The upcoming system looks a little more interesting for North Carolina ...
Furthermore, some light mixing possible in Eastern North Carolina late tonight and early Wednesday.
Updated Forecast Discussion
Also, not mentioned was the potential for heavier sustained rainfall later in the period (Fri-Sat) timeframe for Central Florida.
Updated CAD and system Prognostic discussion
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Stormsfury
- Category 5
- Posts: 10549
- Age: 53
- Joined: Wed Feb 05, 2003 6:27 pm
- Location: Summerville, SC
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Stormsfury
- Category 5
- Posts: 10549
- Age: 53
- Joined: Wed Feb 05, 2003 6:27 pm
- Location: Summerville, SC
posted a forecast discussion online at my website earlier today.
I had a bowling league tonight at 6:15 pm, and just got back home about 30 minutes ago. Checking some of the latest model runs ... still some initialization errors, but again, not enough to stray from the current discussion posted earlier ... as a matter of fact, the discussion online already alluded to the fact that a low would develop in the GOM, and then redevelop in Miller B type Fashion off the Carolina Coast and move ENE most likely out to sea.
quote:
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When the Eta, GFS and Euro lose the storm in one evening, you know it's not going to happen.
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The 00z RGEM is storm cancel also...
However, that lead wave looks to put down some good QPF in Virginia ... However, from DC north, doesn't look very good ....
The models want to develop a stronger lead wave in which would force the second system behind it further south and weaker, the storm then blows up but way too late as it is too disorganized going off the coast, and phases too late for any appreciable meaning to anyone.
I realized as the AG gradient continued to show on some of the models that it either had to force this first low either West of the Appalachians, or further south under the wedging backdoor CF and then develop a secondary development off the Carolina Coast in a better organized baroclinic zone.
With that said, the models at face value only - would only put down some light snows as far north as Southern PA, and Southern NJ, and that's as far north as it goes.
I had a bowling league tonight at 6:15 pm, and just got back home about 30 minutes ago. Checking some of the latest model runs ... still some initialization errors, but again, not enough to stray from the current discussion posted earlier ... as a matter of fact, the discussion online already alluded to the fact that a low would develop in the GOM, and then redevelop in Miller B type Fashion off the Carolina Coast and move ENE most likely out to sea.
quote:
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
When the Eta, GFS and Euro lose the storm in one evening, you know it's not going to happen.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The 00z RGEM is storm cancel also...
However, that lead wave looks to put down some good QPF in Virginia ... However, from DC north, doesn't look very good ....
The models want to develop a stronger lead wave in which would force the second system behind it further south and weaker, the storm then blows up but way too late as it is too disorganized going off the coast, and phases too late for any appreciable meaning to anyone.
I realized as the AG gradient continued to show on some of the models that it either had to force this first low either West of the Appalachians, or further south under the wedging backdoor CF and then develop a secondary development off the Carolina Coast in a better organized baroclinic zone.
With that said, the models at face value only - would only put down some light snows as far north as Southern PA, and Southern NJ, and that's as far north as it goes.
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