TO TREND OFFSHORE. BLV THE EXTENSION OF THE WIND ADVISORY THROUGH NOON FRI WAS THE CORRECT MOVE...SINCE WINDS SHOULD AGAIN BECOME WDSPRD OVERNIGHT TOWARD SUNRISE. HIGH CLOUDS WILL STREAM ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH A DIRTY RIDGE FIRMLY IN PLACE. ON FRI...TEMPS SHOULD WARM SEVERAL DEGS IN MOST AREAS...SINCE THE BULK OF THE COLD AIR ASSOCD WITH THE SFC HIGH IN THE GREAT BASIN WILL HAVE BEEN EXHAUSTED. MODELS HAVE COME INTO SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE SYSTEM ACROSS THE ERN PACIFIC... NOW GENERALLY FAVORING A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED...A TRACK SOMEWHAT FARTHER N...AND A FAIR AMOUNT OF WKNG AS IT MOVES INTO THE W CST. INCREASING MID AND HIGH LVL MSTR SHOULD CAUSE CLOUDS TO INCREASE AND THICKEN ON SAT...AT LEAST N OF PT CONCEPTION...WHILE FARTHER S...THERE SHOULD STILL BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE THROUGH THE HIGH CLOUDS. OFSHR GRADS WL WKN FRI NIGHT/SAT...SO XPCT MUCH LESS IN THE WAY OF WIND. SHOULD ALSO SEE SOME COOLING ON SAT ON THE COASTAL PLAIN...MAINLY NEAR THE COAST. VLYS...MTNS AND DSTRS SHOULD EXPERIENCE LTL CHANGE IN TEMPS OR POSSIBLY EVEN A BIT MORE WARMING.

WITH MODELS NOW SHOWING THE SYSTEM PROGRESSING EWD MUCH MORE SLOWLY...RIDGING ACROSS THE AREA SHOULD DEFLECT MOST OF THE MSTR AHEAD OF THE STORM TO THE N OF THE AREA ACRS CENTRAL AND NRN CA THROUGH SUNDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT SOME WARM FRONTAL DEVELOPMENT COULD BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN TO SLO AND NWRN SBA COUNTIES LATE SAT INTO SAT NIGHT...BUT THAT IS A RELATIVELY SMALL THREAT. OTHERWISE...AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH LVL CLOUD COVER... AND ADDITIONAL WKNG OF OFSHR GRADS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A FEW DEGS OF COOLING ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY N OF PT CONCEPTION. STILL LOOKS LIKE TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL IN MOST AREAS S OF PT CONCEPTION.

.LONG TERM...AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO REGARDING THE STORM IN THE ERN PAC IS THAT AS IT MOVES INTO NRN CA...THE SRN END OF A FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS NRN SXNS OF THE FCST AREA. THIS SHOULD BRING A THREAT OF RAIN TO AREAS N OF PT CONCEPTION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. OTHERWISE...PTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS SHOULD CONT INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK... WITH NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.

How the heck are you supposed to understand this? :-?

Joshua21Young wrote:SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
900 PM PST THU NOV 27 2003

.SHORT TERM...WINDS HAVE BECOME MORE LOCALIZED ACROSS THE AREA... BUT GRADS CONT TO TREND OFFSHORE. BLV THE EXTENSION OF THE WIND ADVISORY THROUGH NOON FRI WAS THE CORRECT MOVE...SINCE WINDS SHOULD AGAIN BECOME WDSPRD OVERNIGHT TOWARD SUNRISE. HIGH CLOUDS WILL STREAM ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH A DIRTY RIDGE FIRMLY IN PLACE. ON FRI...TEMPS SHOULD WARM SEVERAL DEGS IN MOST AREAS...SINCE THE BULK OF THE COLD AIR ASSOCD WITH THE SFC HIGH IN THE GREAT BASIN WILL HAVE BEEN EXHAUSTED. MODELS HAVE COME INTO SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE SYSTEM ACROSS THE ERN PACIFIC... NOW GENERALLY FAVORING A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED...A TRACK SOMEWHAT FARTHER N...AND A FAIR AMOUNT OF WKNG AS IT MOVES INTO THE W CST. INCREASING MID AND HIGH LVL MSTR SHOULD CAUSE CLOUDS TO INCREASE AND THICKEN ON SAT...AT LEAST N OF PT CONCEPTION...WHILE FARTHER S...THERE SHOULD STILL BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE THROUGH THE HIGH CLOUDS. OFSHR GRADS WL WKN FRI NIGHT/SAT...SO XPCT MUCH LESS IN THE WAY OF WIND. SHOULD ALSO SEE SOME COOLING ON SAT ON THE COASTAL PLAIN...MAINLY NEAR THE COAST. VLYS...MTNS AND DSTRS SHOULD EXPERIENCE LTL CHANGE IN TEMPS OR POSSIBLY EVEN A BIT MORE WARMING.

WITH MODELS NOW SHOWING THE SYSTEM PROGRESSING EWD MUCH MORE SLOWLY...RIDGING ACROSS THE AREA SHOULD DEFLECT MOST OF THE MSTR AHEAD OF THE STORM TO THE N OF THE AREA ACRS CENTRAL AND NRN CA THROUGH SUNDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT SOME WARM FRONTAL DEVELOPMENT COULD BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN TO SLO AND NWRN SBA COUNTIES LATE SAT INTO SAT NIGHT...BUT THAT IS A RELATIVELY SMALL THREAT. OTHERWISE...AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH LVL CLOUD COVER... AND ADDITIONAL WKNG OF OFSHR GRADS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A FEW DEGS OF COOLING ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY N OF PT CONCEPTION. STILL LOOKS LIKE TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL IN MOST AREAS S OF PT CONCEPTION.

.LONG TERM...AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO REGARDING THE STORM IN THE ERN PAC IS THAT AS IT MOVES INTO NRN CA...THE SRN END OF A FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS NRN SXNS OF THE FCST AREA. THIS SHOULD BRING A THREAT OF RAIN TO AREAS N OF PT CONCEPTION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. OTHERWISE...PTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS SHOULD CONT INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK... WITH NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.

How the heck are you supposed to understand this? :-?

Joshua,

Most offices use the same abbreviations; take some getting used to but most of it makes sense

Here's a link that may help:
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/rnk/nws_abbreviations.htm

Scott

As far as I am concerned, a forecast product which is available to the public should be written in such a manner that it is readily understandable and accessible by the public. A product which has every 4th word or so abbreviated does not fit that definition. Yes I know a lot about weather but I certainly do not know what some of these abbreviations mean. IMO an unabbreviated AFD is much easier and takes less time to read than one with 100 abbreviations. Why post something that the general public can access if they may not be able to understand it? :-?

Joshua21Young wrote:As far as I am concerned, a forecast product which is available to the public should be written in such a manner that it is readily understandable and accessible by the public. A product which has every 4th word or so abbreviated does not fit that definition. Yes I know a lot about weather but I certainly do not know what some of these abbreviations mean. IMO an unabbreviated AFD is much easier and takes less time to read than one with 100 abbreviations. Why post something that the general public can access if they may not be able to understand it? :-?

AFDs aren't really for the general public. Most people want nothing more than a local forecast; AFDs are a tool the period met can use to explain what he/she thinks is going on, some basis for the forecast and some opining about the next 3 periods. The abbreviations are used b/c years ago these were typed and it was easier to use NOAA-speak shorthand that type out lengthy text.

Sorta like the Internet... we use LOL, ROFL, WTF (ooops) and other abbreviations. come to think of it, I'd like to see an AFD like this:

"Reviewed previous ZFP pkg...ROFLMAO. WTF were we thinking. ATTM, weak IR with PWATS <.50" w/FFG at 3.0"? LOL!"

Now that would be honest

Scott

ROTFL! That would be funny if they did say that in an AFD someday...valid point though, I suppose you're right.

A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AND THE WINDS ARE HOWLING ( ah, the wolves must be on the loose from the zoo) ALONG THE COAST. WILL MAINTAIN THE WIND ADVISORY THROUGH 9 AM. WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO RELAX (what, are they taking drugs?) THIS MORNING AND SHOW A SIGNIFICANT DROP OFF (as in "look out for that drop off on the mountain") IN SPEEDS BY EARLY AFTERNOON. DRY AIR SHOULD PRODUCE CLEAR SKIES TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY (SOME CIRRUS SATURDAY). MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN ON SUNDAY WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN CLOUDS. THE FORECAST BECOMES A LITTLE MURKY (murky, like my pond water?) ON MONDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND ETA SATURATE (someone should learn to turn the hose off) THE LOWEST 800 MB SO CLOUDS ARE A GOOD BET (how good, like you'd place $3000.00 on black?)BUT THE ETA DEVELOPS A COASTAL TROUGH (the pigs should be very happy) WHILE THE GFS DOES NOT. IN THE PAST...THE ETA DID A SUPERIOR JOB (i.e. it was right 1 time out of 100) IN DETECTING THESE FEATURES BUT THE ETA HAS NOT BEEN ITSELF FOR A WHILE (so who has it been, the GFS? Willard Scott?). YET CONSIDERING THE COOLING OF THE SHELF WATERS (due to a massive dumping of Dasani)... THINK A COASTAL TROUGH COULD SET UP. WILL STAY WITH THE CURRENT FCST FOR NOW (because I am too lazy to change it) BUT THINK RAIN CHANCES MIGHT BE REQUIRED (translation-flash floods will occur) FOR MONDAY IF THE COASTAL TROUGH DOES INDEED DEVELOP. ANOTHER S/WV WILL CROSS THE MID-SECTION OF THER (ther? who's ther? like "knock knock, who's ther?")COUNTRY ON WEDNESDAY. THE EFFECTS FOR THIS AREA LOOK MINIMAL AT THIS TIME (we reserve the right to drastically alter this forecast and cannot be held responsible for being completely wrong). THE MEAN FLOW (bad, bad flow. now go to your room) REMAINS RELATIVELY ZONAL...SO NO REAL INFLUX OF COLD AIR IS EXPECTED THIS WEEK (freeze warning for Tuesday will be issued Tuesday morning). WINDS WILL STAY UP OVER THE MARINE AREA TODAY (galveston bay will be blown away). MIGHT DOWNGRADE THE GALE WARNING TO AN SCA BUT WON'T DECIDE UNTIL (after I take a two hour coffee break) CLOSE TO PRESS TIME. EITHER WAY...( I can say whatever I want and you still won't understand it) A ROUGH DAY FOR MARINERS (Seattle is in town?) ON THE WATER.
I mean, I study this stuff and feel like I need an interpreter half the time!

Your local NWS homepage should have the key for what the abbreviations mean.