Final snowfall guess for 2/26 PM through 2/28

[JCT777]

Here is a link to my updated map of snowfall totals for 2/26 PM through 2/28 for the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast.

http://community.webshots.com/photo/628 ... 8596UnNFsH

Based on what I have seen from the computer models last night and this morning, it does not look like the snow will be as impressive in New England, northern PA and in Ohio as I had earlier thought. Plus I moved the rain/snow line to the south based on the expectation of a more southerly storm track.

[Steve H.]

I still think there will be a decent snow event from the Middle Atlantic to the New England coast from Marblehead south. The models are screwed up!! Even the EC doesn't look right 'cause it shows the heights too low over the eastern lakes. I'm standing by my past remarks that the changes made to correct biases in the models last year introduced more problems than it solved. I think that anyone allowed to touch the model builds needs to have gone thru college using a slipstick Everyone today wants a quick fix. They loaded equations into the SW that have raised havoc :o We are only a day from the "storm" rolling toward the coast and the best weather mets on the east coast are still biting their fingernails!! It's laughable 4 - 6 for NYC by Friday nite; 6 - 10 for Philly: 8 - 12 for DC....case closed. BTW, although I check in on NE weather from time to time, I'm just filling in the lull 'til Hurricane season. Its gonna be busy. El Nino surged this past month but will fade by June. Will be an exciting season. cheers!!

[Steve H.]

Well, I'm not gonna put the Black Bird in the oven yet, but this storm system I expected in the MidA/NE is not panning out the way I thought. More like a baggy trough accompanied by a bit of over-running precip. Still could surprise us and give Central Park their 3.3 inches they need to break the record for the snowiest February, but it's not looking as likely. If that precip can make it to LI sound and enhance due to over-running with the cold air, maybe they can squeeze out 4" by Friday nite. But this has been a humbling week for many. I still think there's another biggie in the wings, maybe next week, that will crawl up the east coast. Models showed evidence of this yesterday, but downplayed it today of course. But energy got held back on this Fridays event, and I get the feeling that a strong S/W will eject out of Calif and , dependent on the timing with the cold air coming into the plains, could give the central Plains, Ohio Valley and Mid Atlantic/NE something big. As always, timing is everything. It could just as well head to the lakes in the cold dome precedes it. However, next weeks ridging seems to be stretched out from Montana thru the lakes into Maine (trusting models again), suppressing the system, but not as far south as today. But will it be amplified? Damn, one of these has to be!!! Oh well, have a great evening folks! Hurricane season is a day closer. Cheers!!

[Stormsfury]

This storm and pattern has been quite a nightmare for everyone, including myself ...
But one my thread about CAD, I warned what I thought would happen and it turned out that verified ... IMO, the ETA was contradicting itself in relations to the good AG (Ageostrophic Gradient) in relation to CAD, but at the same time, the bias - was very aggressive in bringing the coastal trough thru SC and NC (which almost never verifies in moderate or stronger wedging/CAD scenarios) and hence, the ETA bust even in the short range.

A full discussion available on my website about my thoughts (should have read Wednesday, not Tuesday) ... Available HERE

[Steve H.]

The last event humbled everyone StormFury, and I have little confidence in models right now 'cause we don't know if they're gonna be right! Ya just can't bank on a bias without getting burned I guess. Today's storm never really materialized for most from Philly to Boston , kinda annoying. Now the real test. Let's see how the models do with regard to the weekend event. 12Z friday GGEM has mostly snow for New England, even down to the coast!! (well, maybe a brief mix at the height, but then back to snow). ETA has snow to rain at the coast, then dry slot, snow inland; and the AVN has rain at the coast, snow to rain Hartford/south of Mass Pike, then a change maybe back to snow, Snow NNW of there. Let's see how/if a GFS bias plays out when it initializes a low at a higher latitude. Yes it is a different case since it is a northern stream system, but let's see if the trend migrates it south and east and maybe phased this sucker, more like GGEM. I personally believe that this thing will trend to a colder solution during the next 36 hours. BTW, It's 1:57 PM Friday now. Wonder if the clock is funny on the forum or just Zulu?? I want to see if there's any consistency with the errors of the models, or if they're underestimating the strength of the ridging and cold air due to climatology. What am I thinking, all this sounds like work :o . But it would be interesting. Cheers!!

[Stormsfury]

Steve H., I agree that the pattern was a nightmare, but I was glad that my experience down here in CHS about CAD and the coastal trough paid off on my forecast prognostic discussion ...

A lot of details panned out which led me to believe that the UKMET was on to something about 4 days out with its further south and suppressed solution ... and reading the CAD somewhat ... (but as usual, the models underprogged how far the wedge would go ... and the temperatures as well)

What a nightmarish pattern ... Believe me though, I just about had nightmares literally about my discussion and for the first time, I really sweated it, because I didn't get a lot of time to work with it since I worked so many 12 hour stretches with a 3 hour lunch break in between...

To tell the truth, Steve, I'm taking a break for a few days since the weather pattern has quieted down in the Southeast pretty much and need one, too.

First it was the President's Day Storm, and in regards to the Carolinas/NE Georgia - I saw the potential icing scenario 9 days out (DT from WxRisk.com saw this a day before me), but I nailed the Carolinas/NE GA icing - actually that forecast seemed easy.
Then it was the severe weather outbreak last weekend and the high wind event and the flooding rains in the Mid-Atlantic, and the Northeast.
Then this last storm ... along with work stress and long hours have totally mentally drained me, so I hope the weather stays boring for a few days to recharge me, maybe update my website a little bit ...

Turns out with the last storm, the GGEM may have had the best handle on it.

BTW, Good luck with this storm - and hoping for you for plenty of snow (if that's what you want) - I have to sit this one out (for sanity purposes...*LOL*)

[Steve H.]

I actually live in Palm Bay Florida (40 miles south of Kennedy Space Center) , but grew up on Long Island, then went to school in Buffalo. But in the winter my hearts up in snow country. Went through the Buffalo bliz's which are incredible, but there's still nothing like a great Nor'easter!! Give me one more storm like '78 and I'll rest in peace There's nothing like snow in the Mid Atlantic and NE. I do miss that....but not the shoveling. Waiting for Huricane season here and we'll see if anything approaches our area this year. Erin came ashore about 20 miles south of here, but she was minimal. Irene gave us a good shot for a Cat 1 ( even though they kept her at TS (BS)), but nothing since then. That's the difference down here, you can go years without any action. At least up there you get some storms every winter. I think Floridas time is coming again though. And when it does there is going to be some big damage. Something like 1935 may be coming soon again. Time to rest. Maybe one more big one in the NE this winter...we'll see. Cheers. BTW, I assume CHS is Charleston, what kind of work do you do there? Just curious.

[Stormsfury]

BTW, I assume CHS is Charleston, what kind of work do you do there? Just curious.

Yep, you're correct, Steve. CHS is Charleston. I'm 30 years old and have been here all my life in the Charleston area.

As for snows, we average about 0.5" a year and usually get once snow event a year. Usually these amount to trace accumulations, however, once in a awhile we'll get accumulating snow, maybe on average once every 2 to 3 years. Based on climatology records, CHS averages a significant (for this area) maybe one in 15 years ... the last two were 1989, and 1973. We're due.

I work for the U.S. Postal Service in Charleston. I've been with the company for 5 1/2 years now and at times becomes very grueling (like currently)...

Severe weather here occasionally happens, but marine influences most of the time protect us from the stronger storms. Tropical Systems have an influence on our weather, of course, with an occasional big hit. Hugo in 1989 was only 1 of 2 CAT 4's in the 20th Century (Hazel being the other one in 1954), but Gracie in 1959 was particularly severe down in Beaufort. (138 mph peak wind gust).

I've heard stories and seen video out of Buffalo of the LES and I think those are absolutely incredible. Aside from the 1989 Christmas Snowstorm in Charleston, the closest thing I've seen to a blizzard was with the Superstorm in 1993 ... Blowing snow with 50-65 mph wind gusts- nice to see the snow, but just unable to really enjoy it with the tremendous winds. (Lowest Pressure reading here - 28.80"/975mb)



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