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[SSCWrules]

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Hi, my name is Kevin Martin. I am emailing you right now to tell you about my newest forecasting techniques that prove very accurate. it's a combination of weather model reading, and math. hope you like it. tell me what you think. Ill be attending some army duties for quite sometime starting monday, so if any response could come back before then, great! thanks!

Severe Weather Forecasting Atmospheric Mathematics
By Kevin Douglas Martin.
November 2003

I've used this math for a few weeks, and it proves well. You can see my last entry results
a few weeks back at

http://www.powow.com/sciencesky/scww1.html

Also in that website including my newest tornado, and hail size maps.



WEBSITES FOR INFO

TO CONVERT TEMPERATURES OR WINDS! USE THIS WEBSITE METEOROLOGY CALCULATER!
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ffc/html/metcalc.shtml



USE ALL MODEL DATA GO TO THIS SITE!
http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/(go to the GFS US VIEW)
Dewpoint(850MBtd chart) Find the Celsios Value, convert it to Fahrenheit, then add 10!
Surface Temperture(on the model site as SFC T)
Low Level Jet(850MB Spd chart)
Surface Moisture Carrying Wind(SLP chart, look for direction of wind only!)
700MB Dry Air Carrying Wind(700MB speed chart, look for direction of wind only!)
Upper Level Jet Stream(250MB speed chart)

CAPE VALUES CAN BE FOUND IN THE 1-3 day forecast or ETA charts in the model site!
Look for SBCAPE

HELICITY VALUES CAN BE FOUND IN thE 1-3 day forecasted or ETA charts in the model site!
Look for Helicity 1KM, and Helicity 3KM, add the values together, and divide by 2 to get a value of the helicity in that area!

EXPECTED HAIL SIZE! Look at bottom to see how to do it!
====================================================================================================================================================================================================================================================================================




Severe Weather Math Equations

The percent is the Value put it in a table like this! Use the actual value and compare to the chart of that severe ingredient. follow like this. IN ORDER!

That chart has highest, to lowest probabilities, 100% being the highest, and 0% being the lowest. Throughout EACH TARGET AREA you will see percentage amounts for that Severe catagory. Add the percentages at the end, and come up with a number in percent. Divide that by the number by 700 and move the decimal over 2 times to the right to get your number value. That will be the percent that thunderstorm will become SEVERE if they happen to develop in that area! Let's begin!


FOLLOW THE CHART VALUES BELOW!

Base Zone setup.

Zone 2
Lifting Mechanism will be a Cold Front sliding across the area.
Dewpoint Forecast 56= 50%
Surface Temperature= 0%
Low Level Jet inflow= 0%
Surface Moisture Carrying Wind= 100%
700MB Dry Air Carrying wind= 100%
Upper Level Jet Stream is 90 knots= 25%

CAPE INDEX is 0= 0%

Expect Hail Size: DONT ADD WITH THE SEVERE POTENTIAL %! HOW TO DO THIS AT BOTTOM!
650 C temp= 75%
Dry air at 700MB?= 100%
CAPE Values= 50%
Jet Stream= 50%
Dewpoint= 0%
Everything adds to 3/4 inch hail or SEVERE THRESHOLD.

Total Value 39.28<-----To get this number add all the values EXCEPT THE HAIL VALUES. Add
them together, and get your number. take that number, and divide by 700. move the decimal to the right 2 times to get your total value number.

Severe Map Color=DARK GREEN<---Total Value number to match range numbers at bottom.
Thunderstorm Map Color=YELLOW<---Match the total value with the map value below.
Prob Map Color=DARK GREEN<---Match the total value with the map value below.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

DEWPOINT FORECAST TABLE.

Greater than 75= 100%
65-74= 75%
55-64= 50%
48-55= 25%
45 and Lower= 0%
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SURFACE TEMPERATURE FORECAST TABLE.

100+ Incredibly buoyant (if dewpoint greater than 55)= 100%
90-99+ Extremely buoyant (if dewpoint greater than 55)= 80%
80-89+ Very buoyant (if dewpoint greater than 55)= 60%
70-79 Fairly unstable (if dewpoint greater than 55)= 40%
60-69 Marginal (if dewpoint greater than 55)= 20%
Less than 60 Positive temperature and dewpoint advection needed= 0%
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
LOW LEVEL JET INFLOW- MODEL TO LOOK AT IS 850 WIND SPEED CHART

Greater than 70 knots Incredibly fast advection= 100%
50 to 69 knots Very strong low level jet= 75%
30 to 49 knots Descent low level jet= 50%
20 to 29 knots Marginal low level jet= 25%
Less than 20 knots Ill-defined low level jet= 0%
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Surface dewpoint?<---if 55 or higher yes!
700MB Dry Wind? Yes= 100%, No= 0%<----if no color value= 0%
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
250MB UPPER LEVEL JET STREAM SPEED TABLE.

Greater than 200 knots Incredible divergence= 100%
150 to 200 knots Large divergence= 75%
100 to 149 knots Good divergence= 50%
70 to 99 knots Marginal divergence= 25%
Less than 70 knots Small divergence= 0%
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
CAPE VALUE ONLY VALID TILL DAY 3! NO VALUE BEYOND THAT!

CAPE 3500 to 4000 Extremely unstable= 100%
CAPE 2500 to 3500 Very unstable= 75%
CAPE 1000 to 2500 Moderately unstable= 50%
CAPE 250 to 1000 Marginally unstable= 25%
CAPE 250 below Stable= 0%

END OF MATH FOR THE ZONE! ADD THEM UP!
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
VALUES OF HAIL SIZE

FREEZING LEVELS
Temperature Celsius at 500MB(500T) divided by 4 to get the temperature C at 650MB. Look at the Guide Table below, so you don't have to convert it.

650 Temperature Freezing Level in C)

4 degrees= 25%
0 degrees= 50%
-4 degrees= 75%
-8 degrees and above= 100%

DRY AIR??

Dry Air at 700MB???? To do this look at the 700MB spped map(700spd chart) If the wind is coming from between Southwest and Northwest, it's DRY AIR!! If it's coming from anywhere other than that? It's NOT DRY AIR!

Yes= 100%
No=0%

CAPE VALUES!

below 100 CAPE= 0%

500= 25%
1000= 50%
1500= 75%
2000= 100%

250MB Jet Stream Speed, can be found on the 250mb spd chart. Follow the table.

120 knots= 100%
105 knots= 75%
90 knots= 50%
75 knots= 25%
below 70 knots = 0%

DEWPOINT VALUES

55 and lower is 0%
55-58= 100%
59-62= 75%
63-66= 50%
67-70= 25%
70 or higher= 0%

WHEN YOU GET ALL OF THEM, ADD THEM ALL TOGETHER! Your Total, follow this chart.

320 or high= Greater than 3/4 inch hail.
250-319= 3/4 inch hail or SEVERE THRESHOLD.
166.6 - 249.9= 1/2 inch hail.
83.3 - 166.5= 1/4 inch hail.
83.2 or Lower= no hail Forecasted!
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
For an idea how these maps go visit my website at
http://www.powow.com/sciencesky/scww1.html

TOTAL VALUE NUMBER CHARTS!<------How you make the map!


SEVERE PROBABILITY MAP
30.00 - 35.70(BLUE)
35.71 - 41.41(DARK GREEN)
41.42 - 47.11(LIGHT GREEN)
47.12 - 52.82(YELLOW)
52.83 - 58.53(ORANGE)
58.54 - 64.24(RED)
64.25+ (MAGENTA)

ON THUNDERSTORM MAP
30-39-Weak
40-49-Strong
50-59-Severe
60-69-High Risk
70+ -Very High Risk

THUNDERSTORM PROB MAP
30.00 - 38.00= 00-20%(BLUE)
38.01 - 46.01= 20-40%(DARK GREEN)
46.02 - 54.02= 40-60%(LIGHT GREEN)
54.03 - 58.03= 60-70%(YELLOW)
58.04 - 62.04= 70-80%(ORANGE)
62.05 - 66.05= 80-90%(RED)
66.06 - 70.06= 90-100%(MAGENTA)
____________________________________________________________________________________________
HELICITY VALUE IS SAID AT THE END AND WILL TELL THE PEOPLE IF THE STORM WILL BE IN A ROTATIONAL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT!

VALUES OF HELICITY ARE

150-299 Weak Tornadoes Possible. F0-F1
300-449 Strong Tornadoes Possible. F2-F3
450+ Violent Tornadoes Possible. F4-F5


That sounds pretty cool. Alot of neat math and all in there.

[Colin]

Yes, he is surprisingly accurate with his forecasts. He is an Admin on my board: http://thestormroomforums.ipbhost.com if you want to check it out.

His site and my forum are combined.