STORM2K

GSP going with Flood Watch due to model consensus of slowing down the front tonight as low pressure develops...


BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
331 AM EST THU NOV 27 2003

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG HAS ISSUED A
FLOOD WATCH FOR TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. THIS WATCH INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES...

IN WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...
AVERY...BUNCOMBE...BURKE...CALDWELL...GRAHAM...HAYWOOD...HENDERSON...
JACKSON...MACON...MADISON...MCDOWELL...MITCHELL...POLK...
RUTHERFORD...SWAIN...TRANSYLVANIA AND YANCEY.

IN UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA...
GREENVILLE...OCONEE...PICKENS AND SPARTANBURG.

IN NORTHEAST GEORGIA...
FRANKLIN...HABERSHAM...RABUN AND STEPHENS.

A FLOOD WATCH MEANS FLOODING IS POSSIBLE BUT NOT IMMINENT.

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES TODAY. THE WEATHER SYSTEM WILL SLOW DOWN SOME...AS LOW
PRESSURE FORMS ALONG THE FRONT. THE SLOWING OF THE WEATHER SYSTEM
WILL PERMIT A FAIRLY LONG PERIOD OF MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL ACROSS THE WATCH AREA.

TOTAL RAINFALL IN THE WATCH AREA WILL GENERALLY BE 1 TO 3
INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS. UP TO 5 INCHES MAY
OCCUR...ESPECIALLY ALONG SOUTHERN FACING MOUNTAIN SLOPES. THIS WOULD
BE ENOUGH RAINFALL TO CAUSE GENERAL RISES ALONG MANY SMALL STREAMS
AND IN FLOOD PRONE AREAS. SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD OCCUR...AND COULD
CAUSE RAPID RISES ALONG SOME STREAMS WHEN EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FALLS
QUICKLY.

THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED BETWEEN ABOUT MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND
NOON FRIDAY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR FLOODING OR FLASH FLOODING WOULD BE
FROM EARLY FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH MID DAY FRIDAY.

A FLOOD WATCH IS ISSUED WHEN THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR STREAMS AND
CREEKS TO RISE TO NEAR OR ABOVE BANKFULL LEVELS. THESE RISES ARE
USUALLY DUE TO EXCESSIVE RAIN FALLING ON ALREADY SATURATED GROUND.
PEOPLE IN THE WATCH AREA SHOULD KEEP ABREAST OF THE WEATHER AND
PREPARE TO MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND SHOULD A WARNING BE ISSUED.

It's pouring down rain, here. There's already been
five tornado warnings posted in Mississippi, as well,
so, ya'll keep a heads up, down there!

Thanks for the bulletin post, Dan!

Very stormy here too. Causeway is closed.

It's really nasty here right now! The heavy rain started about 30 minutes ago and my yard is already flooding.

Choo Choo....the rain train just keeps on coming in south LA!

It got scary during the night with the wind...had a 54 mph gust! And now my backyard is flooded and the coulees are full.

The models continue to trend stronger with this storm system ...

Now the GFS (out to lunch) on the 00z run, is more in line and the ETA BOMBS the system to 968 mb as the system goes NEG TILT over NE ...
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/staff/carbin/mdl06/

And yes, the potential for wind damage exists tomorrow with a line of thunderstorms, especially if surface heating and destabilization are realized ... from the Eastern Carolinas into the Delmarva regions.

Also looks like another significant wind event for the Northeast States, yet again even without severe thunderstorms as the system BOMBS over the NE ...

SF

Dang ya'll!!! I kept the Lake Charles NWS radar open from last night and noticed earlier that it was still training over Lafayette Frick. Unfortunately, it doesn't look to be ending anytime soon.

Ya'll stay safe!!

We've got some scattered stuff over here, but nothing like that.

Stormsfury wrote:The models continue to trend stronger with this storm system ...

Now the GFS (out to lunch) on the 00z run, is more in line and the ETA BOMBS the system to 968 mb as the system goes NEG TILT over NE ...
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/staff/carbin/mdl06/

And yes, the potential for wind damage exists tomorrow with a line of thunderstorms, especially if surface heating and destabilization are realized ... from the Eastern Carolinas into the Delmarva regions.

Also looks like another significant wind event for the Northeast States, yet again even without severe thunderstorms as the system BOMBS over the NE ...

SF

Over the next few hours, it will be interesting to see if the radar lights up. I remember with last weeks storm, that there was concern that Gulf coast convection would rob moisture farther north. We'll have to see if that may happen this go around.

BTW: with the models trending stronger, I would not be suprised if the North Carolina High Country gets their first snow of the season on friday, thanks to that ol' Northwest Upslope flow on the backside.

Stormsfury wrote:The models continue to trend stronger with this storm system ...

Now the GFS (out to lunch) on the 00z run, is more in line and the ETA BOMBS the system to 968 mb as the system goes NEG TILT over NE ...
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/staff/carbin/mdl06/

And yes, the potential for wind damage exists tomorrow with a line of thunderstorms, especially if surface heating and destabilization are realized ... from the Eastern Carolinas into the Delmarva regions.

Also looks like another significant wind event for the Northeast States, yet again even without severe thunderstorms as the system BOMBS over the NE ...

SF

Yep.
GFS continues to prog a stronger trof over the NE.
Meanwhile front is creeping along w/an eventual SFC Low coming right up the west of the apps (more east than I thought ). Flood Watch now along VA/WV border along the Apps and 1-3" QPF not unreasonable. -SN with backlash continues to show on models and appears sensible... at least on western slopes. Eta and GFS both lead toward a likely wind advisory (at least) here on Friday. Best of all... convection should develop east of the Blue Ridge, south of DC. Snow, floods and thunderstorms...hmmm...who says the Mid-Atlantic is boring?

Happy Thanksgiving.
Scott

Dan wrote:

Stormsfury wrote:The models continue to trend stronger with this storm system ...

Now the GFS (out to lunch) on the 00z run, is more in line and the ETA BOMBS the system to 968 mb as the system goes NEG TILT over NE ...
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/staff/carbin/mdl06/

And yes, the potential for wind damage exists tomorrow with a line of thunderstorms, especially if surface heating and destabilization are realized ... from the Eastern Carolinas into the Delmarva regions.

Also looks like another significant wind event for the Northeast States, yet again even without severe thunderstorms as the system BOMBS over the NE ...

SF

Over the next few hours, it will be interesting to see if the radar lights up. I remember with last weeks storm, that there was concern that Gulf coast convection would rob moisture farther north. We'll have to see if that may happen this go around.

BTW: with the models trending stronger, I would not be suprised if the North Carolina High Country gets their first snow of the season on friday, thanks to that ol' Northwest Upslope flow on the backside.

I posted about the snowfall possibilities last night on this thread ... and I think it'll happen ...
http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=19674

Right now, I'm very concerned about widespread convection coverage in the Southern Appalachains, and as usual, GSP is right on top of this situation ... if the Eastern Carolinas on up to the DELMARVA get any destabilization as well, a severe threat is quite possible, especially with a 90 kt+ southerly mid level jet streaking through the region ...

I don't think the convection down south will rob that much moisture ... if anything, best convergence looks like it'll move away from the Gulf Coast (as the system move NE) and a weakening of the convection across Southern GA/Northern FL ...

SF